I got into cards betting a lot more at the recent World Cup and so have decided to look into those markets a bit more for this season’s Premier League.
I’ll kick off this column with my best cards bets – not sure I’ll be able to do it every single week but any thoughts I do have, I’ll post.
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Before my best bets for this weekend’s action, here are some key stats from last season.
Most yellow cards: 2017/18
Romeu 11 (34 games) – Southampton
Doucoure 10 (37) – Watford
Barnes 10 (36) – Burnley
Xhaka 10 (38) – Arsenal
Murray 9 (35) – Brighton
Otamendi 9 (34) – Man City
Zabaleta 9 (37) – West Ham
Gosling 8 (28) – Bournemouth
Tomkins 8 (28) – Palace
Hogg 8 (30) – Huddersfield
Milivojevic 8 (36) – Palace
Duffy 8 (37) – Brighton
Francis 8 (32) – Bournemouth
Others with high yellow card averages
Puncheon 5 (10) – Palace
Rose 4 (10) – Spurs
Luiz 4 (10) – Chelsea
Bardsley 5 (13) – Burnley
Kompany 4 (12) – Man City
Premier League referee card stats: 2017/18
Matchday 2 (Aug 18-20)
Four ‘to be carded’ bets for me this week. Here they are…
Jefferson Lerma – West Ham v Bournemouth (Sat, 1500) – 5/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Lerma was the most-booked player in Europe’s top leagues last season, collecting no fewer than 16 cards in 26 appearances for Levante in La Liga.
Spain’s top division sees more cards handed out than its English equivalent but that is some tally and now Lerma is set for his Premier League debut which could be quite a culture shock.
The Colombian is likely to be undercooked following a pre-season delayed by his World Cup appearance and then a transfer dispute which saw him fail to show for training with Levante when first expected.
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The midfield area is likely to be fiercely fought over in this one. I’d expect a reaction from West Ham after they were overrun in midfield last week at Anfield and if Jack Wilshere and Mark Noble keep their places, the tackles could well be flying in.
Sky Bet have Lerma at 11/10. For me, 5/2 looks a decent shout – as long as he’s in the team. I’d suggest waiting for the line-ups an hour before kick-off before getting involved as he may be eased in from the bench.
Referee: Stuart Attwell – a good man to have in charge if you are wanting to see cards. Attwell for fourth in terms of cards shown last season of those who took charge of more than a single game, averaging 3.6 per match.
Wesley Hoedt – Everton v Southampton (Sat, 1500) – 7/2 (bet365)
Hoedt was booked in seven of his 28 Premier League games last season, including in this very fixture.
There may well be some bad blood left over from that one which saw umpteen cards, including a controversial red for Saints, who then conceded a late equaliser – a result which might have cost them their place in the top flight.
Hoedt offers the value in the ‘to be carded’ market for this one, primarily because he’s likely to line up on the left-hand side of a back three. That will mean having the deal with the pace of Theo Walcott and Seamus Coleman, who will raid down the right for the hosts.
Referee: Lee Mason – concerns here as Mason only handed out 2.44 yellows per game last season, making him one of the five most lenient officials. With this in mind, probably best to keep stakes small.
Luka Milivojevic – Crystal Palace v Liverpool (Mon, 2000) – 12/5 (bet365)
Milivojevic collected nine yellow cards in 37 games in all competitions last season, plus another four in 14 2016/17 appearances for Palace.
He’ll be playing a defensive-midfield role against a fast-breaking Liverpool side which has arguably the best forward line in the league. Last season showed what Salah, Firmino and Mane can do but last weekend we also saw what Naby Keita brings to the team. His dribbling in Milivojevic’s area of the pitch will invite tackles and all things considered the Serb looks ripe for another booking in this game.
Only four teams committed more fouls last season than Palace (relegated Stoke and West Brom among them). They chalked up over 11 per game and I can see that trend continuing against these opponents.
That can clearly test a ref’s patience and it’s no surprise to see only two teams collected more yellow cards than their 72 (West Ham and West Brom had 73 each).
Sadly early 3/1 quotes about Milivojevic have been snapped up but 12/5 is still perfectly acceptable.
Referee: Michael Oliver – 3.33 yellows per game last season; mid-range ref in terms of cards issued. Oliver was ninth of 18 (who had more than one game) for cards shown. Started with something of a flurry last week, showing four. No worries of leniency here.
James Tomkins – Crystal Palace v Liverpool (Mon, 2000) – 9/2 (various)
9/2 about a player carded in five of his last nine Premier League appearances is simply too big. Overall, Tomkins collected eight yellow cards in 28 games last season putting him well up the cards list.
He finished with four in eight games and added another last week at Fulham. Now he faces an outstanding Liverpool attack and could well find himself dragged around in his centre-back position.
A player who goes up for corners, it’s not difficult to envisage the former West Ham man ‘taking one for the team’ as he races back to stop a Liverpool counter-attack either.
Referee: Michael Oliver (see above)