Andy Schooler’s best bets for the 2022/23 Premier League season.
PFA Player of the Year
Thiago Alcantara – 25/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Betfred)
There are familiar names at the top of this market – think Kevin de Bruyne, Mo Salah – plus new boy Erling Haaland and given attacking players tend to win this prize, that’s fair enough.
But take a look further down the market and the name which stands out to me is that of Liverpool midfielder Thiago.
The Spaniard is about to start his third season in English football but the first two have both been disrupted by injuries. If he stays fit, he’s got a decent shot at this prize.
Thiago oozes class with his range of passing arguably only bettered by De Bruyne, while the defensive side of his game is also excellent – he’s regularly found harrying opponents and winning the ball back.
He showed all that and more in the recent Community Shield and if he continues in that vein, his price in this market looks sure to shorten.
Thiago’s mastery of his position will ensure he’s much-talked about in the media – and that’s a point I feel is important when it comes to this award.
Yes, it’s the players who choose the winner but I have long believed they are influenced to a certain degree by what they read and see on the TV. It’s not difficult to envisage a Sky Sports package or two on Thiago’s ability in the coming months and such things tend to have a media snowball effect.
Even if you give my theory no credence, it’s worth noting what Declan Rice has had to say about Thiago recently. Talking above toughest opponents, he put the Liverpool star in the same bracket as De Bruyne, Eden Hazard and David Silva.
The first two are both former recipients of this award, while Silva is one of the best never to win it. He was, however, named in the PFA team of the year on three occasions.
Admittedly, players in his position aren’t the most regular winners of this award but it’s not that long since Ngolo Kante was named PFA player of the year.
With Liverpool set for another title challenge, Thiago looks worth a small-stakes punt.
Golden Boot
Anthony Martial – 80/1 (bet365, sportingbet)
OK, this is a bet which relies rather heavily on Cristiano Ronaldo’s future lying away from the club but at the price it’s one I can’t ignore.
Ronaldo clearly doesn’t really want to be at Old Trafford any more – his agent has spent much of the summer trying to find him a Champions League club – and he’s barely played in pre-season, largely due to “personal reasons”.
And even when he did pull on the famous red shirt last weekend, his day ended with him leaving the stadium early.
Ronaldo’s past achievements warrant huge respect but in the here and now he’s failed to impress new boss Eric ten Hag, who has labelled his behaviour “unacceptable”.
That’s in contrast to Martial.
At the end of last season it was the Frenchman whose future looked more than likely to lie away from Old Trafford – he spent the second half of the campaign on loan at Sevilla.
But he’s knuckled down in pre-season and has got his rewards – three goals and a string of impressive displays as the Red Devils’ centre forward.
Ten Hag sets his teams up to attack and if Martial is playing the middle of the front line, he’s sure to get chances.
He’ll thrive on Christian Eriksen’s through balls, while it’s surely only a matter of time before Jadon Sancho rediscovers the creative form which made him a star at Borussia Dortmund.
It’s worth remembering that the last time Martial played a full season as United’s centre forward (in 2019/20) he notched 17 Premier League goals in 32 appearances.
A repeat could easily land a player who is still only 26 a place in this market.
A perhaps-safer alternative is to back Martial to score 15+ league goals at 10/1 with bet365.
Yes, these could crash and burn but at the prices I’m prepared to pay to find out.
Top team goalscorers
Leon Bailey to be top Aston Villa scorer – 18/1 (Unibet, Grosvenor Sport)
Like Martial, Bailey has caught the eye in pre-season and he looks a big price in this market.
After a debut Villa Park season which was ruined by injury, it’s easy to forget why the Jamaican was signed in the first place – and the bookies do seem to have.
Look back to his final Bundesliga season with Bayer Leverkusen (2020/21) and you see Bailey scored 15 times in all competitions, including nine in the league – a tally he also managed in 2017/18.
He loves to stride forward and get a shot away – he may well be worth following in related props markets this season – while those concerned he won’t take to a different style of football should note he’s netted 13 goals in his 38 European games over the years.
After two goals during an impressive pre-season campaign, Bailey looks likely to make Villa’s starting XI when the real action gets under way.
But even if he drops out at some stage, he’s the sort of player capable of making a big impact as a substitute.
Ollie Watkins won this market with just 11 goals last season. He’s the right favourite again this time around but I certainly think Bailey should be a lot shorter than 18s.
Jack Harrison to be top Leeds scorer – 10/1 (bet365, Betfred)
Harrison scored 10 league goals in a poor Leeds side last season, narrowly failing to win this market – the now-departed Raphinha got 11.
The bookies expect Patrick Bamford to return to his free-scoring ways (at least relatively) but I’m far from convinced.
Bamford did score 17 times in Leeds’ first season back in the big time but he has played very little in the past year (it’s worth noting that was down to three different injuries, not just one issue) and he returns to a team a far cry from the confident, Bielsa-ball-playing one in which he starred in 2020/21.
Raphinha and Kalvin Phillips, the club’s two best players, were both sold in the summer and if Jesse Marsch’s foreign Red Bull imports don’t settle well in their new league, it could be another season of struggle.
In short, a similar return to last year could easily win this market for Harrison, who has been a favourite of new boss Marsch. Indeed four of his goals came in his last nine games under the American.
A word of warning though – as I write, Harrison is reportedly the subject of a big-money bid from Newcastle so you may want to hold off until Saturday to see how the ground lies.
Season match bets
Crystal Palace to beat Aston Villa – 7/4 (Sky Bet)
Palace finished three points ahead of Villa last season and I just don’t see why they are such a big price for a repeat.
Probably the biggest argument is that they’ve lost Connor Gallagher from the midfield – his loan spell is over and he’s back at Chelsea now.
But Cheick Doucoure is a highly-rated new signing in the midfield, while I’m a big fan of what Patrick Vieira has done at Selhurst Park so far – don’t forget the mess Palace were in last summer when a huge chunk of their squad was out of contract.
I’m certainly relishing him finding a way of moulding Wilfried Zaha, Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise into an exciting forward line.
As for Villa, there seems to be a feeling that there’s a lot of untapped potential at Villa Park but I don’t subscribe.
A lot of the hype seems based on manager Steven Gerrard’s playing record. Yes, he improved them after a poor start under Dean Smith last season but a finish of 14th was nothing to write home about with only Everton, Watford and Norwich losing more games.
Diego Carlos looks a good singing at the back and the aforementioned Leon Bailey should get more chances to shine this term but I still think the price discrepancy between the sides is too large.
Assists
Dejan Kulusevski most assists (each way) – 33/1 (bet365, ¼, 1-3)
Kulusevski was an excellent January signing for Spurs and while the likes on Son Heung-min grabbed the headlines, he really impressed during the second half of last season.
He didn’t make his debut until February but in the 18 league games he played after that (14 starts), he produced no fewer than eight assists. This market was won by Mo Salah with a total of 13.
Such stats beg the question what could the Swede do over a full season in a side improved further by the latest transfer window, one now being tipped in some quarters as potential title contenders?
With targets such as Harry Kane and Son to supply, Kulusevski should manage plenty more assists this term.
I guess one of the problems is the signing of Richarlison, who could limit Kulusevski’s game time but surely it would be unwise to sideline a man who was key player in the team’s upturn in the second half of 2021/22.
It’s also worth pointing out that while Richarlison looks sure to make Brazil’s World Cup squad, Kulusevski will get six weeks off in November/December to leave him refreshed for the second half of the campaign.
He looks worth a play in this market each way – a place in the top three would be enough to earn a decent profit.
Andy Robertson over 6.5 assists – 3/5 (Unibet, Grosvenor Sport)
Arguably the best bet on this list.
Robertson’s last four seasons have delivered assist tallies of 10-7-12-11.
Basically he’s hit double figures in all three campaigns in which Liverpool have been title contenders – they’ve either won the league or taken the race to the final day in those seasons.
The ‘disappointing’ seven figure came in 2020/21 when Liverpool’s mid-season slump cost them dearly but the fact is Robertson still landed this bet.
He should do so again as there seems little reason to expect his figures to tail off.
If anything, the arrival of Darwin Nunez, who is strong in the air, increases the chance of Robertson’s excellent crosses finding the net, while he can also be expected to supply Mo Salah, Diogo Jota and Luis Diaz at points during the season.
Sadly the 4/5 available when I started writing this preview has gone but I’m still happy to back this at 3/5.
It can be found under Premier League/Outrights/Other (Premier League)/Andrew Robertson Markets 2022/23.
Goal contributions
Dejan Kulusevski over 12.5 goal contributions at 7/10 (Unibet, Grosvenor Sport)
We’re talking goals and assists added together for this market and Kulusevski will need 13 to land the bet.
That’s something he managed to do in just 18 appearances last season, scoring five times and assisting on eight occasions.
Even if he’s not starting every week (a possibility mentioned above) he should still be able to hit the mark required.
For reference, the market is listed under Premier League/Outrights/Other (Premier League)/Dejan Kulusevski Markets 2022/23.
It’s also worth mentioning here that the Spurs star is 17/20 with the same firm to score over 6.5 goals and 21/10 with Paddy Power/Betfair to provide 10+ assists.
Shots
Mo Salah most shots on target – 7/2 (betway)
betway have interestingly priced up a market about which player will have the most shots on target in this season’s Premier League and they are paying a quarter of the odds for the first four.
Mo Salah is the favourite but even at 7/2 he looks the bet.
Since arriving at Anfield, Salah has won this market three times in five seasons – and his victories have been by some big margins. He was five clear of Harry Kane last season, won by 11 in 2019/20 and 14 in 2018/19.
In the other two campaigns, he finished runner-up, losing by just one shot to Kane in 2020/21. The Spurs man, who also won in 2017/18, is at 7/1 – another price worth considering.
The potential fly in the ointment is the arrival in the Premier League of Erling Haaland, although he does face the issue of finding his feet in a new league, while his Manchester City team-mates will need to adapt to him too.
In any case, Haaland was only eighth for shots on target in last season’s Bundesliga. While injuries kept him a little further down than he might have been, he was still only fourth when you compare SOT with minutes played.
On that metric, list winner Robert Lewandowski managed 2.35 shots on target per 90 minutes played; Haaland just 1.46.
Haaland was playing for the second-best team in Germany last season and it’s not that hard to envisage him playing for the second-best team in England this time around.
In short, I prefer to back the man with the proven form in this market and that’s Salah, another player who gets a mid-season break with Egypt having failed to qualify for the World Cup.
Cards
Philip Billing most cards – 20/1 (Unibet, Grosvenor Sport)
Joao Palhinha most cards – 20/1 (Unibet), Grosvenor Sport)
Unibet have chalked up a market on which player will receive the most cards in this season’s Premier League and it looks worth throwing a couple of big-priced darts at.
First up is Bournemouth midfielder Billing, who picked up 13 yellows in the Championship last season to add to his nine the year before. His last Premier League campaign brough eight cards.
Billing will likely need to hit double figure again if he’s to land the 20/1 here but the 6ft 6in midfielder, who is all arms and legs, looks capable of hitting that mark with referees well aware of his ability to foul.
I also like the look of Premier League new boy Palhinha.
Fulham’s new defensive midfielder was fourth for tackles made in Portugal last season when playing for Sporting Lisbon having finished top the season before. He was also placed highly in the equivalent Champions League list.
In terms of cards, he’s managed 7-7-9 in his last three seasons but a move to a new league where referees may find his physical style easy to punish could push up those numbers.
Strong but not the most athletic, it’s certainly not hard to see him being overworked in that defence-shielding role given Fulham are widely expected to struggle.
For reference, the market is listed under Premier League/Outrights/Other (Premier League)/General Player Markets 2022/23.