Time for a look at the ladies’ singles ahead of Wimbledon which starts on Monday.
If you missed my thoughts on the men’s draw, they can be found be clicking here.
Wimbledon
(London, England, outdoor grass)
Best bets:
- 1pt e.w. Venus Williams at 50/1 (Betfred, Unibet, 888sport)
- 1pt win Serena Williams at 13/2 (BoyleSports)
- 0.25pt e.w. Alison Riske at 300/1 (various)
- 1pt Alison Riske to win second quarter at 66/1 (Betfred)
Apologies if you feel you’ve read this before – I’m certainly getting a bit of déjà vu writing it.
But it’s necessary as once again prices regarding the Williams sisters at Wimbledon are simply wrong.
Let’s have some context first.
Twelve of the last 18 titles have been won by either Venus or Serena – five to the former and seven to the latter – while only four of the last 18 finals have not featured one of the famous pair.
That’s some record for two players, never mind two from the same family.
Of course, past performance does not mean things will follow a similar theme in 2018 but what is undeniable is that Venus and Serena are two of only a handful of players who are totally at home on grass; for many of the WTA’s leading names, the surface is tolerated and little more.
At 50/1, Venus is, for me, a cracking bet.
This is a player who made the final 12 months ago (when I backed her each way) and I remain convinced that had she taken her break-point chances late in the first set against Garbine Muguruza she would likely have emerged as the champion again.
The price seems based way too much on the fact she’s now 38 but it ignores the wideheld view that she remains one of the best grasscourt players in the game.
OK, this year Venus doesn’t come into the tournament with the same number of wins under her belt as she did 12 months ago – she is 10-7 for the campaign thus far.
But if you think that is a poor record, at least consider some of the reasons behind that.
Playing Angelique Kerber and Belinda Bencic in first-round matches in Australia at the start of the year were very tough draws, while she’s rarely performed well on clay in her career so her most recent losses should not have been unexpected.
The quick clay-to-grass transition has not hindered her in the past – remember this year she will be bidding to reach her 10th Wimbledon final.
Her form on the American hardcourts is arguably more relevant than any of the other results mentioned above and during that swing she went 9-2, reaching the semi-finals in Indian Wells and the last eight in Miami.
Her run to the final last season was no fluke. She also made the semis in 2016.
The draw has worked out well too.
Karolina Pliskova could be faced in the last 16 but she continues to have her own battles with the surface, while there are tougher potential quarter-final opponents than Sloane Stephens.
Eastbourne winner Caroline Wozniacki is seeded to make the semis but that would also mean a considerable improvement on her previous best at Wimbledon (last 16).
All things considered, 50/1 is surely too big about her chances this time around.
An each-way play has to be the advice.
As for new mum Serena, she’s also at a tempting price, although I know I may struggle to convince some of you that 13/2 is worth taking.
It is a calculated risk, for sure, but the younger Williams did look to be getting back to somewhere near her best during the recent French Open before injury struck.
Women's singles draw #Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/P9oPaxoRiK
— Michal Samulski (@MichalSamulski) June 29, 2018
A tweaked pectoral muscle means we don’t really know what shape she arrives in SW19 in. However, what we do know is that she couldn’t serve properly when the injury occurred but she’s been back practising this week at the All England Club with no obvious worry.
Prior to the injury in Paris there were enough signs that the form was returning and if her body allows that improvement to be maintained then we all know she has the game on grass to beat everyone in the field.
Had she not been on maternity leave and arrived with no fitness concerns, Williams would probably be close to 2/1 to win again.
I accept that’s a lot of ‘ifs’ but they are very much built into the price which has the ability to look very big come the second week.
Serena’s grasscourt pedigree means that at 13/2 she is worth backing.
Defending champion Muguruza warrants respect for her grasscourt nous but she’s very hit and miss and could easily bomb out in week one, as she did in 2016.
Petra Kvitova probably deserves her position as favourite, arriving on the back of a run of 19 wins in her last 20 matches.
Twice a winner here (although she didn’t face a Williams in either final), the Czech’s game is ideal for grass but again she does have her flaws.
The left-hander’s focus can go off mid-match and subsequently she is often dragged into three-set battles. That could have consequences at the business end of the tournament or simply be too risky on a surface which punishes mistakes more than others.
She’s also nursing a hamstring problem having withdrawn from Eastbourne.
For those set on her, I wouldn’t talk you out of it too much but for me the price doesn’t scream value.
I’d be keen on the chances of 66/1 shot Naomi Osaka had she not also suffered a recent injury. The Japanese is another with a game well suited to grass, as she showed when giving Venus a real battle in SW19 last year.
A tricky draw added to that abdominal problem is enough to put me off though – she’s one to watch in the coming years.
At an even bigger price, I simply have to have an interest in Alison Riske, though.
The American is in fine form right now and odds of 300/1 look big indeed. However, a better way to get with Riske is probably the 66/1 about her winning her quarter.
On the clay, Riske finished runner-up in Nuremberg and upon arrival at the French Open looked on course to cause an almighty shock against eventual champion Simona Halep in round one. She took the first set 6-2 but eventually lost in three.
However, a move onto the grass has proved seamless.
Her early loss in Paris meant she could head to Surbiton for early grasscourt action and she duly claimed that ITF title.
A week later she made the quarter-finals in Den Bosch, losing only 14-12 in a final-set tie-break to Coco Vandeweghe, a Wimbledon quarter-finalist last season.
She also made the last eight in Mallorca, beating Angelique Kerber in the process, a player who is now the fourth favourite for Wimbledon.
Riske is drawn in quarter two and a rematch with Kerber could come in the last 16.
She will likely have to beat Carolina Garcia, the sixth seed, first but she did just that in Miami in the spring for the loss of only four games.
Muguruza is the top seed and market favourite here but I’ve already said how she blows hot and cold and certainly recent form has been towards the cooler end of that scale.
Last season Riske made the third round at Wimbledon, beating Stephens and Kiki Mladenovic before falling to Vandeweghe and I really believe there’s enough evidence there to warrant support for her at the extravagant prices.
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