Goalscorer match bet
Gerard Deulofeu to outscore Ruben Neves at 10/11 (Betfred)
Of all the bets I’ve listed in this preview, this is the one I like the most.
A true winger during the early part of his career, Deulofeu played, in the main, in central positions under Javier Gracia last season.
The Watford boss was rewarded too – the Spaniard finished with 10 Premier League goals in his 30 games, while he also lit up the FA Cup semi-final, scoring twice in that match.
With little having changed in the Watford squad this summer, it’s hard to know why he’s the outsider here.
Bet rival Neves plays in a deep-lying midfield role for Wolves and that was reflected in his goal tally of four from 35 league appearances. It wouldn’t be right to say he is a defensive midfielder given his passing contribution, but he certainly doesn’t get into the same sort of areas Deulofeu, at least not with any great regularity.
Yes, the Portuguese star does have a terrific shot on him but I can’t see how he’s going to get anywhere near the number of clear chances Deulofeu will.
The bet is listed under Premier League 2019-20/Goalscorer Match Bets.
Player goals
Ross Barkley to score 10 or more goals – 6/1 (Paddy Power)
Much has changed at Chelsea over the summer. Most notably Sarri-ball is dead and Eden Hazard gone. One may be mourned more than the other.
Frank Lampard will bring a fresh approach and it’s largely expected to be a more attacking one.
Pre-season suggests Ross Barkley will have a bigger part to play. He’s been starting regularly in the last few weeks and has scored in the Blues’ last four friendlies.
I suspect Lampard sees a bit of himself in Barkley, hence why he’s deploying him in an attacking role between the midfield and forwards.
Barkley has revealed Lampard has told him to express himself on the pitch – “don’t be too safe, shoot, try and create chances” – and someone is going to score the goals that Hazard did last season; I’m not convinced Chelsea are about to nose-dive without the Belgian star.
The former Everton man may never have hit double figures in a Premier League season but he’s also never really had a full campaign in a role such as the number 10 one.
Notably, he’s been taking free kicks and penalties in pre-season – and that could be a big factor given the new handball rules and introduction of VAR.
Barkley is far from nailed on to score 10 league goals this season but I don’t think he should be 6/1 to do so.
The bet is listed under Specials/#WhatOddsPaddy/Player Total Goals 2019-20.
Shane Duffy to score five or more goals – 7/1 (Sky Bet)
The Brighton defender scored five times in the Premier League last season.
This pre-season he’s already notched three goals.
Even with a more attacking approach expected from new boss Graham Potter, Brighton aren’t going to be full of goals but that will mean they will still be paying good attention to set-plays which proved a valuable source last season.
That is where the towering Duffy capitalised and he’ll again be a serious aerial threat from corners and free-kicks this season – potentially he could be looked to even more in such situations if Lewis Dunk is sold before this week’s transfer deadline which has been suggested.
Again, the price is simply too big.
The bet is listed under Specials/Premier League RequestABets 19-20.
For those looking for something involving less risk, Betfred offer 7/4 about Duffy notching at least four goals.
Moise Kean to score 10 or more goals – 10/11 (William Hill)
Everton have needed a new Romelu Lukaku for the last two years and now they may finally have found him.
Lukaku was virtually guaranteed to score goals at Everton and Kean looks to be from a similar mould.
The former Juventus man has serious pace and enough physical presence to suggest he’ll cause Premier League defenders plenty of trouble in his debut campaign in England.
Of course, it may take time for Kean to adjust – that’s the risk here – but it’s hard not to see him in the team from an early stage of the season so he should get plenty of chances to shine. He’ll get plenty of chances provided too, with Richarlison, Gylfi Sigurdsson, Bernard and maybe even Wilfried Zaha a creative bunch to play alongside.
Kean scored six Serie A goals last season but did so at a rate of one every 89 minutes. He also scored twice in three internationals for Italy. He’s one of Europe’s rising brightest teenage talents who Everton have done well to attract. He can prove it by hitting double figures in terms of goals.
The bet is listed under Competitions/Premier League/Outrights/Player Season Premier League Goals.
A bigger-priced alternative is to back Kean to be Everton’s top scorer at 11/4 (BetVictor). With him in the team, both Richarlison and Sigurdssson may struggle to match their tallies of 13 from last season.
PFA Awards
David Silva to be named PFA Player of the Year – 20/1 (Unibet, 888Sport)
Long-term followers may be getting a bit tired of me putting Silva up in this market but hear me out.
I tipped him last season at a slightly longer price and he hit favouritism just before Christmas before fading, eventually losing out to Virgil van Dijk.
Still, there’s little doubt he remains highly respected by both media and players – only the latter vote but the former play a part in creating the chatter about who’s hot and who’s not – and he’ll again win plenty of plaudits as a playmaker in a Manchester City side odds-on to win a record-equalling third successive title.
Still very much good enough to hold his own in this star-studded team, the Spaniard has also created the conditions which could see him land the prize.
He’s already revealed this will be his final season at City and I see huge parallels with Ryan Giggs’ PFA success in 2009.
Giggs had never won the award despite a stellar career and has largely handed it for his contribution over the years rather than being the outstanding player of the 2008/09 season.
Like Giggs, Silva has been one of the greatest players in his position of the Premier League era and I can certainly see a scenario where he is rewarded with this award by his peers.
At 20/1, it’s worth a bet to find out.
James Maddison to be named PFA Young Player of the Year – 20/1 (Paddy Power)
While 13 of the last 18 PFA Player of the Year winners have been foreign, it’s been a much different picture when it comes to the Young Player award.
In this category, 14 of the last 18 recipients have been British and I’ve picked out two candidates at decent prices for this season’s prize.
I’ll start with Maddison, who enjoyed an excellent debut season in the Premier League at Leicester in 2018/19, scoring seven times and making the same number of assists.
His form saw him talked about as England material but Gareth Southgate opted to leave him with the under-21s at the end of the season.
Expect that to change in 2019/20 if Maddison continues to perform in the same way – with Leicester tipped as potential challengers to the Big Six, he is likely to attract plenty of attention.
Interestingly, there have been several English winners of this award in the campaign prior to a major tournament.
In 2010 it was James Milner, who duly went to the World Cup. Two years later, Kyle Walker put his name on the trophy before heading off to Euro 2012 and then in 2016 Dele Alli landed the gong.
Maddison fits the pattern and I feel there’s a lot to like about the 20/1 being dangled.
Declan Rice to be named PFA Young Player of the Year – 33/1 (Sky Bet)
He may play in a deeper midfield position but Rice holds claims with similar reasons to Maddison in this market.
As a potential Euro 2020 player for England, he’ll have plenty of eyes upon him this season and if he reproduces his displays of last season he’ll definitely be a contender. If quality breeds quality, the summer additions to the West Ham squad – think Pablo Fornals, Sebastian Haller – would appear to give him every chance of improving.
In many ways, he already appears to have stolen a march on Maddison – Rice has three senior England caps and made the six-man shortlist for this award back in April.
What goes against him is his more defensive role – winners of this prize tend to be attack-minded players – yet Rice has a range of passing which could still make him attractive to his peers who will vote. Clearly many cast theirs for Rice last season.
Again, the price looks a tempting one and worth a nibble.
Top team goalscorer
Nathan Redmond to be top Southampton scorer – 7/1 (bet365, Betfred)
Under the dismal leadership of Mark Hughes, Nathan Redmond failed to score a Premier League goal last season.
However, he sparked to life following the appointment of Ralph Hasenhuttl, who clearly valued the tricky, fleet-footed star.
The Austrian often played Redmond in a more central role and was rewarded with six goals in 22 starts. He finished one goal shy of Danny Ings and James Ward-Prowse in this market.
If Redmond produces that strike-rate again, he should be there or thereabouts.
Ings is well fancied by the layers but even in the season at Burnley which earned him his move to Liverpool he only managed 11 goals, while new signing Che Adams must step up from the Championship – plenty have tried and failed before.
Jordan Ayew to be top Crystal Palace scorer – 20/1 (William Hill)
I have concerns over Crystal Palace, many of which I’ve outlined in this preview I wrote recently for Betfair.
Talk of Wilfried Zaha leaving has intensified again since I wrote that and if he leaves, there’s a massive creative hole in this team. Not only will his goals be missed (he got 10 last season) but also his assists and penalty-winning ability.
The latter was the main reason Luka Milivojevic won this market last season. Without Zaha I don’t see him repeating the feat.
Indeed if Zaha does go then it’s easy to see this market being won with a fairly low number of goals and with that in mind 20/1 about one of the Eagles’ centre forwards is simply too big.
Ayew, one of few squad additions this summer, got seven goals in a poor Swansea side who were relegated in 2017/18.
He’s by no means guaranteed to be Roy Hodgson’s starting choice up front but rival Christian Benteke has hardly nailed down his place either and it is worth noting Ayew started in Palace’s final pre-season game.
There’s plenty of risk here and many will be put off but 20/1 about a centre forward who could start plenty of games is worth a small punt for me.
Total team goals
Arsenal to score 70 or more goals – 5/4 (Paddy Power)
A similar bet to this was my best of the 2018/19 season – on that occasion we got 6/4 about Arsenal reaching at least 65, something they managed with seven games to spare.
The figures have changed this time around but odds-against about the Gunners netting 70 or more still reprsents value.
Here are their goals-for tallies of the last 10 seasons (most recent first): 73, 74, 77, 65, 71, 68, 72, 74, 72, 83.
In summary, they’ve hit the 70 mark in eight of the last 10 campaigns and with a front-line of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – joint winner of the Golden Boot last season – Alexander Lacazette and new signing Nicolas Pepe, I see no reason to suggest they won’t reach it again.
OK, Arsenal may still struggle to return to the top four but if they miss out it seems almost certain that will be do to with their defensive frailties rather than problems at the other end of the field.
The bet is listed under English Premier League/Arsenal Season Specials/#WhatOddsPaddy – Arsenal.
There’s also 7/2 available about Arsenal hitting 75 or more which may interest some.
Season match bet
West Ham to finish above Wolves – 8/5 (Unibet, 888Sport)
Wolves were lauded last season, and rightly so, after an impressive return to the top flight which saw them finish seventh and claim a place in Europe.
However, it is easy to forget that West Ham finished only five points behind them and there are plenty of reasons to think they can bridge that gap in the coming campaign.
For a start, West Ham’s summer recruitment looks strong with Pablo Fornals bringing serious creativity to the midfield, while up front Sebastian Haller has the potential to provide goals in abundance.
He scored 15 in 29 Bundesliga games for mid-table Mainz last term, while he also netted at a rate of one in every two games during his time in the Dutch Eredivisie.
The return to fitness of Manuel Lanzini after a long-term injury is also a massive boost.
Wolves, meanwhile, are having to deal with the early start that the Europa League brings and if they do reach the group stage then their autumn will have a much different look about it.
Even if they bow out before then, the far-from-ideal pre-season is likely to have a negative impact – it certainly has done so with Burnley, Everton and Hull in recent seasons.
Wolves undoubtedly benefited from keeping a settled team last season – they used the fewest players in the league – and even if they aren’t saddled with a host of extra games, they will be fortunate indeed to avoid the injuries and suspensions in the same way they did in 2018/19.
For me, West Ham really shouldn’t be 8/5 in this match bet and warrant support.
This one is under England/Premier League/General Team Markets 2019-20.
Top-10 finish
Burnley to finish in the top half – 8/1 (BlackType)
I’ve long been a believer in there being little in quality between the Premier League’s 17th-placed team and the one finishing 10th and that view forms the basis of my look at the top-10 market.
Burnley are many bookies’ picks for the drop – only Sheffield United and Norwich are considered more likely to go down with some firms – but I feel that’s somewhat disrespectful given what the Clarets have done in the past two seasons.
They famously finished seventh in 2017/18, boss Sean Dyche building an excellent defensive base and using it to full effect.
Last season they failed to back it up, finishing 15th with 14 fewer points, but their campaign is worth a closer look.
Burnley were ill equipped for Europa League football and playing six qualifiers in July and August undoubtedly had a detrimental effect on their domestic season.
However, they did shake off that awful start and in the second half of the campaign, Burnley won 28 points from their 19 matches – more than Everton, Spurs, West Ham and Leicester. Were that to be stretched across a whole season, they would be virtually guaranteed a top-half finish.
Tom Heaton’s return in goal at the midway point appeared to restore defensive confidence and hile he’s gone Nick Pope should slot in seamlessly – remember his performances two years ago took him into the England squad.
Up front Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes formed a real partnership, one which would produce 22 league goals in all. Nineteen of those came in the second half of the season.
If I’m honest, I’d expect Burnley to finish around 12th to 14th but they shouldn’t be 8/1 to squeeze into 10th.
To find this bet, click on Top Leagues/England/English Premier League
If you don’t have a BlackType account, there’s 7/1 much more widely available which I still find perfectly acceptable.