Last week was a decent one with DeAndre Yedlin (11/2) among the winners for this column.
We were also a bit unlucky with the Phil Bardsley tip – he didn’t start at right-back for Burnley but his replacement Matt Lowton, a 9/2 shot, did and the theory proved correct.
I’ve got five anytime card suggestions for you this week.
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Simon Francis – Bournemouth v Crystal Palace (Mon 2000) – 5/1 (bet365)
Wilfried Zaha – Bournemouth v Crystal Palace (Mon 2000) – 9/2 (Unibet, 888Sport)
I really like the look of Francis in this one at the price – I’d go so far as to say it’s the best bet of the season so far in this column. We obviously want him to start which isn’t guaranteed but after a decent performance in the midweek Carabao Cup win over Blackburn, I’d expect him to play at right-back (maybe right-sided centre-back) with Eddie Howe changing his league line-up around following last week’s 4-0 hammering at Burnley. There are multiple reasons for the confidence and when put together they make 5/1 a tasty price indeed. First, we’ve got a disciplinarian in charge (see below). Secondly, Francis is something of a card collector. He received eight in 32 appearances last season, including one in this very fixture. Thirdly – and this is where Zaha comes into play – there’s history between Francis and Palace. Accusations of diving were again to the fore after Francis and Zaha clashed during this fixture last season. Zaha’s take – “I’ve done a one-two, I’ve gone to run and he’s blocked me and I fell over” – was somewhat different to Francis’, and the defender made his feelings known on the pitch. In addition, Zaha won two penalties against the Cherries in the game at Selhurst Park last season.
I can see the Ivory Coast winger – back in the news a fortnight ago when blasting the lack of protection he’s been getting – being targeted in this one and Francis is likely to be the man closest to him. With history between Zaha and Francis (and indeed the team as a whole), it’s worth backing both of them at the prices – it would be very profitable for them to go into the book for a similar incident to last year’s. Remember Zaha has already been booked three times in five games this season, too.
Referee: Mike Dean – Of the referees who took charge of more than one Premier League game last season, Dean was the strictest in terms of yellow cards, issuing 3.72 per game on average. Admittedly he is down at 3.00 this time around, although it is early days.
Jefferson Lerma – Bournemouth v Crystal Palace (Mon 2000) – 11/5 (Unibet, 888Sport)
Back to an old favourite here with 11/5 big enough to tempt me to back the Colombian again. I’ve vowed to keep an eye on the holding midfielder, who was booked no fewer than 16 times in 26 La Liga game last season – more than any player in Europe’s top five leagues. Booked twice in his three Premier League starts so far, this looks another opportunity too good to miss. Like Leicester, against whom Lerma was booked in Bournemouth’s last home game, Palace are a team who like to break at pace and that could potentially expose a player still settling into the English game. In addition, the World Cup star committed six fouls in a League Cup tie earlier this season and a similar number in this game would almost certainly be punished by Mike Dean, who is known to book players for totting up fouls.
Referee: Mike Dean (see above)
Granit Xhaka – Arsenal v Watford (Sat 1500) – 3/1 (Sky Bet, Unibet, 888Sport)
Only one player in the division collected more yellow cards than Xhaka’s 10 last season when he played in all 38 games. This season he’s on course to break that tally with three cards already awarded to the Swiss midfielder in his six games. Watford are a physical side who will make Xhaka work hard and likely force him into challenges and, subsequently, fouls. In midfield they have the tough-tackling Etienne Capoue and Abdoulaye Doucoure, plus the tigerish Will Hughes. Further forward, Andre Gray’s pace could trouble Xhaka on the counter, while man mountain Troy Deeney will also likely drift into his area of the field as he looks to link up play. While Arsenal are at home and worthy favourites to win the game, I can still see Watford causing Xhaka plenty of problems and 3/1 looks worth pursuing.
Referee: Anthony Taylor – Finished in the top half of the refs table in terms of cards handed out last season and has already raised his average this season, issuing 3.83 yellows per game so far. They included one of Xhaka against Cardiff.
Oriol Romeu – Wolves v Southampton (Sat 1500) – 5/2 (bet365)
Romeu has been a persistent offender since singing for Southampton and his card tallies show few signs of slowing down. Last season he was the league’s most-booked player with 11 cautions in 34 games. This season he’s started three matches and been carded twice. Perhaps not surprisingly, his average is at its highest in away games. In his last 21 starts away from St Mary’s (including cup ties), Romeu has been booked nine times. Going simply on those figures, his odds should be around half of the 5/2 they actually are, so bet365 appear to be taking a chance. Admittedly Wolves are not the best opposition for this bet – you’d prefer a side with more pace, one which likes to play on the counter-attack – but that is balanced out by the fact Stuart Attwell is the man with the whistle (see below).
Referee: Stuart Attwell – Easily the most card-happy ref so far this season, producing 4.67 yellows per game. He dished out eight in one game and six in another earlier in the campaign so positive signs on this front.