With the new Premier League season about to begin, I’ve taken a look at the main markets to look at where the value lies.
However, my best bets for the 2018/19 campaign all come in the specials markets and I’ll be revealing those in a separate preview on Wednesday evening – you can check out my Twitter feed to be notified exactly when it goes up as I’m pretty sure the prices won’t last.
Enjoy!
Relegation
Best bet:
- Southampton to be relegated at 7/1 (various)
Southampton look great value here at 7/1.
This is the side which finished one place outside the relegation zone last season, winning just 36 points from their 38 games.
Mark Hughes, a man who presided over the first half of Stoke’s relegation season, was parachuted in to save them late on. He did so but hardly in a convincing manner and it’s easy to see the Saints back in the dogfight this time around.
Dusan Tadic, one of their best players, certainly in an attacking sense, has been sold and not adequately replaced. With his creativity gone, the goal threat is reduced even further – last season Southampton scored only 37 times with Charlie Austin being their leading scorer with just seven.
In defence, Virgil van Dijk’s January departure is still being felt, while Southampton appear to have a clear weakness in goal.
The fact we don’t really know who is first choice is a bad thing not a good one. Fraser Forster’s form dipped last term, leaving Alex McCarthy in sticks. Now Angus Gunn, a Premier League rookie, has been signed for big money from Manchester City. It looks a problem area.
There’s not a great deal in terms of quality (and often points) between seventh and 18th in this league – something Southampton proved last season with their fall from the top half in 2016/17 – and I just don’t see why they are 7/1.
The division’s established sides suffered last year when all the promoted teams stayed up and the arrival of Wolves and Fulham, both of whom look strong, will put clubs like Southmapton under pressure again.
How Southampton can be twice the price of Fulham is beyond me and they have to be backed.
As for other contenders, odds-against about Huddersfield making the drop in their second season back in the top flight looks perfectly fair.
Many newly-promoted sides use the initial buzz well and the Terriers did just that last season; a good start played a major role in them surviving.
They reached 15 points after 11 games but collected the same number from their final 19.
David Wagner’s men – operating on what is probably the lowest wage bill in the division – won’t have the same initial excitement this year and a tough start which sees them face Chelsea and Manchester City in their first two games means they could be on the back foot early doors.
Another tough run-in lies in the store too with Spurs, Liverpool and Manchester United all faced in the final five games.
Finally, Everton warrant a mention here given their price of 40/1.
They’ve had a miserable pre-season, struggling to score goals and, not for the first time, are leaving their transfer business pretty late.
Should Jordan Pickford be sold in the coming days, the gloom will deepen.
They’ve placed an awful lot of faith in Marco Silva, a man who couldn’t buy an away win at Hull and then was unable to turn around a losing run at Watford.
OK, they probably won’t go down but they are definitely back-to-lay material as there’s every chance they shorten considerably – something that has happened regularly to the Toffees in this market over the years.
Premier League relegation stats
- Average points won by team finishing 18th (ie minimum to survive): 35.8
- Most points won by team finishing 18th: 42 (West Ham 02/03)
- Fewest points won by team finishing 18th: 30 (Burnley, 09/10)
- All 3 newly-promoted teams have gone straight back down on only one occasion – 1997/98 (Bolton, Barnsley, Palace)
- All 3 newly-promoted teams have survived on only three occasions – 2001/02 (Fulham, Bolton, Blackburn), 2011/12 (QPR, Norwich, Swansea) and 2017/18 (Newcastle, Brighton, Huddersfield)
Golden Boot
Best bets:
- Marko Arnautovic e.w. at 66/1 (various)
- Aleksandar Mitrovic e.w. at 100/1 (various)
- Wilfried Zaha e.w. at 100/1 (various)
As a punter who likes to sniff out the value, this is market where I’m looking for a big-priced, each-way contender to bag a place.
In recent seasons, Yaya Toure has done so at triple-figure odds, Jamie Vardy was a 500/1 shot and missed out on winning the Golden Boot by just a single goal, and of course last term Mo Salah pocketed the prize as a 66/1 chance.
It is the Vardy model I’m looking to follow, although clearly he was the beneficiary of a remarkable season in which Leicester somehow emerged as champions.
While I’m not expecting any of my picks to be collect winners’ medals in May, I am backing all three as I can see their respective sides performing better than the bookies expect.
I’ll start with West Ham and Marko Arnautovic.
The Austrian seemed to relish the responsibility he was given by David Moyes last season and new boss Manuel Pellegrini will surely want more of the same from him this time around.
Arnautovic failed to score under Slaven Bilic but after Moyes arrived in the autumn, he settled into the starting XI and scored 11 times in his last 20 Premier League appearances.
Were he to keep that up over a whole campaign, he’d be all but certain to be placed in this market. Pre-season signs have been good too with Arnie scoring five goals in his six games.
Often playing as the central striker, a chance he was rarely afforded at Stoke, Arnautovic produced some real up-and-at-‘em performances in claret and blue last term and his bustling style made him a handful for many a defender.
The supply lines look to be improving too given the summer splurge on the transfer front.
Wide men Andriy Yarmolenko and Felipe Anderson are players who should create chances and the same can be said of Jack Wilshere from more central positions.
With a manager with plenty of experience of Premier League football – a title winner to boot – there’s every chance a good bunch of players can be knitted into a real team, one capable of perhaps challenging for Europe.
If that happens, Arnautovic has the qualities to make 66/1 quotes look big.
Moving on, I also like the look of Fulham’s transfer dealings this summer and it’s worth taking a chance on their main striker, Aleksandar Mitrovic at 100/1.
The Serb was a man rejuvenated by his loan move to Craven Cottage last season, scoring 12 goals in 17 Championship games as he helped the west Londoners to promotion.
At only 23, Mitrovic is still improving as a player – as evidenced at the World Cup – and he’s now made that move permanent.
Having seen him interviewed, he seems a happier player than the one which arrived at Newcastle in 2015.
Mitrovic was brought in there as a big-money signing and never really delivered on the high expectations.
However, there were reasons for such ‘failure’ – the biggest being he was playing for a pretty awful team, one which ended up being relegated.
Given that fact, a return of nine goals from 34 league games in 2015/16 can hardly be classed as awful.
Second time around in the Premier League he can surely be expected to score more.
As is the case with Arnautovic, the service he should receive looks impressive.
Jean Michael Seri had been linked with bigger clubs than Fulham thanks to his efforts in Ligue 1 with Nice where his creative passing ability caught the eye.
Andre Schurrle is a World Cup winner who has played plenty of times in this division, while Ryan Sessegnon – a huge star in the Championship last season – should carve out plenty of chances on his own with his runs down the left flank.
My final shout here is Wilfried Zaha, a player who was outstanding for Crystal Palace in 2017/18.
He’ll need to raise his goal output if he is to land odds of 100/1 but he was often used as a central striker in the second half of last season so there’s a reason to think he can do just that.
Even from wide areas, Zaha offers goal threat, cutting inside and creating chances on his own thanks to his excellent dribbling ability.
Zaha scored nine times last season in 29 games, finishing the campaign with five in six.
It should also be remembered that Palace lost their first seven games last season (only one of which Zaha played). In the last 31 (Zaha played in all bar three, all of which were lost) they collected 44 points. Repeat that over a full season and they’d end with 54 points – seventh-placed Burnley’s total of 2017/18.
Basically Roy Hodgson did a terrific job of repairing a sinking ship and turning it into a fine vessel, one which had Zaha on the bridge.
He did so despite an awful injury list and the former England boss will have plenty of those long-term absentees back this coming weekend.
Some decent summer business has seen German international Max Meyer signed – someone who could easily create chances for Zaha – as well as an experienced Premier League campaigner in Cheikh Kouyate. There’s also talk of Ruben Loftus-Cheek returning which would be a huge boost.
Of course the elephant in the room with this bet is will Zaha actually be playing for Palace?
He’s been linked with moves to bigger clubs but if such a move does occur before Thursday teatime’s transfer deadline, that could actually improve his chances of scoring goals.
Now 25, Zaha has matured as a player and is no longer the youngster who flopped at Manchester United where frankly he was given few chances to shine.
Some will feel the value has gone – he was twice the price a week ago – but a small play at 100s should still be considered.
Premier League top scorer stats & facts
Recent winners & goals (team played for and position they finished in brackets)
- 17/18 – Mo Salah (Liverpool, 2nd) 32
- 16/17 – Harry Kane (Spurs, 2nd) 29
- 15/16 – Harry Kane (Spurs, 3rd) 25
- 14/15 – Sergio Aguero (Man City, 2nd) 26
- 13/14 – Luis Suarez (Liverpool, 2nd) 31
- 12/13 – Robin van Persie (Man Utd, 1st) 26
- 11/12 – Robin van Persie (Arsenal, 3rd) 30
- 10/11 – Dimitar Berbatov (Man Utd, 1st) & Carlos Tevez (Man City, 3rd) 20
- 09/10 – Didier Drogba (Chelsea, 1st) 29
- 08/09 – Nicolas Anelka (Chelsea, 3rd) 19
In 26 Premier League seasons, there have been 31 Golden Boot winners (including joint winners), nine of whom have played for the champions.
In the last seven seasons, only once has the Golden Boot winner played for the champions.
In only four seasons in the Premier League era has the Golden Boot been won someone playing for team which finished outside the top four and not since 2000/01:
- 00/01 – Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink (Chelsea, 6th)
- 99/00 – Kevin Phillips (Sunderland, 7th)
- 97/98 – Chris Sutton (Blackburn, 6th) & Dion Dublin (Coventry 11th)
- 92/93 – Teddy Sheringham (Spurs 8th & Forest 22nd)
Average goals scored by Golden Boot winner – 25.8
Most goals scored by Golden Boot winner – 32 (Mo Salah 17/18)
Fewest goals scored by Golden Boot winner – 18 (Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink, Dwight Yorke, Michael Owen 98/99, Michael Owen, Dion Dublin, Chris Sutton 97/98)
Average goals scored to finish 4th (and claim a place) in top scorers’ list – 17.9
Most goals scored to finish 4th (and claim a place) in top scorers’ list – 23 (Carlos Tevez 09/10, Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink, Ruud van Nistelrooy, Alan Shearer 01/02)
Fewest goals scored to finish 4th (and claim a place) in top scorers’ list – 13 (Jermain Defoe, Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink, Frank Lampard, Yakubu 04/05)
Above stats for 38-game seasons only
Title
No bet
After a record-breaking season in which they were a joy to watch, Manchester City start worthy favourites.
It’s also hard to argue that they shouldn’t be odds-on but history has a warning for them and there looks little value in the price.
No side since Manchester United a decade ago has retained the Premier League title.
Now it’s easy to argue that such was the nature of City’s success last term – record points and goals tallies, not to mention a never-before-seen 19-point margin of victory – that they stand on a brink of creating a real legacy.
Certainly Pep Guardiola had few problems in establishing prolonged success in his previous jobs with both Barcelona and Bayern Munich, at least domestically.
Yet we could also have said the same about Arsenal in the first half of Arsene Wenger’s long reign. They looked outstanding in winning the league – the Invincibles season not being the only example – but the Gunners never won back to back.
What can certainly be expected is that City won’t win it as easily as last season, a campaign which saw them win 18 successive games and by the end of that run the title was all but in the bag.
And so what if they are actually challenged? How will they cope in March and April if they are top of the Premier League by a couple of points but also in the last eight of the Champions League?
We never found out last season and what looked a wickedly-tough fixture list in that period instead became a run during which they could afford to ease off a tad in the Premier League.
In terms of transfers, the team hasn’t really evolved much at all – Riyad Mahrez has arrived and will probably oust Raheem Sterling from Guardiola’s best XI at some point – and I’m always concerned about any team standing still in this day and age.
Yes, City were great last season and could easily win again but prices around 4/6 aren’t for me.
It’s fair to say Liverpool look the most likely team to emerge as serious challengers to City but in betting terms, the value may well have gone. They’ve been cut from 6/1 to 4/1 over the summer.
The arrivals of Naby Keita and Fabinho have been much vaunted but neither has played in the Premier League before – remember last season’s breakthrough star Mo Salah did have experience of the competition with Chelsea.
The undoubted top signing has to be Allisson, the Brazil keeper who impressed for Roma last season. He should finally solve a problem which has been glaringly obvious for some time with the chickens coming home to roost in the most agonising fashion during last season’s Champions League final.
Virgil van Dijk’s arrival in January was a major plus and a whole season from him should ensure Liverpool make at least some inroads in the 25-point gap they must close on City.
As a value seeker, were I to have a bet in this market it may well be on Chelsea, now at a best price of 20/1.
It’s a punt, no doubt, but Chelsea have been underdog winners of this league in two of the last four seasons.
The second of those came in Antonio Conte’s first season; this time around it’s Maurizio Sarri making his Premier League debut as boss.
Sarri’s Napoli team was lauded for its attacking style and while they failed to end the Juventus dominance in Serie A, they came mightily close, racking up 91 points in finishing runners-up last term.
This is hardly a poor squad of players and it should be remembered many of them finished 10th in 2015/16 but went on to win the title the following season. Twelve months ago they were going off around the 7/2 mark.
At the back, Antonio Rudiger and Andreas Christensen now have a season of Premier League experience under their belts, while Cesar Azpilicueta has consistently been one of the competition’s best defenders for years now.
In midfield, Joringho, a Sarri go-to guy, has been added and could well become the new Nemanja Matic which Tiemoue Bakayoko failed to do last term – look out for him in the passing stats markets.
Admittedly it will be key for Chelsea to keep hold of Eden Hazard, who for me was the best player at the World Cup, but we won’t know who’s staying at any club until the August 31 deadline which still applies to clubs on the continent.
There’s obviously something of an unknown factor surrounding Sarri but what is known is largely positive and backing Chelsea at their current price certainly has a potential big upside.
They play four of the relegation favourites (Huddersfield, Newcastle, Bournemouth and Cardiff) in the first five games, a fixture list which hands them an opportunity to get off to a flier. Liverpool, on the other hand, face three of the Big Six before the October international break so they could well be playing catch-up once again.
Maybe it can be the Blues who put that pressure on City which may just have an effect.
I’m not convinced enough to risk my money though.
Chelsea were second-best to City by some distance in the Community Shield and too many doubts remain about the futures of their best players – Thibaut Courtois certainly looks like he’s trying to push through a move elsewhere.
Premier League title stats
In the Premier League era, only six clubs have won the title:
- Man Utd – 13
- Chelsea – 5
- Arsenal – 3
- Man City – 3
- Blackburn – 1
- Leicester – 1
Average points won by champions (38-game seasons only): 86.4 (2.27 per game)
Fewest points won by champions: 75, Man Utd in 96/97 (1.97 per game)
Most points won by champions: 100, Man City in 17/18 (2.63 per game)
Fewest points won by team finishing 2nd: 68, Newcastle in 96/97 (1.79 per game)
Most points won by a team finishing 2nd: 89, Man Utd in 11/12 (2.34 per game)
Smallest margin of victory: Goal difference (of 8), Man City in 11/12
Biggest margin of victory: 19 points, Man City in 17/18
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