I’ve recently been researching the forthcoming FIFA World Cup on a freelance basis and thought I might as well put that to good use in the shape of some betting previews to kick off my new site, which as you will see is very much in its infancy!
Further previews will follow in the coming days – hopefully by then I’ll have figured out how to edit the site a bit better – with looks at the Golden Boot betting, the groups and a hosts of specials markets planned.
To kick things off though, here’s my assessment of the outright tournament betting…
Best bets:
As you’ll see in some of my previews of the other World Cup markets in the coming days, I like to hunt out a bit of value where possible.
However, the outright market is not the place for that – rarely have the bookies got this badly wrong.
Since 1986, Italy have been the biggest-priced winners at 10/1 (in 2006), while the highest price about any finalist has been the 20/1 you could have got the Germans at in 2002.
Yes, there’s some scope for an each-way bet but little to get the mouth watering.
Essentially it’s likely that the eventual finalists will come from the top six in the betting – none of whom can be backed at bigger than 11/1.
Of those, I’m happy to take on France, Argentina and Belgium.
The French have a fine squad, no doubt, but boss Didier Deschamps has been unable to truly decide who he trusts and, as we saw at Euro 2016, he’s been all too quick to chop and change his line-up.
Up front they certainly look strong with the pace and trickery of Antoine Griezmann, Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele.
N’Golo Kante will likely be one of the best midfielders on show in Russia – Paul Pogba has the potential to be too – but the defence is a worry for me.
Concerns
First choice Laurent Koscielny has already been lost to injury and I don’t think the likes of Samuel Umtiti and Raphael Varane can truly be described as top-drawer defenders.
Even in goal, the usually-reliable Hugo Lloris has not been at his best for Spurs this season.
Similar concerns can be raised over Argentina’s defence, one already shorn of its first-choice keeper (the injured Sergio Romero). It also looks set to rely heavily on Nicolas Otamendi extending a much-improved season with Manchester City.
Like France, Argentina have a forward line to die for. They’ve been able to leave out Mauro Icardi with Lionel Messi, Sergio Aguero, Gonzalo Higuain and Paolo Dybala chosen, but it should be remembered that this is a team which scored just 19 times in 18 qualifiers as they struggled to book their place in the finals, only doing so on the final matchday thanks to a Messi hat-trick.
They have also landed in one of the toughest groups and I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see them flop completely.
Belgium also have star names aplenty but I’m far from convinced that manager Roberto Martinez has the tactical acumen to push them to glory. Significantly, neither does one of his own star players with Kevin de Bruyne delivering this stinging assessment following a 3-3 draw with Mexico in November.
“As long as there is no good tactical system for the team, we are going to face difficulties against countries like Mexico. It’s a pity that we have not yet found a solution.”
A 4-0 victory over Saudi Arabia in March is not enough to suggest everything has been sorted in the ensuing months and neither does an insistence on playing centre-backs in the full-back positions.
This ‘golden generation’ of players has already fallen at the quarter-final stage of both the 2014 World Cup and Euro 2016 and I expect a similar exit in Russia.
So if not those three, who?
I believe Spain, Brazil and Germany all have a fine chance of lifting the famous gold trophy in Moscow’s Luzhniki Stadium on July 15.
Holders Germany always perform at a World Cup, it is said. It’s not exactly that cut and dried but they have reached seven semi-finals in their last nine World Cups, a record no other nation can match.
They look a well-rounded side, one with a significant core from a Bayern Munich team which fell just shy of reaching the Champions League final. Leroy Sane has not even made the squad which says much.
Brazil also look strong – if you can put memories of their 7-1 hammering in the 2014 semis to one side. Some players may need to do so as well and that is definitely a relevant factor.
So too is the fact that star man Neymar has barely played since February due to a broken foot. He made a goalscoring return at the weekend but even he admitted he’s only operating at 80 per cent. Even with more than a week until Brazil’s first game, it’s hard to see how he can be at his best – England fans will remember all about how taking less-than-fully-fit players to a major tournament doesn’t always work out.
They are general 9/2 shots which for me is a tad short and I prefer the chances of Spain at a full two points bigger.
The 2010 champions have again assembled an almighty squad, one which includes the world’s best keeper in David de Gea.
A defence which includes Sergio Ramos and Gerard Pique may not be the very best on show but it’s far from shabby and when you get to the midfield you find real class.
Andres Iniesta and David Silva have to be two of the best creative players of their generation, while the highly-decorated Sergio Busquets provides the platform from which others can play.
Then there’s Isco, a player who has become more precious to boss Julen Lopategui than he is to Real Madrid. He’s turned into a reliable goalscorer for a team which hasn’t settled on a regular front man.
Diego Costa could now fill that role having finally returned to action in January – he has six goals in his last eight internationals.
Spain are unbeaten in 19 games under their current boss, who took over after Euro 2016.
They dropped just two points in a qualifying group which contained Italy and in March destroyed Argentina 6-1 in a friendly. The pair could meet again in the quarter-finals if they both win their groups.
In short, Spain, who will also have Germany on their side of the draw if both are group winners, look well primed for another title tilt and odds of 13/2 look tempting.
I’ve already explained why this market isn’t the best for value hunters but for those who do want a team from further down the betting, you could do worse than back Uruguay or Croatia.
Like Spain, Croatia have some real quality in midfield with Luka Modric, Ivan Rakitic and Mateo Kovacic, while Ivan Perisic links to leading forward Mario Mandzukic.
However, the team as a whole has underperformed of late. They could only finish second to Iceland in qualifying, needing a play-off victory over Greece to reach the finals and recent friendly results have hardly suggested that all their problems have been ironed out.
I prefer the chances of Uruguay who have a strong spine with Edinson Cavani and Luis Suarez likely to be a real handful up top and Atletico Madrid stoppers Diego Godin and Jose Gimenez forming a solid wall in central defence.
It is in midfield where the surprises could come. Inter Milan’s Matias Vecino will have rising star Rodrigo Bentancur (Juventus) for company. It is an area of the team which isn’t talked about much but one which could turn Uruguay into a very well rounded outfit.
They are offered at 33/1 which may tempt some.
They are well drawn having landed in the group containing hosts Russia, who are easily the weakest of the seeds.
A second-round meeting with Portugal will follow if the odds are to be believed and that looks winnable.
That brings into play the ‘to reach the quarter-finals’ market which given the historical trends for World Cup finalists is probably the best way to go (you can get 13/8) if you are considering getting behind Oscar Tabarez’s men.
