World Cup: Most & fewest goals tips

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In my latest World Cup betting preview, I take a look at some of the most popular specials markets which surround a major football tournament – score/concede the most/fewest goals, and also the highest/lowest scoring groups.

An historical breakdown of the previous market winners is provided in a bid to help you land a decent payout, as well as my verdict and best bets for each.

To score most goals

History

2014: Germany (18) – winners
2010: Germany (16) – third
2006: Germany (14) – third
2002: Brazil (18) – winners
1998: France (15) – winners

• The highest scorers have also been the tournament winners three times out of five (60%)
• Every winner of the market has made at least the semis and therefore played the maximum of seven games
• The average number of goals required to win the market is 16.2
• The winning tallies have ranged between 14 and 18
• Germany have been the highest scorers in each of the last three tournaments
• The market has won been by a European team four times out of five, with South America providing the other winner

Verdict

You can get 11/2 about Germany winning this market for the fourth time in a row which seems fair.

History suggests your team needs to play the full seven matches in order to reap a dividend and Germany look perfectly capable of reaching the last four – something they’ve done on seven of the last nine occasions. South Korea look there for the taking in the group, while neither Sweden nor Mexico, beaten 4-1 at last summer’s Confederations Cup, should be strong enough to stop them in the group stage.

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If you’ve read my outright preview, you’ll also be aware that I’m also keen on Spain and Brazil going well but they are also at the head of this particular betting list.

If you are looking for a long shot, Uruguay at 33/1 look interesting. With Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani in their attack, they certainly have goals in them and they’ve landed in what looks the weakest group.

It’s easy to see them thumping Saudi Arabia, while they also look a better side than both Russia and Egypt. Portugal could well follow in the last 16, a winnable tie. That looks the value price – Uruguay are as short as 14s elsewhere.

Best bets

• Germany – 11/2 (Unibet, 888Sport)
• Uruguay – 33/1 (BetVictor, sportingbet)

To score fewest goals

History

2014: Iran, Honduras, Cameroon (1) – all group stage
2010: Algeria, Honduras (0) – all group stage
2006: Trinidad & Tobago (0) – group stage
2002: France, China & Saudi Arabia (0) – group stage
1998: Colombia, Tunisia, Bulgaria, Japan, USA (1) – all group stage

• The lowest scorers have always exited in the group stage and therefore played the minimum of three games
• The market winners have failed to score three times out of five
• The market has never been won by a team scoring two or more goals
• CONCACAF (Caribbean & North and Central America) and Asian teams have topped this market (including ties) most – four wins each with African teams featuring three times

Verdict

I’d have Panama as favourites to score the fewest goals – least if, like most bookies, we are being grammatically incorrect – but the layers go with Saudi Arabia.

Debutants Panama only just scraped through qualifying (a goal two minutes from time in their final game sending them to Russia). That goal was one of just nine scored in their 10 final-round qualifiers.

They’ve now landed in a hard group with both Belgium and England looking tough foes, ones who conceded just nine goals between them in qualifying. The Panamanians’ other game is against Tunisia, an organised side who defend well – they let in just four goals in their six final-round qualifiers.

To enhance Panama’s claims in this market, take a look at their 2018 record in friendlies: played four, scored none. That run has included matches against two sides who didn’t even qualify for the World Cup, namely Northern Ireland and Norway. 9/1 looks decent.

As for a long shot, I can’t help but mention Argentina – bring on the ridicule.

They may have Lionel Messi, Sergio Aguero and Gonzalo Higuain to call upon in their attack, but the fact is they were all available in qualifying, yet Argentina found the net just 19 times in 18 games. OK, if they score one a game in the finals, you won’t be getting paid out here but they have landed in one of the toughest groups with Croatia, Nigeria and Iceland their opponents and there are long-standing problems in the team.

That lack of goals is certainly one and I can see a scenario in which they make an early exit – just as they did in 2002 when they scored just two goals. They are a massive 250/1 to score the fewest goals in Russia and that’s worth some small change.

Best bets

• Panama – 9/1 (Sky Bet)
• Argentina – 250/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral, sportingbet)

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To concede most goals

History

2014: Brazil (14) – fourth
2010: North Korea (12) – group stage
2006: Serbia & Montenegro (10) – group stage
2002: Saudi Arabia (12) – group stage
1998: Brazil (10) – runners-up

• In three of the five 32-team tournaments, the team conceding the most has exited in the group stage and therefore played the minimum of three games.
• However, in the other two, the market winner has at least made the semi-finals, thus playing the maximum seven games. On both occasions that team was Brazil.
• The average number of goals conceded required to win the market is 11.6.
• The average number of goals conceded per game by the market winners is 3.24.

Verdict

History throws up winners from both ends of the spectrum – group-stage flops to finalists. Brazil can be backed at 50/1 to win the market for the third time in six renewals which, given their ‘we’ll score more than you’ tradition, is worth more than a glance. History alone suggests it’s way too big.

Panama again enter this equation, although admittedly they did only concede 10 in their 10 final-round qualifiers. However, it is well known – and the history of this market backs it up – that teams from the CONCACAF region face a gulf in class between qualifying and the finals.

Perhaps a better indicator of Panama’s potential in this market is the fact they conceded six against fellow qualifiers Switzerland in March. Now they must go up against both Belgium – a side with a track record of smashing minnows (they won five of their 10 qualifiers by four or more goals) – and England, plus Tunisia. 9/1 looks perfectly acceptable.

Finally – and veering away from history – I’m also tempted by a team on offer at 33/1, namely Poland.

In European qualifying, they conceded the most goals of all the group winners (and by some distance), letting in 14 in their 10 games against Denmark, Montenegro, Romania, Armenia and Kazakhstan. It was hardly the most daunting of groups, yet they conceded at least twice in four matches.

They now find themselves in a group with Colombia, Senegal and Japan which the bookies make the most competitive of the eight. With all four sides harbouring hopes of progressing to the knockout stage, I’m envisaging some open games.

With Robert Lewandowski in their attack, Poland, like Brazil, are capable of outscoring opponents and could offer a spot of value.

Best bets

• Panama – 9/1 (Unibet, 888Sport, 188Bet)
• Poland – 33/1 (JenningsBet)
• Brazil – 50/1 (Unibet, 888Sport, JenningsBet)

To concede fewest goals

History

2014: Costa Rica (2) – Quarter-finals
2010: Portugal, Switzerland (1) – Last 16/Group
2006: Switzerland (0) – Last 16
2002: Argentina (2) – Group
1998: France & Paraguay (2) – Winners/Last 16

• Previous winners of this market have played the full range of matches – from a low of three (Switzerland, 2010 & Argentina, 2002) to a high of seven (France, 1998).
• However, the most common stage of elimination for the market winner is the last 16 – three of the seven winners (including ties) have been knocked out then.
• Europe has been responsible for four of the seven market winners (including ties), South America two and the CONCACAF area one.
• The average number of goals conceded required to win the market is 1.4.
• The average number of goals conceded per game by the market winners is 0.35.

Verdict

Of the four goals markets I’ve looked at so far, this is probably the hardest to price up – and the history shows why.

Teams exiting in the group stage have won it, as have the eventual champions. And those in the middle ground – quarter-finalists – have also enjoyed market ‘success’.

Perhaps that’s why not many firms have priced up.

118Bet have though and it could be worth taking a chance on Egypt and Switzerland at 25/1 and 40/1 respectively.

Egypt find themselves in what looks to be the weakest group, one containing hosts Russia, Uruguay and Saudi Arabia. They open against Uruguay, a match star man Mo Salah is struggling to be fit for. That will only serve to harden the theory of approaching your opening game as ‘do not lose’.

Neither Russia nor the Saudis look full of goals and it’s not hard to envisage the Egyptians just missing out on a top-two slot.

Even if they do sneak through, they would likely be big underdogs against either Spain or Portugal in the last 16.

As for the Swiss, they have won this market at two of the last three World Cups and have always had a strong reputation for good organisation. With a weak attack, boss Vladimir Petkovic will know how they perform at the back will be crucial to their chances.

The problem for them in terms of this market is having Brazil in their group but again that is the opening game of the tournament for both sides and the Swiss will surely approach it looking to stifle and, hopefully, take at least a point from the game. It is worth remembering they beat eventual champions Spain 1-0 in their opening match of the 2010 tournament, largely thanks to a fine defensive display.

Costa Rica and Serbia are Switzerland’s other group opponents. Again I see the possibility of them being edged out of the top two despite being defensively solid.

Best bets

• Egypt – 25/1 (188Bet)
• Switzerland – 40/1 (188Bet)

Highest scoring group

Group H is regarded as the outsider in this market but I disagree and feel 10/1 offers definite value.

The pool is comprised of Poland, Senegal, Colombia and Japan and is regarded as the most open, at least according to the group winner and to qualify odds.

I agree it looks the most competitive but I don’t believe that necessarily means it will feature some tight, goal-shy games.

Poland conceded 14 times in qualifying which by far the most of the European group winners. They also have the goals of Robert Lewandowski going the other way.

None of the finalists from Africa scored more in qualifying than Senegal (15) and they have plenty to offer in an attack led by Sadio Mane, fresh from a season which saw him score 10 Champions League goals, but also featuring Diafra Sakho and AC Milan’s M’Baye Niang.

Colombia also have real attacking talent in the shape of Radamel Falcao, 2014 Golden Boot winner James Rodriguez and Juan Cuadrado.

Finally Japan are one of the competition’s weaker sides, whose best players are again in attacking areas – think Shinji Kagawa, Shinji Okazaki and Keisuke Honda. They were OK defensively in qualifying but the step up is big and they could ship goals at this level – they conceded six in 2014 despite a similarly-decent record in qualifying.

Group G – Belgium, England, Tunisia and Panama – is the favourite with most firms. But Tunisia are solid and not the whipping boys some prices are suggesting, while England rarely score bucketloads or concede many. Panama look like they could concede plenty (see above) but they could well set out not to let goals in, particularly if they do get thumped by the Belgians in game one.

Neither can I be backing Group F – Germany, Mexico, Sweden and South Korea. Certainly the Swedes like to keep things tight and a close game with Mexico, which looks likely to decide who goes through with Germany, appears to be in store.

Best bet

• Group H – 10/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Sky Bet)

Lowest scoring group

I’m tempted here by Group B – Spain, Portugal, Morocco and Iran.

2010 winners Spain and reigning European champions Portugal are hot favourites to qualify but it may not be the goal-fest many seem to be expecting.

Morocco and Iran were both miserly in qualifying. Morocco conceded just a single goal and not one in the final group round. The Iranians, meanwhile, let in just five goals in 18 matches and kept nine clean sheets out of 10 in the final section.

Yes, there’s a step up being taken here with two of Europe’s best sides to be faced but Iran showed at this level four years ago that they can be tough to break down – they drew 0-0 with Nigeria and held Argentina to the same scoreline until injury time. They remain managed by Carlos Queiroz.

You can get 8/1 which seems more than fair.

Best bet

• Group B – 8/1 (Sky Bet)

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More World Cup tips

• Outright market
• Golden Boot
• Scorers & assists