It was a decent Wimbledon for this column with Kevin Anderson winning his quarter at 9/1, although in the end I was left regretting not backing him each-way in the outright market.
In the ladies’ singles, Serena Williams fell at the final hurdle but justified a 13/2 tip – she went off odds-on in the final and I know some of you traded out for a decent profit.
The tour moves relentlessly on with three ATP 250-level events this week. I usually like such weeks when it’s often possible to find someone going under the radar at a big price but there’s not too much jumping out on this occasion. Any way, here are my thoughts…
Dell Technologies Hall of Fame Open
Newport, USA (outdoor grass)
Best bet:
- 1pt win Adrian Mannarino at 9/1 (10Bet, SportPesa)
Unsurprisingly, given his Wimbledon exploits, John Isner has withdrawn, leaving Adrian Mannarino as both top seed and favourite.
That’s fair enough. He showed his grasscourt prowess with a quarter-final run at Queen’s, a final appearance in Antalya and a last-16 showing at Wimbledon. It took Djokovic to beat him at Queen’s and Federer at Wimbledon.
He’s twice been a quarter-finalist here and this year, as one of the top four seeds, he gets the advantage of a first-round bye.
That means the Frenchman only needs four wins to claim the title and with a decent-looking draw he’s very much worth considering.
As regular readers will know, I’m not much of a favourite backer but given you can get 9/1 here, Mannarino looks worthy of support.
For those seeking a longer shot, Denis Kudla in the bottom half has potential.
The American made the semis in Halle recently, losing only to Federer, and will be boosted by that showing as he heads back onto home soil.
Kudla beat both Ivo Karlovic and Grigor Dimitrov en route to the last eight here in 2011.
The eighth seed is offered at a best price of 17/1 in a section led by Mischa Zverev and last year’s runner-up Matt Ebden.
Plava Laguna Croatia Open
Umag, Croatia (outdoor clay)
Best bets:
- 1pt e.w. Joao Sousa at 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Another tournament, another high-profile withdrawal.
Briton Kyle Edmund was the top seed when the draw was made but he withdrew on Sunday citing illness and so the draw has been rejigged with Albert Ramos-Vinolas taking Edmund’s slot at the top.
Last year’s winner (as a qualifier) Andrey Rublev returns to defend his crown but this will be his first tournament since April following injury and surely he can’t be backed.
It will be interesting to see if Marco Cecchinato can back up his run to the last four of the French Open but that’s far from a given and he’s no bigger than 8/1 so I can leave that alone.
Instead I like the look of Joao Sousa at a tasty 33/1.
The Portuguese has a decent track record in 250 events on clay such has these, including winning one in Estoril earlier this season, when he beat Edmund en route.
He was also a semi-finalist in Marrakech, while in previous seasons he’s finished as a runner-up in Geneva, Kitzbuehel and Bastad, not to mention at this very event in 2015.
In addition, Sousa has beaten Alex Zverev and David Goffin on hardcourts this season so his form is pretty strong.
Admittedly he does have a tricky opener against Aljaz Bedene, a player he’s yet to beat, but the price is too tempting to ignore given those strong form lines.
The other player to catch the eye is Maximilian Marterer but sadly the initial 25/1 is now gone with only 16s left.
The German has enjoyed some good claycourt results of late and a lower-quality field appears to offer him the chance of a crack at a first ATP title.
Marterer reached the semis in Munich, where Diego Schwartzman was among his victims, and followed that up with a run to the last 16 of Roland Garros. Denis Shapovalov was beaten there and it took a certain Rafael Nadal to finally halt him.
He’s become the ninth seed following Edmund’s withdrawal and finds himself opening against a local wild-card in Cecchinato’s quarter.
I would have backed him at 25s but 16s seems the right price.
SkiStar Swedish Open
Bastad, Sweden (outdoor clay)
The strongest field of the week gathers in the Swedish coastal town of Bastad where Diego Schwartzman tops the bill.
He’s also the favourite following his run to the quarter-finals of the French Open, although that was a result which somewhat saved the Argentine’s European clay campaign which had been largely disappointing prior to Paris.
Schwartzman clearly has the ability to win four matches here and triumph but at 5/1 a player who didn’t make it past the quarter-finals 12 months ago is short enough.
Three-time champion David Ferrer and two-time runner-up Fernando Verdasco are the men with the course form. Offered at 14/1 apiece, the pair will have their backers but I believe both are well past their best these days and can be swerved.
There’s not too much appealing here but for those willing to take a real chance, then you could do a lot worse than back Matteo Berrettini.
The Italian youngster recently cracked the world’s top 80 for the first time and looks set to keep on climbing.
He made the third round at Roland Garros where he beat Ernests Gulbis before taking a set off eventual finalist Dominic Thiem.
Berrettini could face Schwartzman in the quarter-finals but will first need to get past Leonardo Mayer in a testing first-rounder, although the Argentine has struggled for wins of late, hence why I’m prepared to take on the seed.
There were quotes of 66/1 on Sunday night but at time of publication the Unibet and 888sport markets had come down. If they go back up, have a nibble.
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