Time for a look at the World Cup Golden Boot/top scorer market. Hopefully the prices will last longer than some of yesterday’s did…
Best bets:
- Romelu Lukaku at 18/1 (various)
- Eden Hazard e.w. at 50/1 (188Bet)
- Isco e.w. at 50/1 (various)
- Paulinho e.w. at 150/1 (Sky Bet, 10Bet, SportPesa)
In contrast with the outright tournament betting, there are plenty of reasons to suggest that big prices can reward when it comes to the top scorer.
Most obviously, the bookies are paying to four places (a quarter of the odds in most cases).
Then there’s history. There have been several big-priced winners of this market at previous World Cups, none more so than 100/1 shot James Rodriguez four years ago. And, of course, plenty of other tasty prices have filled the places.
I’m therefore certainly on the hunt for contenders from further down the market, particularly given it’s easy to pick some fairly significant holes in some of those at the top.
Lionel Messi starts favourite but I’m far from convinced about Argentina staying the course – and again history shows that it pays to play the full seven games when it comes to winning this market.
This is a team which scored just 19 times in 18 qualifiers and while Messi did get seven of those, including a hat-trick in the decisive win over Ecuador, the price is too short for me, especially with so much pressure resting on the Barcelona man’s shoulders.
Cristiano Ronaldo is also among the frontrunners but again you have to wonder about how many goals Portugal will actually score. This is a significant step up from qualifying when Ronaldo was scoring for fun (15 in total). His previous best at a tournament is just three – at Euro 2016 – and so again I’m happy to leave well alone.
Neymar remains second favourite on most lists but I can’t be backing anyone who has played once since February at such a price. Make all the claims about a rest being good for him you want, but I find it impossible to believe he will be at his best given the nature of his preparation. There’s also the potential for Gabriel Jesus (and others) to grab goals for Brazil.
Harry Kane is 16/1 but for me that’s a price too short for any England player not called Gary Lineker, no matter how good his Premier League record is, while Germany are another side who could easily share the goals around. The inexperienced Timo Werner is their shortest-priced contender but he’ll be playing alongside Thomas Muller, scorer of five goals in each of the last two World Cups. Neither is for me.
The one I like the most from the head of the market is Romelu Lukaku at 18/1.
Belgium have Panama and Tunisia in their group and that’s significant, as is the fact that both will be played in a ‘live’ match – the Red Devils have a strong track record of smashing ‘minnows’.
That description may be a little harsh on Tunisia, who have a decent defensive record, but certainly Panama look a weak team at this level.
Belgium won five of their 10 qualifiers by four or more goals, while at Euro 2016 they posted a 3-0 win over Ireland and a 4-0 victory against Hungary.
Lukaku has been responsible for putting plenty of those opponents to the sword with 22 goals in his last 25 internationals. More recently, the figures look even better with 10 bagged in his last seven.
The odds suggest Belgium will exit at the quarter-finals, which would give Lukaku a maximum of five games, but there’s little doubting that Roberto Martinez’s men do have the potential to exceed bookie expectations.
With the potential for goals in the Belgian side, I can’t resist also getting involved with Eden Hazard at a standout 50/1 (40s elsewhere).
Since the start of 2015, he’s scored 15 goals in his 29 starts for his country, figures which include seven in his last nine.
Despite Chelsea’s disappointing season, he managed to score 17 times, including the winner in the recent FA Cup final. The goal that day was a penalty and he’ll be on spot-kick duty in Russia too.
Given Chelsea’s travails, Hazard has been linked with a move elsewhere and the World Cup is very much the shop window this summer. If he is eyeing a transfer, he’ll have that extra level of motivation too.
Diego Costa is another with potential – he’s playing for a team very much fancied to go close to winning the trophy and the odds suggest Spain will play the maximum seven games.
Costa has six goals in his last eight Spain appearances but he managed to net only seven after returning to Atletico Madrid in January, including just one in the last 11 games of the season.
It’s also not absolutely certain he’ll be the man tasked with heading up the attack by Julen Lopategui so I’ll pass and move onto his team-mate Isco, at twice the price.
The Real Madrid man looks a tasty alternative at 50/1.
He’s made himself a key part of this Spain team and he has rewarded his manager’s faith in him by repaying him in goals – it’s now nine in his last 11 appearances.
And unlike Lukaku, it’s not as if the majority of those goals has come against lowly-ranked nations. Isco scored a hat-trick against Argentina in March, while he’s also had a brace against Italy and one against England in recent times.
For my last selection, here’s a three-figure price for you – namely 150/1 about Paulinho, who definitely has potential to earn himself a place.
It’s seven goals in his last 14 Brazil games for the one-time Spurs misfit who is now playing for Barcelona.
Like Isco, he’s become a major player in his national team despite not always holding down a regular place in his club side.
As I write, Brazil are the favourties to win the tournament. One of their midfielders who likes to make late runs into the box and is scoring at a goal every two games over the past year or so should not be on offer here at 150s.
One final piece of advice from me when it comes to this market – make sure you know what you are betting on.
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Some firms will bet purely on the top goalscorer and if two or more players finish level will settle via their dead-heat rules.
However, others will be betting on the winner of the Golden Boot. This will have one winner as assists will count as a tie-breaker should two or more players finish level. If the players still cannot be separated, the one which has played the fewest minutes will be declared the winner.
In short, check the terms of the market and, if necessary, your chosen bookmaker’s rules regarding dead heats.
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