Last year, Queen’s Club was a source of frustration with my two picks, Grigor Dimitrov and Marin Cilic, beaten by Feliciano Lopez in the semis and final respectively.
A small profit was made but it could have been a bumper one. Here’s hoping that can be put right this week.
Last week’s ‘comeback’ preview failed to deliver with Stefanos Tsitsipas and the aforementioned Lopez both losing tight quarter-finals – the matches they needed to cause an upset in to truly justify my faith.
Tsitsipas lost two tie-breaks to eventual champion Richard Gasquet, while Lopez was beaten in a three-setter by Nick Kyrgios.
It was far from a disaster but a profit it was not. Onwards and upwards…
Fever-Tree Championships
London, England (outdoor grass)
Best bets:
- 1.5pts e.w. Kevin Anderson at 12/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral, Sky Bet)
- 1pt e.w. Feliciano Lopez at 66/1 (BoyleSports)
This year’s Queen’s Club tournament sees a new sponsor and a subsequent colour change around the grounds but on the court the action again promises to be of a high quality.
There will once again be no Roger Federer (who continues to play in Halle) or Rafael Nadal (told to rest) but many of the game’s other leading names will be there.
They include five-time champion Andy Murray, who will be playing his first tournament in 11 months.
Even the player himself admits he won’t be returning to the winners’ circle any time soon and his first-round match with Nick Kyrgios is hardly what he would have wanted – there will be few chances to get into rallies and it’s easy to see the Briton leaving after just one match.
Novak Djokovic is also in the field having accepted a wild card, this having suggested following his French Open quarter-final exit that he would not even play on grass this year.
I’m certainly surprised to see the Serb no bigger than 4/1 and that’s not a bet I’m going anywhere near.
Yes, Djokovic looked better in Paris but he’s still some way from his best form, a level which has brought him three Wimbledon titles over the years. Losing to Marco Cecchinato says just that.
His suggestion about skipping the grasscourt campaign also suggests he’s not back to his top level mentally either.
Djokovic could face second seed Grigor Dimitrov, last year’s semi-finalist and a former champion here, in round two, while handy grasscourter Tomas Berdych could lie in wait in the last eight – the Czech is a former Wimbledon finalist and one who came within a point of beating eventual champion Feliciano Lopez here 12 months ago.
However, it is the player Djokovic will meet in the semis if his seeding plays out that is of most interest to me – namely Kevin Anderson.
Last year’s US Open runner-up has managed to back up that New York run in 2018 and he’s currently 23-9 for the season.
He won indoors on his return to New York in February before making the final in Acapulco and last eight in both Indian Wells and Miami.
After the switch to clay, Anderson made the semis in Madrid and really should have beaten Diego Schwartzman in the last 16 of Roland Garros. He led by two sets to love but twice failed to serve the match out and lost in five.
Perhaps that loss will still be nagging at him but the switch to grass should favour the 6ft 8in South African, who has shown what he is capable of on it in the past.
In 2015, Anderson used his serve superbly here to mount a run to the final and he followed that up by pushing a then red-hot Djokovic to a fifth set at Wimbledon a few weeks later.
In an injury-disrupted 2016, Anderson lost here in round one and didn’t play the event 12 months ago.
Crucially, his fearsome serve looks in the sort of form it was back in 2015.
He’s currently fourth in the 2018 list for percentage of service games won and also features in the top 10 for percentage of both first-serve points won and second-serve points won.
We all know his return game isn’t his strongest point but even a 10.9% break of serve figure was enough for him to reach the final in 2015. On all surfaces, that figure for the past 12 months is up at 24.6.
It may well be Anderson needs to rely on tie-breaks to win matches at times this week but that’s not exactly a massive problem for those looking to back him as he’s 29-17 in breakers over the last year and 31-21 for his career in them on grass, including winning 13 of his last 17.
Finally, Anderson is well drawn in what is a weak-looking third quarter with the out-of-sorts Jack Sock his seeded quarter-final opponent. Leo Mayer is first up – Anderson has won their last four – before Frances Tiafoe or Jared Donaldson, neither of whom should be feared.
That gives Anderson a chance to bed into the surface again and I feel he’s very much worth backing at 12/1 in the bottom half.
On the opposite side of the draw, a case can be made for Sam Querrey, another big server who has a chance to play himself into the tournament with British wild card Jay Clarke his first-round opponent before, possibly, a clash with Stan Wawrinka, who is struggling to regain anything like his best form following a lengthy injury absence.
The problem with backing Querrey at 22s is a potential clash with Marin Cilic, last year’s beaten finalist and winner in 2012. He trails their head-to-head 5-0.
Cilic, favourite in places, will have his backers I’m sure. I was one of them last year but he was 16s then and now is no bigger than 6/1.
The Croat has been swimming with the big fish over the past year, reaching both the Wimbledon and Australian Open finals, but he’s got a tricky-looking draw with Fernando Verdasco up first and then either Denis Shapovalov or Gilles Muller, both of whom possess fine serves to trouble the best on this surface.
In this section I’m instead going back in with a player I picked out last week, Feliciano Lopez.
The Spaniard is the defending champion here, a fact which was mentioned in last week’s preview of Stuttgart where he reached the quarter-finals only to be edged out by Nick Kyrgios.
A solitary break of serve at the start of the final set proved the difference between the pair but Lopez showed in his three matches that his big lefty serve is very much in business again on the grass after his victory here and run to the Stuttgart final 12 months ago.
He opens against fourth seed David Goffin but Lopez looks the man to beat in that one on grass, particularly given this will be the Belgian’s first match in almost a year on the surface.
A bigger threat to Lopez looks to be Milos Raonic in the second round.
Raonic made the final in Stuttgart, losing only to Roger Federer, but he trails Lopez 4-3 on their head-to-head, losing three of the last four.
A rematch with Kyrgios could follow but the Aussie has never been Mr Reliable or Mr Fit and last week’s encounter really could have gone either way.
Given Lopez is on offer at 66/1, I’m tempted enough to get involved.
Gerry Weber Open
Halle, Germany (outdoor grass)
Best bet:
- 0.5pt e.w. Roberto Bautista Agut at 28/1 (Betfred, totesport, ½ 1,2)
Roger Federer will bid for a 10th Halle title this year and some will see value in the 6/5 being offered in places that he seals that particular deal.
He didn’t let down his short-priced backers in Stuttgart last week, although he hardly made easy work of it either, having to fight back from a set down in his first-round match and then coming within two points of defeat to Nick Kyrgios in the semi-finals.
Still, he’s now settled in on his favourite surface and it would be no surprise to see him lifting a 99th tour-level trophy come Sunday.
That said, Dominic Thiem has beaten Federer in grass in recent years and is his scheduled semi-final foe.
While expecting Federer to win again, I’d personally rather try to hunt out some value in the bottom half with several firms still prepared to offer place terms of a half.
It isn’t an easy task though.
Second seed Alex Zverev has made the final in each of the last two years but I’d want to see how he is fitness wise before getting involved – the German has last seen struggling with a hamstring problem in losing to Thiem in the last eight of Roland Garros.
Kei Nishikori is another who is a constant injury worry and in any case he could be troubled by either Mischa Zverev or last year’s semi-finalist Karen Khachanov on this surface in round two.
Richard Gasquet won Den Bosch on Sunday but you wonder if he’ll be able to go back-to-back – now 31, he’s yet to make two finals in two weeks in his career.
Of some of the other names, Florian Mayer has a strong record in Halle, winning the title two years ago, but had hardly any form of late whatsoever. He did break his losing streak in Stuttgart last week but duly lost in round two.
Peter Gojowczyk is a player who tends to thrive on the faster surfaces but he’s been injured too. His hip wasn’t ready for Stuttgart last week and you wonder if he’s 100 per cent just seven days later. He is, however, offered at 100/1 so if you are prepared to take a chance, the German could be for you. He did beat Milos Raonic here en route to the last eight in 2014.
I’m finally going to have a small bet on Roberto Bautista Agut, admittedly not a player many would usually suggest as a grasscourt star.
He did, however, win his first tour title on this surface, emerging victorious in Den Bosch in 2014 and Halle isn’t known as the quickest grass around.
RBA does like some pace – he’s not a true dirtballer who loves the slow clay – and his draw looks decent.
He’s in the quarter of Nishikori with Jan-Lennard Struff his first opponent with Robin Haase or Joao Sousa to follow.
Again, there’s a good chance to play his way into the tournament and I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see someone other than Nishikori lying in wait on quarter-finals day.
With holes easily picked in the big names in the fourth quarter, odds of 28/1 appeal and a small each-way involvement makes sense.
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