At time of publication, we’re still waiting to see if last week’s preview makes a profit – 9/2 pick Roger Federer will play Novak Djokovic in Cincinnati on Sunday, Djokovic being the player who beat our each-way shot Marin Cilic in the semis.
Time waits for no man, however, and with the US Open now very much in view, it’s a Sunday start for this week’s event in Winston-Salem, so without further ado…
Winston-Salem Open
Winston-Salem, USA (outdoor hard)
Best bets:
- 0.5pt e.w. Leonardo Mayer at 40/1 (Paddy Power)
- 0.5pt e.w. Ryan Harrison at 40/1 (Betfred, totesport)
- 0.5pt e.w. Pierre-Hugues Herbert at 80/1 (Betfred, totesport)
With the US Open now only a week away, we’re back to the potentially-lucrative pre-Slam events.
There have been plenty of decent-priced winners in such weeks over the years and we only have to look back a few months for evidence.
Reviewing the six tournaments which have taken place before this year’s Grand Slams and you find the winners have included Daniil Medvedev, Marton Fucsovics, Damir Dzumhur and Mischa Zverev.
Clearly fewer of the big names play in weeks such as these, preferring to save their efforts for the bigger task ahead, but those players have all won at tasty double-figure prices.
This week there’s just the single tournament – in Winston-Salem, North Carolina – where the field features three of the world’s top 20.
I’ll start by suggesting why none of them will be lifting the trophy next Saturday.
Singles and doubles draw, for those of you keeping track at home. 🤔 pic.twitter.com/ftHBRcY6AP
— Winston-Salem Open (@WSOpen) August 18, 2018
Top seed and favourite David Goffin reached the semi-finals in Cincinnati last week and it’s hard to believe he’ll want two virtually full weeks of tennis ahead of the US Open. Indeed, having retired from his semi-final in Ohio, it’s easy to see him not even making it to the start line.
Pablo Carreno Busta is a better bet. He’ll probably want more matches having waited until Cincy to make his summer hardcourt debut. However, while he’s a former champion here he also fell at the first hurdle last season and has another tricky opener this year – more on that later.
Kyle Edmund is the other member of the trio but he’s won just one match of four during the hardcourt summer thus far and that form has to be a concern to anyone backing him right now.
Holes can also be picked in some of the others towards the head of the market.
Sam Querrey has made three semi-finals here but hasn’t won back-to-back matches in the current hardcourt campaign.
Hyeon Chung only recently returned from injury and his performances have suggested that. He also withdrew from Toronto with another problem so how fit he is right now has to be open to question.
And Steve Johnson, another who has made the last four here in the past, has suffered three straight losses.
All need matches, all have the talent to win here if they suddenly find their best tennis. However, current form tells me to look elsewhere and that’s what I will do.
Given what I’ve already written, this looks a good opportunity to seek out some big prices and first on my list is Leonardo Mayer.
Better known for his claycourt exploits, Mayer played well in defeat to Roger Federer in Cincinnati last week (after beating top-20 star Lucas Pouille) as he returned to the surface.
It’s taken some good players to beat him in Masters 1000 hardcourt events this season with Mayer defeated in the last 16 of Indian Wells to Juan Martin Del Potro in a tight one. He then lost to Borna Coric in Miami in another close three-setter.
Mayer recently played himself back into form on the Hamburg clay, making the final, and last week showed he’s using that confidence to good effect on the faster surface.
The Argentine is in the third quarter, one containing Edmund and Johnson. He could meet the former in round two but with Edmund hardly firing on all cylinders now, it’s worth taking a punt on the 40/1 shot, who, if he makes the third round, should have a shot at going deep.
Next on my list is another player at 40/1 – Ryan Harrison, who made the final in Atlanta only a few weeks ago.
He had the better of that match with John Isner for the first hour before losing in three.
Harrison showed his battling qualities that week, winning all of his other matches in three sets, so failing to back it up can perhaps be explained by that.
Harrison starts off against a wild card from the university at which the tournament is played and that should give him a chance to play himself into the event.
Then would come a clash seed Gilles Simon, who hasn’t yet played on hardcourts this summer. Harrison has a poor record against the Frenchman but his three losses all came back in 2012 and so I’m prepared to chance him at a tasty price.
If Simon is seen off, the path through the draw looks decent. I’d be surprised if Filip Krajinovic is waiting in the last 16 given his struggles since his return from injury. A meeting with Goffin could follow but that potential quarter-final match smacks of one which the top seed wouldn’t be too disappointed to lose.
My final pick is back in the bottom half of the draw and is 80/1 outsider Pierre-Hugues Herbert.
The Frenchman, strong on serve, only lost 7-6 in the third to Goffin in Washington recently, while after qualifying in Toronto he was beaten by John Isner after testing him fully in the first set which he lost on a tie-break.
A former world doubles number one, Herbert likes to come forward and the fairly fast DecoTurf courts should help him to do that here.
They certainly have in the past – this was the scene of his best-ever singles performance with Herbert reaching the 2015 final.
He has the game to trouble second seed Carreno Busta in round two, a match which is obviously crucial to the bet.
Again, should our man come through, the draw in front of him really opens up.
As you can see, the three selections all involve risk and the need for an upset win but what they do have going for them is motivation.
With none of the three being seeded at the US Open, they will all know they could be playing Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal on day one in New York.
With that in mind, they will be giving their all in Winston-Salem, which isn’t something you can say for sure about some of the market leaders.
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