The new Premier League season is almost upon us!
As has become tradition, here are my best bets from the specials markets…
PFA Player of the Year
Rodri – 50/1 (Various)
Erling Haaland got all the headlines in last season’s Manchester City team and, of course, goals win matches and, therefore, trophies.
But I’d argue Rodri played just as a big a part; he was immense in his midfield role.
The Spaniard is usually described as a defensive midfielder but his ability to get forward in Pep Guardiola’s fluid formation also sees him contribute at the other end of the pitch – there were plenty of shots and four goals last season, including the winner in the Champions League final.
In terms of distribution, there’s no-one better in taking the ball off the back line and picking passes to get attacks going – Rodri has a number of games when he made at least 100 passes.
OK, more defensive-minded players face a bigger battle than the goalscorers and playmakers in winning this award but there are examples who have bucked the trend, N’golo Kante winning this prize in 2016/17.
He’s actually the perfect example – like Rodri, Kante had credit in the bank having been a major star in Leicester’s title-winning side the season before.
Rodri has done that, albeit with the same club, but the thing in his favour here is that Kevin de Bruyne is already a two-time winner, while Haaland is a near-certainty when last year’s going is finally awarded later this month.
Both could suffer from voting fatigue among their peers and I think Rodri has a much better chance than his odds suggest.
Top goalscorer
Phil Foden – 100/1 each way (Various; ¼, 1-4)
Players are big prices have regularly placed in the Premier League top scorer market and that’s the way I usually approach this betting heat – seeking each-way value.
And if there’s a player who’s capable of jumping out of the pack to challenge for a place in that top four this season, then I feel Foden could be it.
The departure of Ilkay Gundogan and Riyad Mahrez should lead to more game-time for the England international, who will be aiming to force his way into Gareth Southgate’s Euro 2024 starting XI.
Adding a few more goals to his output would certainly help on that front and I suspect Pep Guardiola will be demanding it from Foden, especially if he’s given more chances centrally which, given the hole left by Gundogan, is more than possible.
Foden scored 11 Premier League goals last season and will clearly need to get into the upper teens to stand a chance but that’s far from impossible and he’s worth a small punt at 100/1.
Player goals
Evan Ferguson over 8.5 goals – 17/20 (Unibet, Grosvenor Sport)
The Brighton teenager was a major eyecatcher last season, even though his game time was limited.
However, when given the chance, he nearly always impressed and the young Irishman is surely pushing to start regularly this term.
If that happens – and it should – then nine goals should be well within his range.
He already looks an all-round striker – big and strong in the air but also skilful and good with the ball at his feet.
Ferguson looks a star in he making and is more than capable of landing this bet in what was a free-scoring Brighton team last season.
Martin Odegaard 12+ goals – 7/2 (betway)
Unibet seem to have under-rated Odegaard here.
Yes, the Gunners will play slightly differently in midfield following the departure of Granit Xhaka and the arrival of Declan Rice and Kai Havertz.
But Odegaard will surely remain their key player in that area – he was arguably the biggest reason why Arsenal sustained a title challenge for so long last season.
His driving runs from midfield resulted in 15 Premier League goals so 7/2 about 12 this time around immediately looks big.
While Arsenal may suffer a drop-off, it’s hard to see it being a big one given the youth of their squad – last season’s experience should have served them well and the vast majority remain hugely motivated.
It can be argued the new singings will enhance what was a goal-filled team, especially in home games, and I see no reason why Odegaard is going to slip back towards the 10-goal mark, as this market suggests.
Yoane Wissa over 6.5 goals – 17/20 (Unibet, Grosvenor Sport)
With Ivan Toney banned until the new year, expect Wissa to start the campaign up front – he and Bryan Mbeumo often formed a two-man attack when Toney was absent last season.
And they enjoyed plenty of success.
Brentford won four and drew one of those Toney-less games with Wissa scoring in four of them.
That bodes well for this bet, one the DR Congo international has landed in the past two seasons.
Last term he finished with seven despite only starting 16 games (he came on as sub in each of the other 22).
I’d expect him to score more this season given the circumstances.
Shots on target
Darwin Nunez most shots on target – 14/1 each way (betway, ¼ 1-3)
Nunez looks a good each-way bet in this market.
In his maiden Premier League season, the Uruguayan finished seventh in the 2022/23 but played considerably fewer games than all of those above him.
Injury permitting, that should change this time around and the underlying data for Nunez is strong.
In terms of shots on target per 90 minutes, Nunez finished top of the pile last season (with a figure of 1.86), while he was also the only player to have more than four shots per 90 (4.46 with the next best being 3.81).
One of the favourites, Harry Kane, isn’t even certain to be a runner here at time of writing and, to me, Nunez looks to have a strong chance of placing given Liverpool are expected to improve having revamped their midfield and having Luis Diaz fully fit again.
James Maddison 27+ shots on target – 15/8 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
I considered backing Spurs new boy Maddison for 12+ goals at 3/1 (Paddy Power) but feel this is the better bet.
Maddison managed 27 shots on target last season in a struggling Leicester side, while the year before it was 33.
Yes, Tottenham are in transition – even more so if Harry Kane leaves – but Maddison has been signed to play a key part in that change.
He loves a shot and Ange Postecoglou will likely give him licence to continue to do what he does best – carry the ball forward and cause problems around the box.
15/8 isn’t the right price here, I’m sure.