Wimbledon betting tips: Men

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Last week felt like something of a missed opportunity with all three picks losing from a set up in their respective matches.

It was particularly disappointing to miss out in Eastbourne where the final ended up being between two big-priced long shots, Lukas Lacko and Mischa Zverev.

Still, the good news is I’ve picked out all four Grand Slam finalists on the men’s side so far this year so here’s hoping for more success on that front on the lawns of the All England Club…

Wimbledon

(London, England, outdoor grass)

Best bets:

• 1pt Marin Cilic at 15/2 (General)
• 1pt Kevin Anderson to win the first quarter at 9/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

Tennis’ Big Four simply refuses to go away.

Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal had both been written off at one point but they’ve now won the last six Grand Slam titles between them.

Many of those were claimed while Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray were troubled by injury but those two are now back and ready to make an impact so for the first time in 12 months the ‘awesome foursome’ will compete at the same tournament.

It is at Wimbledon where that Big Four dominance has arguably been at its greatest with each of the last 15 years having seen one of the quartet lift the trophy.

Three of the four (Murray being the odd one out) take up the first three places in the market so the bookies clearly feel that run will stretch to a 16th year.

I’m not so sure.

Last season I was happy to back Federer at 23/10 and he fully justified that faith by sweeping to the title without even losing a set.

This year he’s quite a bit shorter – a best price of 7/4 is available – but I’m much less inclined to support the Swiss 12 months on.

Yes, he’s yet again won one of the warm-up tournaments – Stuttgart on this occasion – but his form has been far from spectacular. He was unconvincing at times in Stuttgart and Halle and certainly well short of his best.

Federer was a set down in his first-round match in Stuttgart and later just two points from defeat against Nick Kyrgios in that tournament.

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The following week, in Halle, he went even closer to losing to Benoit Paire, saving two match points, before finally coming a cropper in the final when Borna Coric claimed a big upset win to deny Federer a 10th title at the German venue.

The 36-year-old said during that week in Halle how he was missing out on time on the practice courts due to his busy grasscourt schedule which came across as rather unusual.

Having skipped the clay campaign, Federer hasn’t played, let alone beaten, a top-20-ranked player since mid-February and I just feel he could be vulnerable, even on his favourite surface, this time around.

World number one Nadal had another superb claycourt season but that’s been the case in many recent years and such form has failed to translate to success on grass.

Nadal made five finals in five visits to SW19 between 2006 and 2011 but he’s not been to even a quarter-final since.

His long-suffering body doubtless struggles to make the clay-to-grass transition and a host of shock losses now sit on his CV, from Lukas Rosol to Dustin Brown.

Nadal looked more at home on the green stuff last season but ran into a fine server in Gilles Muller at the last-16 stage and tumbled out in an epic.

This year Nadal pulled out of his scheduled grass tune-up tournament at Queen’s citing doctor’s advice – hardly a great sign.

What may be in his favour this year is the recent London heatwave which is forecast to continue well into the tournament. It will likely result in a higher bouncing ball – expect to see baselines getting worn down faster too – which will favour Nadal’s wicked top-spin forehand.

Yet I still can’t be backing him at 7/1 given what are now long-standing grasscourt problems.

Neither can I expect much from Murray, who will be playing best-of-five-set tennis for the first time in a year. He’s just three matches into his comeback and having lost two of them, it is very hard to believe he can win seven on the spin here.

Denis Shapovalov and Juan Martin Del Potro both look big first-week dangers in Murray’s path (first-round foe Benoit Paire is no mug either) and despite the Scot being totally at home on this surface – not something you can say about many – I’ll happily leave quotes of 25/1 about the two-time winner alone.

Given the prices, were I to be backing a Big Four member it would be Djokovic, who played well at Queen’s – arguably as well as he has done in two years – and he was only just edged out in the final.

A three-time champion at Wimbledon, the Serb has grown to love the grass and if he brings that form to the All England Club, his pedigree will make him hard to beat.

But the man I’m going to trust with my cash this year is the player who beat Djokovic in that Queen’s final, namely Marin Cilic.

The Croatian has brought a much greater level of consistency to his tennis in last 18 months, a period which has see him reach two Grand Slam finals.

It was at Wimbledon last year where Cilic made it all the way to the final only to lose to Federer in forgettable circumstances – a foot injury undermining any hopes Cilic had of challenging a player in supreme form at the time.

It was Federer who was his opponent again in Australia at the start of the current season but this time the contest went the full five sets, Cilic looking the more likely winner at the start of the fifth before eventually fading.

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There looks more belief in the 6ft 6in star’s game these days, as evidenced at Queen’s where he managed to put away Djokovic despite losing the opening set and facing match point in the second.

The Cilic serve is a major weapon on grass and he has the power from the backcourt to cause damage in that way too. If the courts do produce a high-kicking ball, that shouldn’t faze the Croat though.

He enjoys the hardcourts, as evidenced in Melbourne, not forgetting the 2014 US Open either – he won that event when his serve was in fine working order, just as it was at Queen’s. Being a Slam winner is another advantage he has over virtually all the other non-Big Four contenders in attendance. He knows how to get the job done.

Being drawn in the top half alongside Federer isn’t ideal but the two can’t meet until the semis and if they do you can be sure Cilic will draw on memories of their 2016 quarter-final, rather than their 2017 title match.

On that occasion, Cilic was within a point of victory before losing in five sets but he proved that day he could match Federer’s grasscourt excellence by serving well and being aggressive in the longer points.

At 15/2, Cilic looks ready to be the man to end that Big Four domination at the All England Club.

Others who will hope to break the stranglehold include Halle champion Coric, who could meet Federer again in the last 16, but he’s only ever won one match at Wimbledon.

2016 runner-up Milos Raonic and Juan Martin Del Potro, a semi-finalist here in 2013, have both proven they have the weapons to perform on this surface but whether they have the physical fitness to do so in 2018 remains to be seen.

Raonic has had a host of injury issues this season, while Del Potro’s body has been creaking for years. He has been able to manage his suspect wrist much better of late but he still opted out of playing at Queen’s and so arrives without any competitive grass preparation.

At this point it’s also worth mentioning Nick Kyrgios, the highly-talented Australian who vaulted onto the scene here in 2014 when he became one of those to upset Nadal in SW19.

He’s made plenty more headlines since, many for the wrong reasons, and the past fortnight has been a microcosm of his career.

Kyrgios banged down the aces in Stuttgart and at Queen’s, showing he is force to be reckoned with when focused.

He came within two points of defeating Federer at the former before heading to London where he seemed more intent on entertaining the crowd with trick shots in his first set against Murray.

Later at that tournament he was back collecting fines for “inappropriate behaviour” which involved a water bottle and, as a more prominent writer than me wrote, “suggestive gestures”.

I don’t doubt Kyrgios has the shots to win Wimbledon – that serve alone could take him a long way. What I do have serious doubts about is whether he will ever be able to focus long enough in best-of-five tennis to win seven matches in two weeks.

Throw in a tough draw which could see him have to beat both Kei Nishikori and Alex Zverev just to get to any quarter-final (where Djokovic could lie in wait) and you have every reason to swerve.

Good luck if you back him but I certainly won’t.

Finally, I come to man I mentioned with confidence in my Queen’s preview only for him to let me down.

Kevin Anderson lost in the first round that week despite serving 26 aces and holding serve throughout his clash with Leonardo Mayer.

The South African has a seriously good serve, one which helped him reach the US Open final last year. No-one on the ATP World Tour has served more aces this year and he’s in the top 10 on all the key service stats.

It’s certainly highly effective on this surface.

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Anderson reached the Queen’s final in 2015 and has had his moments in SW19 too, pushing Djokovic to a fifth set that year.

Last season he again made the last 16 only to lose in five sets to fellow big server Sam Querrey.

As I mentioned two weeks ago, Anderson’s 2018 form is strong and that first-round loss at Queen’s was an exception which can be excused.

Anderson lost two tie-breaks that day but his breaker record on grass is strong – 31-23 lifetime with 13 of the last 19 won – and despite having been drawn in Federer’s quarter I’m tempted to get involved with him in some way.

Anderson is 50/1 in the outright market but 9/1 in the quarter betting may be the way to go.

If all is not hunky dory in the House of Federer right now – and there are signs that preparation has not been its usual efficient self – Anderson could be the one to take advantage in that section.

My views on the ladies’ singles will be published on Sunday morning.

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