Some of my best bets for the forthcoming World Cup are, as ever, in some of the more obscure markets.
More tips will follow in the coming days – a look at the Golden Boot, plus an assessment of the highest/lowest scoring team etc – but for now get stuck into this lot.
Top team scorer
Switzerland – Ricardo Rodriguez at 16/1 (Unibet, 888Sport)
The AC Milan full-back is on penalties for the Swiss and also takes a mean free-kick around the box. With his surging runs forward, he’s also known to net from open play, as evidenced in his scoring record for the national team. That recent record shows he’s bagged four in his last 10 appearances. I’m not convinced the Swiss will score that many in a group containing Brazil, Costa Rica and Serbia and certainly they do not have an obvious goal-getter with Haris Seferovic likely to lead the line and Stoke’s hit-and-miss Xherdan Shaqiri also expected – at least by his manager – to chip in. 16/1 about Rodriguez here looks great value and for me is one of the best bets of the tournament.
Peru – Edison Flores at 6/1 (Sky Bet, Betway, Betfred, totesport)
Peru are another side who may struggle to find the target in Russia with any regularity and the odds suggest they will be going home after their three group-stage matches against France, Denmark and Australia. Leading striker Paolo Guerrero has had a ban overturned but the fact is he’s played just two club games since October; he has to be rusty at best and two goals in a warm-up against Saudi Arabia are not enough for me to think otherwise. Jefferson Farfan, once of PSV and Schalke and now at Lokomotiv Moscow, is also a pretty short price but the theory in Peru that he and Guerrero may not fit into the same XI. The value therefore lies in backing Flores, who has been a key man for his national team. Mainly starting on the left of the attack, he’s managed to score nine times in his last 22 starts. There looks every chance that one goal is enough to at least claim a share in this market so this looks a bet.
Morocco – Hakim Ziyech at 5/1 (BetStars)
Another penalty-taker, Ajax star Ziyech enjoyed an impressive qualifying campaign and now has six goals in his last nine international starts. Khalid Boutaib is expected to start as their central striker but he finished the season goalless in eight games in the Turkish league. Ziyech is the class of the Moroccan attack and in a team that looks unlikely to score too many, he is worth a small bet.
Player goals
The market depth at the bookies who use the Kambi platform – Unibet, 888Sport, 32Red, Grosvenor Sport etc – is to be applauded and they are all offering a variety of over/under markets on the number of goals scored by individual players. Unsurprisingly, there looks to be value to be had…
Isco to score over 1.5 goals at 9/10 (Unibet, 888Sport)
I’m keen on the Spanish star for the Golden Boot but this is a market which offers an alternative way to back the Real Madrid man. Spain look likely challengers for the trophy so I feel there’s every chance he plays the full seven games in Russia. Isco has become a key part of the national team and has scored nine goals in his last 11 appearances. Adding another two in Russia looks perfectly achieveable for a player who looks guaranteed to start.
Most tournament assists
Joshua Kimmich at 18/1 (JenningsBet)
Most tournament assists is an interesting market and I feel a bet worth having here is on Germany’s Joshua Kimmich. He may have already been cut from an opening 22/1 to 17/1 by Unibet/888Sport but there’s still some juice in the price – the lesser-known JenningsBet, who have a high-street presence, go a point bigger too. Kimmich topped the European charts with nine assists in qualifying, while he had 17 in 47 games for Bayern Munich this season. As a marauding right-back, typical of the modern game, it’s easy to see why. A guaranteed starter for one of the favourites, there’s a strong chance he plays in seven games. Germany’s tournament history is another positive. They have been the top-scoring team in last three World Cups. Die Mannschaft have also made at least the semi-finals at four of the five 32-team editions of the tournament, thus playing the maximum of seven games at them. The only time they missed out was back in 1998 (QF). The market leaders are Kevin de Bruyne and Neymar but the former is less likely to play seven games, while Neymar still has fitness questions to answer and as I’ve already indicated elsewhere, I feel he’s too short in a number of markets given his lack of action since February.
Assists match bet
David Silva to have more assists than Dele Alli at 3/5 (Unibet, 888Sport)
Here’s an assists match bet worth investing in. Fresh from an outstanding season for Manchester City, Silva will now look to make a major impact on the World Cup and he looks much more likely to do so than Alli, whose place as a starter in the England team has come under threat from Jesse Lingard of late. Raheem Sterling is also an option in his area of the field. Even if he does start, Alli is playing for a team expected to go out in the last 16. Spain, on other hand, will reach the semis at least and therefore play seven matches, if the odds are to be believed. A final statistical reason to back Silva is the pair’s assists history. Alli has just four in 23 appearances (1 in every 5.75 games), while Silva has 32 in 122 (1 in 3.8), including seven in his last 10.