Well, here they are – some (in my opinion) cracking bets for the 2018/19 Premier League season.
The specials markets have been trawled and this catch landed.
I fully appreciate some of the markets are of such a nature that some of you won’t get a big bet on – or that the price goes pretty quickly. That’s the nature of the beast.
Still, hopefully you like some of them and are able to back the ones you fancy. Even better, if you like what you read are in a position to offer me work, please get in touch!
If you know of any better bets, feel free to feed back and let me know using the on-site form.
- In case you missed it, click here for my preview of the title, relegation and golden boot markets.
Team goals
- Arsenal to score 65 or more league goals at 6/4 (BetVictor)
This is my best bet of the season.
Just look at Arsenal’s history in terms of goalscoring in the Premier League. Their most recent seasons have produced the following totals (last season first):
74, 77, 65, 71, 68, 72, 74, 72, 83, 68, 74
Basically they’ve landed this bet in each of the last 11 renewals.
I think we all know that Arsenal are not in the same shape as a team as they were at the start of that run but it is significant to see that in the last two seasons, ones in which they have failed to qualify for the Champions League, they have still smashed past the 65 mark by nine and 12 goals.
Essentially their problems have been at the other end of the field and despite a new era taking shape with Arsene Wenger gone, I see no reason to expect a big drop-off in goals scored.
Unai Emery teams attack and he’s already spoken about how he wants his men to press, win the ball back and get at the opposition.
In Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Alexander Lacazette, Arsenal still possess goalscorers up front.
In behind, Mesut Ozil will score and create – forget the critics. Having knocked international football on the head in controversial fashion, this is a player with something to prove this season and I’d expect better from someone who certainly has quality at his disposal.
Henrikh Mkhitaryan is another who should chip in with plenty of goals, as will Aaron Ramsey – as long as he stays.
There’s no Champions League to worry about again and although Emery has a strong track record in the Europa League (winning it three times in a row with Sevilla), Arsenal showed last season they can negotiate the early stages of that with a reserve side.
In short, the focus will be on the Premier League and Arsenal should get to 65 goals without much of a problem.
Get over to BetVictor’s site now to take the 6/4 before it is cut to odds-on, the price it should be – it’s listed under Football Specials/Arsenal Specials.
Player assists
- Mesut Ozil to have 10 or more assists at 7/4 (Betfred, totesport)
Forgive the Arsenal theme – I’m not putting all my eggs in that basket, honest – but this also looks a cracking price, one which should be snapped up sharpish as it looks sure to go.
Ozil bagged no fewer than 19 assists in the 2015/16 campaign and while that figure dropped significantly the following season, he still managed 10 (enough to land this bet).
Last season he narrowly missed out on double figures, finishing with nine, but those came from just 26 games – essentially he missed a third of the Premier League season. Ozil would surely have reached double figures had he not been absent for the final seven matches.
Ozil has been criticised in plenty of quarters – most recently by the head of Germany’s football federation, who made comments which prompted Ozil’s international retirement.
That ugly public spat has left Ozil with motivation to shine this season, as has the fact that there’s a new manager in town at Arsenal with Unai Emery now in the hot seat.
As suggested above, Arsenal should score plenty of the goals and Ozil can be the man to set up at least 10 of them.
The price should be around even money for me so 7/4 looks very tasty.
It’s UK Leagues & Cups/English Premier League/Premier League Goals & Assists 2018/19 on site for this one.
Top team scorers
- Ryan Fraser to top score for Bournemouth at 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred)
Yes, this is a long shot but there’s no way Fraser should be 50/1 in this market.
Admittedly he scored just five times last season in the league but only Callum Wilson and Josh King (both eight) scored more and there’s every reason to believe Bournemouth are in for another season of struggle in which goals won’t be easy to come by.
Scottish international Fraser was one of the Cherries’ better players last season and he could easily start more than the 23 games he did in 2017/18.
He’s got the ability to beat players, cuts in from wide areas (when he’s not playing more centrally) and has a cracking shot on him. At 50/1 he’s very much overpriced in a market hardly full of outstanding candidates.
- Gylfi Sigurdsson to top score for Everton at 16/1 (betway)
With Leighton Baines’ place in the starting XI seemingly under threat from Lucas Digne, Sigurdsson could well be on penalties and free kicks this season – and he scored plenty from dead-ball situations during his time at Swansea.
Crucially he’s likely to get to play in his proper position – more central and behind a lone striker. Despite being a club record signing last summer, Ronald Koeman failed to utilise the Icelandic star properly given the plethora of ‘number 10s’ in his squad. And for a fairly long period of Sam Allardyce’s reign, Sigurdsson was out injured.
With Wayne Rooney and Davy Klaassen moved on, Sigurdsson will surely be one of the first names on the teamsheet now.
Following a poor pre-season, this could be another disappointing season for Everton with the market not taking a great deal of winning. Cenk Tosun is the favourite but he doesn’t look the sort who’s going to fire in 15-20.
Sigurdsson bagged nine in his final season at Swansea and 11 the season before that.
A tally in that bracket could be enough to win this market and Sigurdsson should be capable of a repeat.
It’s worth noting this is listed under Football/Team Specials on site.
- Pedro to top score for Chelsea at 40/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
This another roll of dice, for sure, given Pedro is far from certain to be playing week in, week out.
Yet with the likes of Eden Hazard and Olivier Giroud on extended World Cup breaks, he’s had plenty of chances to impress in pre-season and taken them, at least to some extent.
Pedro strikes me as a Maurizio Sarri type of player and reminds me of Dries Mertens – a player who flourished under Sarri at Napoli where he was regularly in among the goals despite taking up plenty of wide positions.
The fact he may not get enough games will put off some but if he does plays regularly – with doubts over both Eden Hazard and Willian’s future making that more likely than otherwise might have been the case – the price is too big.
PFA Awards
- David Silva to be PFA Player of the Year at 25/1 (BetVictor)
Is David Silva Manchester City’s greatest-ever player?
I remember Noel Gallagher answering affirmatively in a somewhat bizarre Sky Sports appearance last season but there are others with greater footballing backgrounds who agree.
The Spaniard just oozes class and despite having turned 32 during last season, he still played a key role in the record-breaking success City enjoyed.
That was reflected, for a period, in this market with Silva shortening significantly just before Christmas only for his life to be shaken up by complications for his prematurely-born son. Just when he was playing at the top of his form, Silva missed a few games. While he still shone on his return – admirably so given he was regularly dashing to and from Spain – Silva faded in the market.
However, he still made the shortlist of six for the PFA award which eventually went to Mo Salah and his performances over the campaign have given him even more credit in the bank.
If the greatest-ever City team, one which is odds-on for the title, do sparkle like they did last season then it’s not hard to envisage their greatest-ever player featuring prominently once more. And if there’s little to split the leading contenders then Silva’s long-term consistency may just swing it. Few players have made the impact Silva has since he arrived in the Premier League in 2010.
In the market, Salah is only 10/1 to win again but just two players – Thierry Henry and Cristiano Ronaldo – have claimed this award back to back.
Kevin de Bruyne is the favourite but I just can’t believe his midfield partner should be three times the price.
- Ryan Sessegnon to be PFA Young Player of the Year at 17/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)
Tipping Leroy Sane to pocket this award at 14/1 was my big winner last season and I’m going to try to back that up with an even bigger price this time around.
Sessegnon made the six-man shortlist back in the spring despite playing in the Championship, so clearly he already has huge respect among peers.
I believe his Fulham side should go well having signed quality players – Alfie Mawson, Jean Michael Seri and Aleksandar Mitrovic among them – and that will help Sessegnon shine, just as he did in a very good Championship team last term.
He scored no fewer than 16 goals from his position on the left-hand side – be it as a pure winger, a full-back or a wing-back – not to mention eight assists.
While foreigners have come to dominate the main PFA award, its junior version has, by and large, remained a British affair.
Leroy Sane’s success in May was only the second time in 10 years (and fourth in 18) that the award had been presented to a non-British player.
Sane is favourite to win again (he would be the first foreigner to win it back to back) but it is with Sessegnon where the value lies.
Sadly 20s, available earlier this week, has been taken by 17/1 still seems a decent price.
- Sergio Aguero to be named in the PFA Team of the Year at 11/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
After so many years of near-misses, Aguero finally made it into the PFA Team of the Year last season and surely he is too big at 11/2 to be voted in again.
He has re-established himself as the main striker of the Premier League champions and title favourites and I don’t think there’s a better finisher in the division.
If you don’t take my word for it, then consider Rio Ferdinand’s opinion that he would “take Aguero over (Harry) Kane” were he picking a Premier League XI.
Of course it is the current PFA members who will have to decide but Aguero is playing for a team expected to dominate again and as long as he stays fit – and his injury record has improved in recent years – he looks highly likely to score at least 20 goals once more.
Kane is 7/4 in the same market – he’s looking to make it for the fourth year running – but should Aguero really be so much bigger?
One of the reasons Aguero never made the PFA XI prior to last season was until recently the side was selected using a 4-4-2 formation. That changed recently to 4-3-3 which clearly gives strikers more of a chance.
Were Aguero 11/2 to make it int a 4-4-2 set-up, that may be fair enough. As it is, he’s battling for one of three slots and is simply overpriced.
Another of interest in this market is David de Gea – 15/8 to nail down the keeper’s spot. He’s done that in five of the last six years and I suspect the big-hitters may be prepared to invest in that price in the hope of a decent return come May.
Managers to last the season
- Javier Gracia to leave his post before May 12 at 8/11 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Nine of the 20 Premier League managers failed to see out the 2017/18 season so it’s worth taking a closer look at this market, offered by Paddy Power and Betfair.
The obvious short-priced candidate is Watford’s Javier Gracia. He may be 8/11 but that doesn’t make it a bad price.
Since the first match of Gino Pozzo’s ownership in August 2012, Watford have had nine managers. Five of the previous eight have left mid-season and Gracia could easily become the sixth.
Having allowed Quique Sanchez Flores and Walter Mazzarri to see out seasons in which safety was secured relatively early, Pozzo got his finger back on the trigger last term as soon as Marco Silva hit a major slide.
Gracia kept Watford up but hardly captured the imagination.
The Spaniard led Watford in seven away games – eight if you include the FA Cup – and they failed to score a single goal, losing all bar one of those matches.
The Hornets did manage to win four home games under Gracia’s leadership which ensured at least one more season in the top flight. They would finish on 41 points, eight clear of danger.
However, a strong start was huge for them in survival terms but a repeat seems much less likely.
Summer transfer business has been slow with the usual influx of foreigners not being repeated – at least at time of writing. Richarlison – one of their star performers in the first half of 2017/18 – has been sold to Everton. There has also been talk of stalwart Troy Deeney departing for regular first-team football so this looks a squad potentially losing its identity.
If Watford don’t start well and are bumping along near the dreaded relegation line, I’d fully expect Pozzi to act as he looks to protect his investment. Gracia has less than 12 months on his contract and so won’t be expensive to dismiss.
Odds-on shots aren’t for everyone but it’s good enough for me.
- David Wagner to leave his post before May 12 at 3/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
As already touched upon, plenty of Premier League managers fail to see out a season these days.
As well as the nine of last season, there were five in 2016/17, seven in 15/16, six in 14/15 and another nine in 13/14.
Particularly vulnerable, for obvious reasons, are those managing clubs who struggle.
Let’s take the nine relegated clubs of the last three seasons – seven changed managers mid-season with only Norwich’s Alex Neil and Sunderland’s David Moyes actually managing their clubs for a full relegation campaign.
According to the market, Huddersfield are likely to be one of the three clubs making the drop this season and that alone makes Wanger a candidate for the axe.
OK, I accept Wagner has built up plenty of credit with his employers having got them promoted – and kept them up – against the odds.
But now things start to change. This season won’t have that same special feeling of the first one back after so many years and Wagner comes into this one having taken 15 points from his last 19 games – relegation, not promotion form.
Subsequently I doubt the Terriers will make the strong start they did 12 months ago. A fixture list which starts with Chelsea and Manchester City suggests it could be a struggle too.
There’s a chance Huddersfield will stick with Wagner, believing he’s the man to tackle the Championship if the worst happens.
But I’d also suggest Wagner isn’t that interested in managing at that level again. If another Premier League job becomes available, he could be a contender – and the same could be said about a Bundesliga position.
In short, Wagner remaining in his post isn’t simply about what the club wants and with that, plus the likelihood of this being a hard season for Huddersfield, having a small bet on Wagner at 3/1 looks worthwhile.
Season match bets
- Watford to finish higher than Bournemouth at 7/4 (Betfred, totesport)
This could well be a value loser but I don’t believe there should be such a wide gap between these two in terms of price.
I’ve written above about how I can see Watford struggling but that doesn’t mean they won’t finish higher than Bournemouth, who could also be very much fighting it out towards the drop zone.
The two teams went into the final day of last season on 41 points apiece and while Bournemouth did end up higher, that fact shows how close the two were.
With a lot of late, game-changing goals, Bournemouth can perhaps count themselves a bit lucky to have won the 44 points they did. While some will say it’s a sign of a good team, you have to wonder whether it can be repeated.
I’m not arguing Watford should be favourites – Bournemouth’s summer business, which has included signing Colombian World Cup midfielder Jefferson Lerma, looks the better – but the Hornets’ hotch-potch of foreign signings has been able to pick up enough points in recent years to maintain their status.
Points tallies of 41-40-45 have been collected with Bournemouth notching 44-46-42 since the two clubs won promotion in 2015.
I suspect these two will be fairly close to each other as the season rolls into May and backing the 7/4 shot should at the very least give you a good run for your money.
Other season-long bets I considered were Bournemouth (6/4, bet365, Betfred, totesport) to finish ahead of Southampton – a similar argument here to my Watford v Bournemouth one – and Fulham (31/20, JenningsBet) to be above Newcastle, who once again look in something of a mess.
However, the Watford bet looks the best of the lot and with so many interests in other markets, I’ll stick at that.
Total team points
- Fulham to win more than 39 points at 10/11 (bet365)
As touched upon above in my assessment of Ryan Sessegnon, there’s a lot to like about newly-promoted Fulham, in particular their summer signings.
Aleksandar Mitrovic has signed permanently after scoring 12 goals in 17 games on loan last season to fire the Cottagers into he play-offs. In midfield, Fulham have won the signature of Jean Michael Seri, a playmaker who was reportedly interesting much bigger clubs. And at the back England international Alfie Mawson has been taken from Swansea – another fine signing.
The tight nature of Craven Cottage has made it a tough place for teams to visit in the past and if they make their home ground a stronghold, I can see them easing past this tally.
It may not work out exactly like that but I still believe there’s enough quality in their squad to reach 40 points.
To compare bookies, William Hill have them at 8/11 to win more than 40. bet365 are being too generous – make them pay.
Click here for my preview of the title, relegation and golden boot markets.
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