ATP tennis betting tips: Stuttgart & Den Bosch

Last season my outright tennis tips, then on Sporting Life, performed well in the second half of the campaign and it all kicked off with a 20/1 winner in Stuttgart.

So, what better time to return to the fray?

This season I’ve already picked out all four Grand Slam finalists in posts on my Twitter feed – @NetTalkTennis.

Hopefully we can get in among the winners again soon, starting this week with this lot…

Mercedes Cup

Stuttgart, Germany (outdoor grass)

Best bets:

• 1pt e.w. Philipp Kohlschreiber at 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
• 1pt e.w. Feliciano Lopez at 25/1 (various)

Roger Federer will end an 81-day break from competitive tennis this week but such is his stock right now that despite such a lack of matches, he goes off the odds-on favourite in Stuttgart.

It’s a price well worth avoiding.

Federer has made two previous appearances on the grass of this venue and he’s yet to reach the final.

He made the semi-finals in 2016 but lost to Dominic Thiem – hardly a player you would expect big things from on grass – and last year he crashed at the first hurdle, losing to Tommy Haas.

It is worth noting that this year he’s got the added motivation of the world number one ranking being at stake. If he reaches the final, he will wrest it back from Rafael Nadal.

Even so, hitting your straps after such a long break is not easy – the Haas loss 12 months ago came after a similar gap – and I can easily see the aggressive grasscourt play of Mischa Zverev causing him a few problems first up (Zverev must first dispatch Mikhail Youzhny).

At the price, Federer has to be swerved, while I’m also happy to steer clear of seeds Nick Kyrgios and Milos Raonic, both of whom are returning after injury lay-offs.

Kyrgios rarely seems to be fit and while he played doubles (well, one match) at Challenger level last week, he hasn’t played a singles match for two months. Big serve or not, 10/1 is a poor price, particularly given he’s in Federer’s half.

Raonic, a former Wimbledon finalist, can clearly be a threat on grass but he pulled out of Roland Garros with a knee problem which has been troubling him for some time. Match sharpness has to be a worry and is certainly enough to put me off 10/1 quotes.

Tomas Berdych is in Raonic’s quarter of the draw and last year’s Wimbledon semi-finalist could challenge (he made the last eight last year) but he’ll also need to raise his level significantly after an awful clay season in which he failed to win a single match.

Some will be tempted by the 16/1 on offer but I’d rather back Philipp Kohlschreiber in this section; there are plenty of reasons to do so.

His record in his native Germany is very impressive – 11 of his 18 career finals have been played on home soil, with five of his eight titles won in Germany.

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His most recent final came in Munich during the claycourt season, one which went pretty well for Kohli. As well as his Munich run, he beat Roberto Bautista Agut en route to the last 16 in Madrid, a run he replicated in Rome where Jack Sock and Karen Khachanov were decent scalps.

Unlike so many of his contemporaries, Kohlschreiber does not have a problem with the grass.

Indeed, he’s a former champion in Halle, while at this venue he made the final in 2016 with his other two appearances resulting in quarter-final exits (last year he was beaten by eventual champ Pouille).

At 20/1, Kolhschreiber looks the best bet.

I have happy memories of Pouille from last year having tipped him at 20/1 but this year he’s into 12s and his form has been stuttering at best so I’m happy to take him on this time around – as second seed he heads up Kohlschreiber’s half.

Given the concerns I have over top seed Federer, I’ll also go for a long shot in that section, namely Feliciano Lopez.

Like Berdych, he’s struggled on the clay but unlike the Czech he did at least win a few matches and he’s sure to welcome the grass under his feet once more.

Lopez was outstanding on the grass last season, reaching the final here and then going on to win at Queen’s Club the following week.

A big reason for that success was his huge left-handed serve which takes so many opponents way out of court, while he’s also a superb volleyer. For the record, he’s currently 15^th for the year on the list of percentage of first serve points won.

Lopez looks fairly well drawn – Kyrgios is his slated quarter-final foe with Federer a potential opponent in the last four – and the price of 25/1 is most definitely a tempting one.

Libema Open

‘s-Hertogenbosch, Netherlands (outdoor grass)

Best bets:

• 1pt e.w. Stefanos Tsitsipas at 16/1 (Betfred, totesport)
• 0.5pt e.w. Yuichi Sugita at 25/1 (bet365, BoyleSports)

In stark contrast to Stuttgart, it’s 13/2 the field in Den Bosch, Rosmalen, call it what you will.

Richard Gasquet, twice a Wimbledon semi-finalist, heads the betting but he’s becoming less and less reliable these days and reliable was hardly a word I associated with Dicky in the first place.

His French compatriot, Adrian Mannarino, is the top seed and he’s shown he can play on grass but I feel there are others in the field worth turning to ahead of him.

Gilles Muller clearly has good credentials. The Luxembourg veteran arrives as the defending champion. He also made the final here in 2016 and last season was a Queen’s Club semi-finalist before defeating Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon.

Again, the big leftie serve is a major weapon but his 7-12 record in 2018 is worrying. He’s had fitness struggles and at 36 I just sense he won’t be able to replicate last season’s grasscourt efforts, although I’m sure plenty will be prepared to pay at 9/1 to find out.

Instead of backing Muller in the top half, I’m going to take a chance on a player who also won a title on grass in 2017, namely Yuichi Sugita.

The Japanese was a winner of a fairly low-key event in Antalya last summer (not to mention the Challenger at Surbiton) and he’s got an underrated serve which he’s used well on grass in the past.

This season he’s shown what he is capable of on faster surfaces with victory over Jack Sock in the Australian Open before a run to the quarter-finals in Dubai where it took eventual runner-up Lucas Pouille to stop him in three sets.

Sugita, who could meet Muller in the last eight, is offered at 25/1 and looks worth a small play.

In the bottom half, the third quarter looks stacked and predicting who out of Robin Haase, Ivo Karlovic (runner-up last year), Bernard Tomic, Marcos Baghdatis, Daniil Medvedev, Yuki Bhambri and Fernando Verdasco will come through looks tricky indeed.

I’m instead going to head to what looks a much weaker fourth quarter (led by Gasquet) where I’m intrigued to see how Stefanos Tsitsipas performs on the grass at this level.

The Greek was my one to watch at the beginning of 2018 and he’s fully justified that faith thus far with his standout result a run to the final in Barcelona.

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With a big first serve and decent volleys, I think he can do some damage on the grass, and the fact that he won Junior Wimbledon in 2016 backs up that belief.

Maybe it’s too early but if it’s not then you won’t be getting decent prices on the young Greek much longer.

As it is, 16/1 is on offer about him winning a fairly low-quality event this week and I’ll have a go at that.

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