ATP tennis betting tips: Hamburg, Gstaad, Atlanta

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Last week didn’t go well, let’s just admit it.

I said there wasn’t a great deal to float the boat and the two picks I did decide to side with disappointed.

Joao Sousa narrowly lost what was always likely to be a tough opening-round match in Umag but the bigger disappointment was Adrian Mannarino.

Having seen his odds contract from a pre-tournament 9/1 to become the clear 5/2 favourite, the Frenchman produced a horrible display as he lost in the quarter-finals to Marcel Granollers.

Here’s hoping for better this week – I’m certainly more confident this week with Gstaad the event to focus on if picking just one.

German Championships

Hamburg, Germany (outdoor clay)

Best bets:

• 0.5pt e.w. Philipp Kohlschreiber at 22/1 (various)
• 0.5pt e.w. Leonardo Mayer at 33/1 (various)

The week’s big event takes place in Hamburg with Dominic Thiem the top seed and bookies’ favourite.

The Austrian has twice won at this 500 level on the ATP World Tour before but he was last seen limping out of Wimbledon with a back problem.

Before heading home he told the media his regret at playing too much on the grass this year and also spoke of his packed schedule in the second half of the year and his determination not to tail off in the latter months, as has so often been the case.

Yet it seems nothing changes when it comes to Thiem. Instead of resting up ahead of the North American hardcourt season, it appears the 24-year-old simply can’t resist a return to his favourite clay surface before heading across the Atlantic.

Yes, Thiem may take to the red dirt like a duck to water but we also know that the surface switch is exactly the sort of thing which affects a bad back and I am certainly looking elsewhere for a potential winner.

Richard Gasquet may fancy his chances after a run to the final in Bastad last week but is priced accordingly, while Diego Schwartzman, the second seed, is searching for form at present.

A case can be made for Pablo Carreno Busta, the Spaniard who won plenty of claycourt matches in the spring but also found a worrying tendency to lose as a heavy favourite – I’m thinking of defeats to Frances Tiafoe in Estoril and Stefanos Tsitsipas in Barcelona (both matches being semi-finals).

At the prices I prefer Philipp Kohlschreiber and Leonardo Mayer as alternatives.

As regular readers will know, Kohlschreiber is always at the forefront of my mind when it comes to German events simply due to his strong record in his homeland.

He was looking good here 12 months ago only for injury to strike when he was a set to the good in the semi-finals.

He also made the last four in 2014 but it is his record in Germany as a whole which shows why you can expect a strong showing from Kohli in Hamburg.

For those who haven’t learnt the stats off by heart having read them here before,  11 of Kohlschreiber’s 18 career finals have been played on home soil, with five of his eight titles won in Germany.

OK, he’s not got sparkling form but he has beaten decent some claycourters in 2018 with Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Roberto Bautista Agut and Karen Khachanov all among his victims. Most recently it took eventual finalist Kevin Anderson to stop him at Wimbledon.

You can be sure Kohlschreiber will be happy to be back in Hamburg, where he’s also made two quarter-finals in recent years.

He looks to have a draw which will allow him to play himself into the tournament with Nikoloz Basilashvili his first-round foe with a match against either Pablo Cuevas, a man struggling for form, or Marton Fucsovics to follow.

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Carreno Busta could await in the last eight, although he has no gimme in round one where he faces last year’s runner-up and another man with a strong record in Germany, Florian Mayer.

At 22/1, Kohlschreiber makes appeal.

As for Leonardo Mayer, it’s rare to see a defending champion offered at 33/1 but that’s the case here.

The Argentine won as a lucky loser 12 months ago but he was also the champion in 2014 so this is a very happy hunting ground for him.

Again, we’re relying on the venue helping to improve form but Mayer has not been without some good results this season – he’s beaten this weekend’s Bastad cahmpion Fabio Fognini twice on clay in 2018, as well as Fernando Verdasco, while he recently defeated Wimbledon runner-up Anderson on the grass of Queen’s Club.

He’s been serving well of late and opens up against the out-of-sorts Albert Ramos-Vinolas, a player he beat en route to the title here in 2017.

Mayer is in Schwartzman’s quarter of the draw, one also featuring Marco Cecchinato, who made the final in Umag on Sunday. However, the Italian has never gone back-to-back at this level before.

The generally-available 33/1 looks worth snapping up.

J Safra Sarasin Swiss Open

Gstaad, Switzerland (outdoor clay)

Best bets:

• 1pt e.w. Robin Haase at 20/1 (various)
• 1pt e.w. Paolo Lorenzi at 33/1 (various)

This is the tournament which makes most appeal this week with the key element for punters being the venue’s altitude.

At more than 1,000m above sea level in the Swiss Alps, Gstaad is the second-highest host on the ATP World Tour (only Quito is higher).

The ball flies through the thin air more and so big servers can go well – as long as they can control the ball off the strings. That’s long been a problem for some players so it usually makes sense to find someone who has mastered such conditions in the past and that’s what I’m going to do.

Fabio Fognini proved just that last year when he won this tournament and he arrives here buzzing after victory at the Swedish Open on Sunday.

It’s therefore no surprise to see him chalked up as favourite but the switch from the coastal town of Bastad to the Alpine conditions with little time to adjust is exactly the sort of scenario which has the potential to get the hot-headed Italian’s blood boiling.

He also has a tough draw. Last year’s runner-up Yannick Hanffman could be Fognini’s first opponent while Joao Sousa or Nicolas Almagro – both proven altitude performers – are potential quarter-final foes. The same can be said of Feliciano Lopez, a former champion here, in the semis.

All things considered, Fognini looks well worth avoiding this week.

In the top half I’m instead going to take a chance on Paolo Lorenzi at 33/1.

The reason is simple – he’s got a very strong record at altitude.

Lorenzi has played in four ATP finals in his career and three of those have come at venues well above sea level.

He won in Kitzbuehel two years ago at this time of the year and has also appeared in finals in both Quito and Sao Paulo.

While on the subject, it is also worth noting that this year’s exit in Quito came at the hands of the eventual champion, Roberto Carballes Baena.

It is also significant that Lorenzi recently made the final of a Challenger event at L’Aquila in his homeland recently – another event played above 700m.

In the second quarter of the draw, Lorenzi could face Lopez in round two so we do need a little faith in him. However, that altitude record is more than enough to warrant a small bet at 33/1.

On the opposite side of the draw, the aforementioned Carballes Baena may be worth chancing at a big price given what he achieved in Quito.

Yet he’s done very little since that win in February and I’m instead going to back Robin Haase, another man who loves the conditions at this height.

He was runner-up at this event in both 2013 and 2016 and also made the semis in 2014 and 2017.

That’s very good consistency from the Dutchman, who is also a two-time Kitzbuehel champion.

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The fifth seed, fresh from a doubles title on the clay of Umag, faces a lucky loser first up in Viktor Galovic before meeting either teenage wild card Felix Auger-Aliassime or Guido Andreozzi.

Borna Coric is his scheduled quarter-final opponent but he’s never played this high on the main tour before with no appearances in Quito, Kitzbuehel or Sao Paulo on his record. I wouldn’t want to be backing the hit-and-miss Croat this week.

Approaching a career-high in the rankings, Haase is offered at 20/1 which looks more than fair.

BB&T Atlanta Open

Atlanta, USA (outdoor hard)

Best bet:

• 2pts John Isner at 3/1 (Betfred, totesport)

The countdown to the US Open begins this week on the North American hardcourts and I’ll keep things simple in Atlanta by backing favourite John Isner at 3/1 (or 11/4 which is widely available).

Just look at his record here.

He’s played in all eight stagings of the tournament since it joined the tour in 2010 and has won it four times, finished runner-up on three occasions and bowed out in the semis on the other. It is probably worth pointing out the tournament moved across town in 2012 so at its current Atlantic Station setting, Isner has won four of six renewals.

As top seed he has a bye so only needs to win four matches for another title.

In short, the price looks perfectly acceptable.

I suppose the main worry is how Isner has recovered from his marathon Wimbledon semi-final against Kevin Anderson.

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Yet by the time he begins his campaign in Georgia, that match will be virtually a fortnight behind him.

Always hot, Atlanta plays fast which suits Isner’s huge serve and there’s a long list of opponents who failed to deal with it over the years here.

Arguably the biggest danger to Isner here is Nick Kyrgios, the man who beat him in the 2016 final.

Whether he’s dialled in or not this year though is, as ever, anyone’s guess and I’d much rather be backing the more reliable Isner at the prices.

Hyeon Chung is the third seed but this is his first ATP appearance since Madrid in May following injury and it is too much to expect him to triumph.

For those looking at a longer price, Marius Copil made my initial shortlist. The Romanian’s big serve will be well suited to these conditions and he was runner-up indoors in Sofia earlier this season when that was also the case.

He’s 50/1 this week which will tempt some and had he landed in the bottom half I’d have jumped on board.

However, he’s in the same section as Isner – the pair could meet in the semis – so on this occasion I’ll leave the big-price option alone.

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