Free tennis betting tips: ATP Rogers Cup, Toronto

A position of much promise heading into the weekend sadly reaped no rewards – unless of course you traded out.

At 28/1, Stefanos Tsitsipas made it the semi-finals in Washington but was well-beaten by an in-form Alex Zverev, the top seed.

I had expected Juan Martin Del Potro to save us in Los Cabos – and so did the layers with the 15/8 ante-post tip trading at 1/4 prior to his final defeat to Fabio Fognini. Being broken four times by the mercurial Italian was somewhat shocking and a big setback for Delpo.

So on we move to the Rogers Cup, the latest Masters 1000 event in Toronto…

Rogers Cup

Toronto, Canada (outdoor hard)

Best bets:

• 0.5pt e.w. Kei Nishikori at 33/1 (various)
• 0.5pt e.w. Roberto Bautista Agut at 250/1 (Unibet, 888Sport)

The Canadian leg of the ATP Masters 1000 series usually marks the start of the summer hardcourt season for the game’s big guns and this year is no exception.

It is three weeks since the Wimbledon final and a rare period of sustained rest comes to an end for the top names as they begin to focus on the US Open, which starts on August 27.

Basic logic would suggest that having squeezed in a holiday, in some cases a wedding, and making the transition from grass to the DecoTurf surface would make the leading stars vulnerable.

Yet, look through the roll of honour in Toronto, where this week’s event takes place, and you’ll see that it is dominated by the Big Four with only Jo-Wilfried Tsonga having denied the famous quartet since 2002.

That was a truly amazing week for Tsonga as he took down three of the said four over the course of the week – something that has been done on only a handful of occasions in history.

It is important to remember this tournament alternates each year with Montreal but a very similar statistic applies to renewals in Quebec, too.

In Montreal, only Alex Zverev (last year) has muscled in on the Big Four since their dominance began in 2005.

The boost for punters this week is that only two of the Big Four have turned up.

Roger Federer has opted not to play this week citing scheduling worries – we’ve known for some time he’d much rather play in Cincinnati where conditions are faster and he’s a seven-time champion.

The 2010 winner in Toronto, Andy Murray, is also absent – he also focuses on Cincy having played several long matches last week in Washington.

Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic do compete, however, and they claim the top two places in the outright market.

Given Djokovic’s performances at Wimbledon, where he emerged victorious, I’m a tad surprised to see him playing second fiddle to Nadal in the betting so perhaps 4/1 about the Serb, winner of two of the last three Toronto tournaments, does offer some value.

That said, it is Djokovic who is the example who should be held up by anyone suggesting early vulnerability for the big names.

Unlike previous years, Djokovic is seeded down in ninth so there’s no first-round bye and the draw has also thrown up a real tester of an opener – he plays Hyeon Chung, the man who gave him all sorts of problems (and was responsible for his exit) at the Australian Open.

The fortunes of both men have changed since, it has to be said, Chung having to endure a two-month injury lay-off and Djokovic undergoing elbow surgery before seeing an upsurge in his form, one which ended in that Wimbledon title.

The match definitely still has the look of a banana skin about it, however, with Chung having played a hardcourt tournament in each of the last two weeks.

As for Nadal, he hasn’t won here since 2008 and we’re getting into the part of the season which has traditionally seen him begin to tail off.

Will all those claycourt matches in the spring – not to mention a longer-than-usual run at Wimbledon – start to have an effect as Nadal moves onto a surface which has caused problems for his knees over the years?

While Nadal did cast such concerns aside last year, winning the US Open, it is more than possible that, at the age of 32, he’ll be feeling it now.

In short, while we could well see Nadal and Djokovic in the final next weekend, I’m happy to swerve them both and instead try to hunt out some each-way value as, for all that Big Four title dominance, there have been several big-priced runners-up over the years, including Richard Gasquet (twice a finalist), Nicolas Kiefer and – two years ago – Kei Nishikori.

It is Nishikori where I start with 33/1 about the Japanese’s chances looking tempting.

Nishikori has the game to shine on the DecoTurf and often does. As well as his run to the final here two years ago, one which included wins over Grigor Dimitrov and Stan Wawrinka, he’s a former US Open finalist (2014) and also made the semis in New York in 2016. Nishikori has also made the last four of this event in Montreal.

He was looking pretty good in Washington last week before blowing a one-set lead against Alex Zverev, at time of writing due to compete in the Washington final on Sunday night, in the last eight.

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One reason Nihsikori’s price is so big is that a second-round meeting with Juan Martin Del Potro looms.

Del Potro leads the head to head 6-2, although on hardcourts it’s just 3-2. One of those Delpo wins came in Miami this year when Nishikori was just feeling his way back after a long injury absence and I’d suggest last year’s clash in Washington, won by the Japanese, bears more relevance – it came on the exact same surface (DecoTurf II) for a start.

Should he win that one, the price will collapse and with Del Potro heading straight to Toronto from a very much unexpected defeat in the final of Los Cabos, it’s a chance worth taking.

Matches with John Isner and Rafael Nadal could follow but there’s also reason for optimism here too with Nishikori 2-1 up on Isner in their career series and, while he’s usually come off second best against Nadal, Nishikori has actually won two of their last three on a hardcourt.

Any meeting with Nadal would come in the semis and by then the Spaniard may have had to overcome Nick Kyrgios (or Stan Wawrinka) and Marin Cilic (or Kyle Edmund).

All things considered, I just think Nishikori is overpriced. He’s capable of challenging the very best players on this surface at this time of year – he’s proved it too – and has to be worth a small punt.

I’m also going to take a chance on Roberto Bautista Agut in the third quarter, a section of the draw which looks relatively weak.

RBA returned from injury on the Gstaad clay last month and made the final.

Spanish he may be, but a medium-paced hardcourt is where his best results have often come and a look back at his 2018 record shows titles on hard in both Dubai and Auckland.

OK, this is a step up from those 500 and 250 events but I don’t think he has huge amounts to fear in this part of the draw.

Kevin Anderson looks the first real test and not even the South African will really know how he’s going to back up his run to the Wimbledon final.

What we do know, however, is that Anderson struggled after reaching last year’s US Open final – he failed to win back-to-back matches in the rest of 2017 – and that he’s lost his only previous match with RBA.

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Bautista Agut could then face Grigor Dimitrov, Milos Raonic or David Goffin but none of those three is in anything like their best form right now.

The semis could be the real problem with Djokovic a possible foe at that stage, although at least RBA has a Masters victory over the Serb on his CV (en route to the final of Shanghai in 2016), while he also gave him a real tough match at Roland Garros earlier this season.

Defending champion (from Montreal 12 months ago) Zverev is another possible opponent in the last four. He went back-to-back winning in Washington and Canada last year and is looking to do the same again. However, again RBA can look to the H2H for confidence – he won their only previous hardcourt match.

For those seeking a tasty price, 250/1 with Unibet and 888Sport about Bautista Agut looks decent. He’s also 200s at Betfred and totesport – most other firms go 50/1 which is more like it.

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