It was a decent start to this column last week with Wesley Hoedt being carded at 7/2 to ensure a level-stakes profit was made.
Just the two bets this week, explanations below.
If this is the sort of content you’d like on your website, please get in touch.
Matchday 3 (Aug 25-27)
40 or more booking points in Fulham v Burnley (Sun, 1600 BST) at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
I‘ve been waiting for David Coote to take charge of a game this season and now the time has arrived. Were there a market available, Coote would probably be the favourite to average the highest number of bookings this season. He’s shown at least four cards in 15 of his last 18 matches at all levels and dished out six or more on numerous occasions during that run. Only three Premier League teams picked up more bookings than Burnley last season – they collected 65 in all – and they come into this one on the back of a long trip to Greece in the Europa League, a competition in which they’ve been picked up cards fairly regularly. Don’t be surprised if they start to tire in the second half of this one and receive some more from a ref who is quick to go to his pocket. Individual candidates for cards in the game include Ashley Barnes (if he starts) – he collected 10 last season – and Jack Cork (seven in each of the last two campaigns). However, I’ll stick to the overall card count given Coote’s stats.
Ryan Bennett to be carded in Wolves v Man City (Sat, 1230 BST) at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
Romain Saiss and Ruben Neves led the way in terms of cards for Wolves in the Championship last season but both are considerably shorter than Bennett in the market for this one. I’m not sure why. Bennett was booked seven times in 27 games last season, an average which puts him only a fraction behind his two better-known team-mates.
It is also notable that he collected seven (in 22 games) in his last season in the Premier League, three years ago with Norwich, when he found the step up difficult to deal with. Here he plays in arguably the more dangerous position than Saiss and Neves – he’s going to have to deal with Sergio Aguero, who was on fire last week against Huddersfield, and maybe Gabriel Jesus, not to mention the likes of David Silva bursting forward from deep. With a card-happy ref in charge, Bennett looks a good price at 10/3.
Referee: Martin Atkinson – No top-flight ref showed more red cards last season (five in all) while Atkinson had the third-highest yellow average of those who took charge of more than one game.
Click here for last week’s column which includes some key card stats from the 2017/18 season.