ATP tennis betting tips: Washington, Los Cabos, Kitzbuehel

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It was good to see last week’s each-way pick, Leonardo Mayer, reach the final in Hamburg as a 33/1 shot. Less good was seeing him edged out 7-5 in the deciding set but a profit was secured for the week nonetheless.

3/1 tip John Isner also made the final in Atlanta – at time of publication he’s on court against Ryan Harrison – so hopefully can add to the bank.

On we go with selections for the three ATP tournaments which get under way on Monday, including four picks between 20/1 and 28/1…

Citi Open

Washington, USA (outdoor hard)

Best bets:

• 1pt e.w. Stefanos Tsitsipas at 28/1 (various)
• 1pt e.w. Hyeon Chung at 20/1 (Sky Bet)

The US capital stages the big event of the week with this 500-level tournament being the next step on the road to the US Open.

Former world number one Andy Murray is arguably the big draw as he makes his return to action. He’s sounded confident in terms of how practice on the hardcourts has been going over the past month but there’s a big difference between that and match play and it would take a very brave man to be backing him at a single-figure price this week given he’s played just three matches in 13 months.

Alex Zverev is the top seed and defending champion so it’s probably no surprise to see him up as favourite but the German hasn’t exactly been in top form over the past few months and he’s had to endure some real struggles in certain matches. Hot and humid conditions here mean a repeat could prove to be his downfall.

Perhaps the hardcourts will help him rediscover his best but again I’m not prepared to pay at the price he is to find out.

Nick Kyrgios’ injury issues (and general mentality) mean he’s easily overlooked and while John Isner will clearly have his backers, on this occasion I’m happy to leave him alone.

The big-serving American has never won here despite three final appearances and I just wonder what effect his Wimbledon semi-final run will have on this current hardcourt season.

Isner has usually gone out early at Wimbledon before embarking on a busy hardcourt period in North America – he often signs up to play Atlanta, Washington, Canada, Cincinnati and Winston-Salem before the US Open.

Whether at 33 he can realistically do that again this summer remains to be seen but he has already made the final in Atlanta, where he really had to fight in the last four, so it would hardly be a huge surprise for him to withdraw from this event – that’s what happened last year after he won in Georgia.

There are more points on offer in Toronto next week so perhaps his big effort will come there – a win in Canada could see him climb to a new career-high.

Instead I’m going further down the market for my Washington picks.

In the top half, Stefanos Tsitsipas is worth a poke at 28/1.

I’ve been banging on about the Greek for some time, but also with some justification – he’s surged close to the top 30 having started the year just inside the top 100.

He was the runner-up in Barcelona and made the last 16 at Wimbledon.

This, of course, is a different surface but Tsitsipas looks someone who will become an all-court player and his big first serve will certainly help him in conditions which usually play pretty fast.

He has been to the last eight in both Doha and Dubai (another tournament which has fast conditions) on the surface this year and a good draw here could see him make more headway.

Tsitsipas is seeded to lose to Nick Kyrgios in the last 16 but the Aussie was last seen limping out of Atlanta on Friday night so is a player with a long history of injury issues really going to be 100 per cent now?

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Even if he somehow is, Tsitsipas’ big-hitting game is certainly capable of frustrating Kyrgios and taking him down.

David Goffin could follow in the quarter-finals but he’s another not at his best right now.

At 28/1, the Greek teenager is worth chancing.

In the bottom half, I’m going to risk Hyeon Chung, a player who admittedly only returned to action last week in Atlanta following a two-month lay-off.

The Korean showed some sharpness there though and only lost to eventual finalist Ryan Harrison in a final-set tie-break.

Chung’s hardcourt record at the start of 2018 certainly suggests he can go well here.

He was a semi-finalist at the Australian Open in January and followed that up with quarter-final runs in both Indian Wells and Miami.

Kyle Edmund, who could face Murray in round two, is a threat in this part of the draw (Edmund could meet Chung in the last eight), as, potentially, is Isner.

But aside from that, an on-song Chung looks more than capable of making good progress.

It is only the lack of match play which has Chung at 20/1 and it could pay to take that price now as it won’t be around for future events should, as I suspect, he go well in Washington.

Abierto Mexicano de Tenis Mifel

Los Cabos, Mexico (outdoor hard)

Best bets:

• 3pts Juan Martin Del Potro at 15/8 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
• 0.5pt e.w. Taylor Fritz at 25/1 (BoyleSports)

I don’t pick out too many favourites in my tennis previews but I’m happy to do so when I feel the price is wrong and that’s the case in Los Cabos this week when it comes to Juan Martin Del Potro.

The top seed has a first-round bye and so only needs to win four matches and he has the form to beat all those in this field.

In recent times, Delpo has been to the quarter-finals of Wimbledon, where he gave Rafael Nadal one hell of a match, and the semis of Roland Garros.

Yes, this is a different surface to either of those but the hardcourts are Del Potro’s natural domain these days and a look at his record on them this season shows just that.

On his last visit to Mexico, the Argentine won in Acapulco. He followed that up by beating Roger Federer to win his first Masters 1000 title in Indian Wells, with his winning streak finally coming to an end in the semis of Miami.

Should he pick up from where he left off, Del Potro should win this.

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The bookies actually make a player in his quarter, Sam Querrey, the second favourite.

He’s the defending champion but he almost lost his opener 12 months ago – and did do so in 2016. More importantly, he’s 1-3 against Del Potro.

It’s also worth looking in the bottom half for some each-way value – that’s what I grabbed in my 2017 preview when 40/1 pick Thanasi Kokkinakis made the final.

On that occasion Kokkinakis had been showing some improving form coming into the tournament and he took advantage of a good draw.

This time around it is the man he plays in round one – Taylor Fritz – to whom that could apply.

Fritz is one of many Americans who seem to play their best tennis on home soil and earlier in the season the youngster made the last 16 in Indian Wells (beating Andrey Rublev and Fernando Verdasco), while he also defeated Sam Querrey en route to the quarter-finals in Delray Beach.

More recently he pushed Alex Zverev to five sets at Wimbledon and on his return to the hardcourts in Atlanta last week he was only edged out in a final-set tie-break by the highly-talented Hyeon Chung.

He’s in a decent part of the draw with the other seed in his quarter being Fabio Fognini, a player I can see being somewhat frustrated by the switch to hardcourts after spending the last few weeks on clay.

A similar thing can be said of Feliciano Lopez. Although he made the final here two years ago, Lopez comes back down from the altitude of Gstaad to this coastal resort and I would not be at all surprised were he to struggle against either a qualifier in round one or Atlanta semi-finalist Cameron Norrie in round two given both opponents are already bedded in on the surface.

The ever-improving Norrie is also a possibility at 33/1 but I’ll side with Fritz, whose big serve should help him at a venue which has seen both Querrey and Ivo Karlovic claim titles in its short life so far.

Generali Open

Kitzbuehel, Austria (outdoor clay)

Best bets:

• 1pt e.w. Robin Haase at 22/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

This event represents the last chance in 2018 for the dirt-ballers and subsequently Kitzbuehel has again attracted a strong field.

It is led by Dominic Thiem but the world number eight is yet to win his home tournament. In 2016 he was beaten here by compatriot Sebastian Ofner, a man he could meet in his opening match again this time around.

Thiem went off favourite in Hamburg last week only to lose in the quarter-finals and I can’t be having him at a short price once again here.

Kitzbuehel continues the altitude theme which began last week in Gstaad and while this is somewhat lower, the venue is still more than 700m above sea level so the balls will fly and those who go well will need good feel off their strings.

As I did in last week’s preview, looking for players with a proven record at such altitude looks a wise move (fat lot it did me last week though).

Philipp Kohlschreiber has won this title in two of the last three years and was also runner-up back in 2012. No wonder he’s happy in the conditions though – this is where the German lives when not on the tour.

However, at 10/1, Kohlschreiber looks a little on the skinny side given he’s been struggling to put deep runs together of late. I’ve backed him in both Stuttgart and Hamburg in recent weeks and he’s disappointed in round one on both occasions. He’s now lost six of his last nine matches.

If there’s a venue which will snap Kohli back into form it is this one but I can leave him alone at the price.

Instead I’ll go in again on Robin Haase, one of those who let me down in Gstaad last week.

I made reference to his Kitzbuehel record last week and as a two-time winner here he certainly warrants respect.

Unlike Kohlschreiber, Haase does have decent recent form for although he flopped in Gstaad, the week before he made the semis in Umag. Indeed it could be argued that run at sea level in Croatia hurt his chances in the Swiss Alps.

Haase is in Thiem’s half of the draw – the pair could meet in the semi-finals – but it’s worth noting that the Dutch star leads that particular head-to-head 3-2.

All in all, 22/1 about Haase’s chances looks more tempting than Kohlschreiber’s at less than half the price.

The same can be said when comparing Haase to another player who made my shortlist, Dusan Lajovic.

He’s enjoying a good season and hit a new career-high ranking in June following a semi-final run in Lyon and a Madrid quarter-final appearance. The latter event, in which Lajovic beat Juan Martin Del Potro, is also played at a significant altitude.

However, the bookies are wise to Lajovic, who is chalked up no bigger than 12s. He’s also in Thiem’s quarter and a 0-5 head-to-head hardly inspires confidence, even if he did win a set against him in Lyon.

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