Just a couple of anytime card bets in this week’s column as the Premier League returns following the international break but both look to offer good value.
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Mark Noble – West Ham v Tottenham (Sat 1500) – 3/1 (bet365)
When there are so many London derbies, real local rivalry can get lost to the general public but, make no mistake, West Ham and Spurs are fierce rivals. They are separated by less than six miles (or at least will be when Tottenham finally move into their new stadium). One player who has lived that rivalry virtually since his birth in Canning Town and upbringing in nearby Beckton is Hammers fan-turned-midfielder Mark Noble and his disciplinary stats in this fixture reflect that. He’s been booked in nine of 18 career appearances (16 starts) against Spurs, including four of the last six in the league. That figure of nine is four cautions more than against any other opponent. This game means a lot to him, perhaps too much. If you are not buying into the West Ham-Spurs rivalry, he has only been booked twice in 18 games against Arsenal, traditionally less fierce rivals for the Hammers (and, notably, also a club he was on the books of as a child). West Ham have collected a league-high 22 yellows so far and I’d expect more here as the tackles fly in. Noble is the prime candidate to pick up another (he already has two this season) and, at 3/1, has to be backed. The stats make this look an even-money shot.
Referee: Martin Atkinson – A good man to have in terms of this bet. He averaged 3.64 yellows per game last season – the third highest of those who took charge of multiple games. He’s bang on that average so far this term too. A known disciplinarian, it is no co-incidence he’s been chosen for a potentially explosive fixture.
Matt Lowton – Manchester City v Burnley (Sat 1500) – 4/1 (Unibet, 888Sport)
The Burnley right-back should not be 4/1 here. First of all, he’s facing possibly his toughest test of the season in his position with Benjamin Mendy striding forward from left-back for City and possibly Leroy Sane playing in front of the French international. Those two will trouble him all day long. Even if Sane is again (bizarrely) omitted, City will simply push another dangerous attacker wide, be it Bernardo Silva or Raheem Sterling. In short, Lowton will be busy. Secondly, he’s been picking up plenty of cards this season (as have his team), being booked in five of his nine games in all competitions so far, including his last three in the Premier League. Finally, the man in charge is happy to flash a card or two (see below). Put it all together and 4/1 is good value.
Referee: Jon Moss – Was the second strictest ref in terms of yellow cards last season (of those who refereed more than one game). His average on that front is down a bit this term but to mitigate that, Moss has already sent off three players. If Burnley try to make this physical – and they likely will – then Moss looks sure to head to his pocket.