Matthew Lowton – Burnley v Southampton (Sat, 1500) – 7/1 (bet365)
Lowton looks set to start ahead of Phil Bardsley at right-back for Burnley and I can’t have him being anywhere near 7/1 for a card.
He was carded in nine of his 24 games for the Clarets last season – seven of 21 in the Premier League. Six of the nine were at Turf Morr where this weekend he’s set to come up against the tricky Nathan Redmond, who was one of the league’s top dribblers in 2018/19. Only Wilfried Zaha, Eden Hazard and Raheem Sterling made more dribbles per game.
The reason for the big price appears to be the lenient referee (see below) but even taking that into account, 7/1 still looks massive.
Referee: Graham Scott – Has been one of the top flight’s most lenient refs over the past couple of seasons but last term he produced at least three cards in half of his 18 matches. With Burnley and Southampton being second and sixth respectively in the yellow cards list in 2018/19, you’d expect this match to fit into that three-plus category.
Jefferson Lerma – Bournemouth v Sheffield United (Sat, 1500) – 11/4 (bet365)
Old friend Lerma made this column a pretty profit last season and I can’t resist going back in now he’s out to such a price.
OK, he slowed down on the cards front as he got more used to the English game as last season wore on but the fact is he was still booked in 12 of his 29 Premier League starts, often due to a pull or trip with an opponent trying to break.
His 2018/19 tally came a season after he had been Europe’s most-booked player with 16 in 26 games for Levante.
With a fairly strict ref (see below) in charge, the 11/4 looks tempting enough to get involved.
Referee: Kevin Friend – In terms of yellow cards shown per game, Friend was sixth of the 18 refs who took charge of a Premier League game last season.
Craig Dawson – Watford v Brighton (Sat, 1500) – 9/2 (bet365, Sky Bet)
New signing Dawson is expected to slot into a central defensive role in this game and he’ll likely have to deal with the awkward Glenn Murray, the player who committed the most fouls in the Premier League last season, on his return to the top flight.
Dawson was in the Championship with West Brom last season, collecting 10 cards in 43 games. In his last season in the Premier League he received six in 28 games and the season before that it was 10 in 37.
Essentially, he’s regularly attracting referees’ attention. So are his team-mates – Watford received the most yellow cards in the Premier League in 2018/19 – so there’s every chance ref Craig Pawson (see below) arrives knowing he could be in for a busy afternoon.
This price looks worth a dabble.
Referee: Craig Pawson – Third for most bookings per game in top flight last season, averaging 3.5. He also sent off six players – only Mike Dean produced more reds.
His last visit to Watford saw him controversially send off Troy Deeney so there’s a good chance the crowd will be on his back too. All in all, he looks a good appointment for this bet.
John McGinn – Tottenham v Aston Villa (Sat, 1730) – 12/5 (William Hill, Sky Bet)
In terms of bad discipline, Villa were ranked sixth of the 24 clubs in the Championship last season and it was McGinn who led the way.
He picked up 14 yellows in 43 league games with his tenacious tackling in midfield. It was hardly unepxetced. In 2017/18 he was booked in 18 of his 43 games for Hibs.
I’d fear for how Premier League refs see his game style and can see him going off a lot shorter in a few weeks’ time, especially away to top-four opposition.
I’ll take the 12/5 while I can.
Referee: Chris Kavanagh – Admittedly not the greatest appointment – he was slightly under the average in terms of yellow cards shown last season – but not enough to put me off.