The 2021/22 Premier League season starts on Friday (August 13).
Having trawled through the plethora of markets available, as has become something of a tradition, here are my 10 best bets for what lies ahead.
Lowest-scoring team
Burnley – 8/1 (William Hill)
I had some success in this market last season, picking out 12/1 winners Sheffield United – a bet that never really looked like losing.
I mention this not just to blow my own trumpet but to draw parallels between the Blades and Burnley.
Like Sheffield United 12 months ago, Burnley come into a new season having really struggled at the end of the last – they lost seven of their last nine and finished just one place above the relegation zone.
They scored only 33 goals in their 38 games – the third-lowest total.
The Blades ‘won’ this market by netting only 20 times, although that’s an exceptionally low figure with which to triumph.
It’s usually one in the mid- to late-20s required – Fulham’s second-lowest total last season of 27 is the sort of figure we’re looking for.
It won’t take Burnley much to slip back to that. After all, only one of their players scored more than three times last season. If Chris Wood – who top-scored with 12 – fails to fire or gets injured, the Clarets could be in big trouble.
They failed to score in 17 of 38 last season and have never been the greatest attacking side – a possession figure of 43.5% helps show how they set out to defend well and aim to edge games where they can.
As the market suggests, the main threats come from the newly-promoted clubs but Ivan Toney’s presence in an attack-minded Brentford side has many suggesting they could go well.
The Londoners netted 79 times in the Championship last season. Norwich only hit four fewer and with many of their squad having the experience of the 2019/20 Premier League campaign under their belts, they should score more than the 26 they managed two seasons ago.
Watford look the right favourites – they scored only 63 in 46 Championship games as they won promotion – but the Hornets bagged 36 two seasons ago and I don’t see them being completely outclassed.
At 8/1, Burnley look good value here.
Find the bet: Football/Competitions/English Premier League/Outrights/Team To Score The Least Goals
Season match bets
Crystal Palace to beat Brighton – 9/4 (Betfred, William Hill, bet365)
Bookie opinion seems to suggest Crystal Palace’s summer clear-out will lead them into danger, whereas Brighton are deemed a team on the up.
The latter’s strong expected-goals (xG) performance last season will have a lot to do with that. However, there’s been no striking arrival to put the poor finishing ghost to rest, while at the back Ben White has been sold and, as yet, he hasn’t been replaced.
While I certainly see how Brighton can improve, I’m far from convinced they’ll be flying up the table and massively improving on last season’s tally of 41 points.
That was three fewer than Palace, who have actually finished above Brighton in all four seasons since the Seagulls returned to the top flight. The margins of ‘victory’ in this match bet have been 3-2-13-4.
Yes, Palace have lost a lot of players, and taken a risk by replacing Roy Hodgson with Patrick Vieira in the dugout.
But opinion seems to have changed from May when you’d often hear ‘Palace need freshening up’ to now when it’s more ‘oh, Palace have taken a massive gamble and could be in trouble’.
Yes, I can see a scenario where things go wrong for Palace but I also feel there’s a decent potential upside to their new-look squad, one which still features Wilfried Zaha and Christian Benteke, who looked rejuvenated in the second half of last season.
Joachim Andersen and Conor Gallagher were both relegated last season but both caught the eye in sinking ships and look good signings, as does young defender Marc Guehi, who almost helped Swansea into the top flight last term.
Palace will also hope teenage winger Michael Olise follows in the footsteps of Eberechi Eze, who shone last season but is sadly injured for the first half of this campaign.
Full-back Tyrick Mitchell is another youngster who has already established himself in the side and I see enough in this Palace line-up to do OK.
While Brighton are the correct favourites in this market, I don’t think Palace should be anything like 9/4 shots and will back them accordingly.
Find the bet: Betfred/Football/Premier League/Premier League 2021-22 – Season Match Bets
PFA awards
Reece James to be PFA Young Player of the Year – 9/1 (William Hill)
It’s fair enough that Jadon Sancho and Phil Foden head this market – after all the prize is usually won by an attacking player.
But that train of thought should not rule out the modern-day full-back, or indeed wing-back where James will play plenty of his football under Thomas Tuchel this season.
That was where he lined up in the Champions League final in May and the 21-year-old can be expected to be a big-game player once more for Chelsea this term.
James is very much following in the footsteps of Trent Alexander-Arnold, the man who won this award two seasons ago.
Arguably he no longer following. Certainly in Gareth Southgate’s mind, he appears to have overtaken the Liverpool man, with the defensive side of his game deemed superior.
And it is this burgeoning rivalry which actually improves James’ chances, in my eyes.
All the chatter about right-backs in the England squad will ensure the likes of James, Alexander-Arnold and Kyle Walker grab plenty of column inches and airtime. While the players choose the winner of this award, don’t think what media are talking about doesn’t have a part to play.
TAA’s surging runs down the right for Liverpool produced many assists in his award-winning 2019/20 season and James looks capable of adding that output to his game – he certainly covers a lot of ground down that flank where he is very much involved in attack and defence.
I’m expecting Chelsea to very much to provide a title race this season and that will only boost James’ hopes here – the last four young players of the year have represented the eventual champions.
Sancho seems less likely to be involved in the title race – the odds suggest so too – while Foden will be trying to win this gong back-to-back and that’s only been achieved four times in the award’s 48-year history (for the record, it’s Dele Alli, Wayne Rooney, Robbie Fowler and Ryan Giggs).
At more than twice the price, I like the look of James here.
Find the bet: Football/Competitions/English Premier League/Outrights/PFA Young Player Of The Year
Team goals
Liverpool to score 75+ Premier League goals – 4/5 (BetVictor)
Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool attack and score goals.
As an Everton fan, I say this grudgingly, but, come on, they are a good side to watch.
I very much see last season as a blip. After all, there were good reasons for them dropping from first to third.
Virgil van Dijk missed most of the campaign – a massive blow – but he was far from the only one absent for long periods.
Frankly, the Reds did remarkably well to first stay in the title race until January and then, after an awful couple of months, recover to finish in the top four.
With Van Dijk and Joe Gomez fit again, midfielders restored to their proper positions and a fearsome attack still in place – one bolstered by the shrewd signing of Diogo Jota, another who didn’t get to show his true worth for much of last season due to injury – expect Liverpool to be much closer to the top of the table this time around.
The goals should flow too and that’s the best way I’ve found to back the Reds this term.
In Klopp’s full seasons, their Premier League goal tallies have been (most recent first): 68-85-89-84-78.
Essentially, they’ve reached the 75 mark in all bar last season and they’ve smashed through it on three on the five occasions.
Mo Salah and Sadio Mane virtually guarantee goals – don’t be fooled by African Cup of Nations talk; there’s a good chance they will miss only two league matches – while I’d expect Jota to be chipping in with plenty too this season.
You can always argue Liverpool don’t score enough from midfield but they haven’t needed to in the past and I’m confident they’ll be back to their old goalscoring ways in 2021/22.
Find the bet: Football/Specials/Team Specials/Liverpool Season Specials 2021/22
Player goals
Fabio Silva to score 10+ Premier League goals – 25/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Now here’s a bet which looks overpriced.
Silva was a big-money buy at Wolves last summer and it’s fair to say he didn’t really live up to the billing, scoring only four times.
That said, he’s still only 19 and was always bought with the future in mind. Even the player himself would probably admit he wasn’t ready to play as many games as he was forced to following Raul Jimenez’s horrific injury in the early stages of the campaign.
However, that experience may stand him in good stead this season under a new manager, one who has already started the Portuguese – and seen him score – in pre-season.
The obvious problem is admittedly how often Silva does make the starting XI.
He didn’t for the weekend’s final warm-up against Celta Vigo, although those who started ahead of him failed to score as Wolves were beaten 1-0.
But I still see some value in a price of 25/1, even if Silva is regarded as the second-choice centre forward.
When given his chance – and plenty of substitute appearances look guaranteed at the very least – he’ll be playing in front of goal in a team likely to take a more attacking approach under Bruno Lage.
Knock a few in as a sub and the pressure is applied to a manager.
I’ll have a small play at 25s.
Find the bet: Betfair/Football/Competitions/English Football/English Premier League/Outrights/#OddsOnThat – EPL Player Specials 2021/22/#OddsOnThat – Player Goals
Jadon Sancho to score 15+ Premier League goals – 14/1 (bet365)
Perhaps another bet destined to be labelled ‘value loser’ but I have little doubt this is the wrong price.
BetVictor certainly think so – they have the same bet at 5/4.
Of course, both prices are incorrect – Sky Bet’s 4/1 looks more like it – but I’ll happily back the biggest odds.
The Manchester United new boy managed 17 league goals for Borussia Dortmund in 2019/20, while his ‘breakthrough’ campaign the season before saw him bag 12.
Admittedly last season Sancho dropped to only eight as he lost form in the first half of the season but he looks guaranteed starts, even if he’s occasionally rested ahead of Champions League games, following his £73million move to Old Trafford.
He’ll slot into a team which scored plenty of goals last season – only champions Man City netted more than their 73. They were particularly ruthless against sides in the bottom half, winning 15 of 20 such matches and scoring 46 times.
In short, there should be chances for Sancho this season.
He may not get to 15 league goals but at 14/1 I’ll happily pay to find out if whether he does.
Find the bet: Soccer/England Premier League/Outrights/Competition Specials
Dele Alli to score 5+ Premier League goals – 4/5 (BetVictor)
Let’s keep this short and sweet.
Dele Alli scored no Premier League goals last season, almost certainly a victim of Jose Mourinho’s management style – the Portuguese has a track record of making a scapegoat of someone.
But just like Luke Shaw rose again, so too can Alli.
His other Tottenham seasons have brought league goal totals of 8-5-9-18-10. Basically he’s landed this bet in every season bar the last.
With Mourinho gone, new boss Nuno Espirito Santo is ready to give Alli a chance – the England international has started in all five pre-season games so far and scored in two of them.
I wouldn’t go so far to say this bet is nailed on but there’s plenty to suggest it’s got a great chance of landing.
Find the bet: Football/Specials/Team Specials/Tottenham Season Specials 2021/22
Harvey Barnes to score over 6.5 Premier League goals – 17/20 (Unibet)
I don’t see why Barnes’ goal line is so low for the forthcoming season.
Last term he’d bagged nine in 25 games before a season-ending knee injury.
The winger, who loves to cut in an get a shot away, was very much in the England squad conversation at the time having made his debut for the Three Lions in October.
His goal output improved from six the season before after he was pushed further forward, being very much part of a front four rather than being seen as a left-sided midfielder.
If, however, you are worried by that six figure, it’s worth mentioning that in 2018/19 he netted 10 times in a season which saw him play in both the Premier League for Leicester and the Championship for West Brom.
Any fears about match sharpness following a long-term injury were dispelled in the Community Shield when Barnes produced a livewire performance and I’d expect his goal tally to again be above the 6.5 line.
Find the bet: Football/Outright/England/Premier League/Other (Premier League)/Harvey Barnes Markets 2021/2022
Player assists
Trent Alexander-Arnold to assist over 8.5 Premier League goals – 17/20 (Unibet)
I’ve already mentioned I expect Liverpool to return to something like their title-winning best and if that’s the case then Alexander-Arnold should be winning this bet.
The Reds seems highly unlikely to change the way they set up and therefore TAA will continue to play a massive part in their attack down the right-hand side.
There are few better crossers of the ball on the run in the Premier League, while he’s also on most free-kicks and corners.
Alexander-Arnold ‘only’ managed seven assists last season but he was up at 13 in the title-winning campaign and 12 the season before that.
In a side full of goals, he’s more than capable of hitting double figures again.
Find the bet: Football/Outright/England/Premier League/Other (Premier League)/Trent Alexander-Arnold Markets 2021/2022
Player cards
John McGinn to collect over 7.5 Premier League cards – evens (Unibet)
I like a card bet and this looks a decent one across the season as a whole.
McGinn has a great track record for troubling the referees – last season he was booked a league-high 12 times for Aston Villa.
In Villa’s promotion-winning season he was carded no fewer than 14 times, while in his last campaign in the Scottish Premiership he collected 12 cards for Hibs.
That means he’s hit 12 cards in three of the last four seasons. The odd-one-out was a campaign in which has broke his ankle and missed several months.
To land this bet, he needs only eight.
I say eight. It should be noted that a straight red card is considered two cards for settlement purposes, while a second-yellow red is classed as three.
Even money looks a steal.
Find the bet: Football/Outright/England/Premier League/Other (Premier League)/John McGinn Markets 2021/2022