Click here for my outright preview of the US Open men’s singles
US Open
New York, USA (outdoor hard)
Best bets:
- 2pts Sloane Stephens to win the title at 10/1 (various)
- 0.5pt e.w. Aryna Sabalenka to win the title at 40/1 (various)
- 1pt Aryna Sabalenka to win the fourth quarter at 14/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
The 2016 US Open was the last Grand Slam tournament before Serena Williams fell pregnant. She went off at less than 2/1 to win it.
Back then we knew what a women’s outright market would look like at a Slam – topped by Williams, who would be a short-priced favourite.
Since then (well, after the 2017 Australian Open which she won while pregnant really) we’ve gone to the other end of the spectrum – wide open markets with firms struggling to find a jolly.
That’s the case again this time around and, as the players gather at Flushing Meadows, it’s 13/2 the field.
Of course, Serena is back now. At least back playing but she’s not back to the form or even the physical shape she was in pre-motherhood. Perhaps she never will be. That doesn’t mean she won’t win here, of course, but I believe it’s only her past achievements which have her at the head of the market.
I did back her at Wimbledon when she was the same price but that was on grass where Serena (and her sister Venus) have dominated for the best part of 20 years.
US Open women's singles draw pic.twitter.com/962jFdrdKt
— The Grandstand (@TennGrand) August 23, 2018
While Serena has won the US title six times, the dominance has not been the same – more players believe they can beat her on this surface and I’m pretty sure we won’t see the scattering of seeds that we did in SW19 earlier this summer – something which undoubtedly helped Williams reach the final.
Once there she was soundly beaten by Angie Kerber and a return to the hardcourts has failed to bring titles either.
Her worst-ever loss to Jo Konta in San Jose can be explained away by events in the lead-up to the match – Serena learned her late sister Yetunde’s killer had been freed just before walking onto court.
In Cincinnati she lost in three sets to Petra Kvitova, playing fairly well but ultimately still losing to a player who isn’t one of the big favourites here.
Simona Halep, the current world number one, is a potential alternative to Williams and, I’d argue, looks a better bet at 7/1.
She won in Montreal and was within a point of completing the summer hardcourt double in Cincinnati before losing to Kiki Bertens.
Halep looked spent in the latter stages of that clash and so it was no surprise to see her pull out of New Haven but she turned up there talking about an old Achilles injury which is a slight worry even to those who feel her withdrawal was simply about saving herself for the bigger test to come.
The Romanian, who finally captured a Slam title at the French Open in June, also has a rough draw with Serena potentially awaiting in the last 16. Garbine Muguruza, Karolina Pliskova and Ashleigh Barty are all possible quarter-final opponents too.
Given the holes which can be picked in Halep’s case, I prefer to back defending champion Sloane Stephens at 10/1.
Her draw looks much more comfortable and the American, who enjoyed a stunning hardcourt summer 12 months ago, concluding it with the title here, looks in the shape to retain her title.
Stephens would have likely signed up to a draw which has Elise Mertens and Elina Svitolina as her biggest dangers and she’s certainly playing well enough to come in with plenty of confidence – that’s before you start thinking about the boost she’ll get by returning to a venue where she achieved so much in 2017.
The 25-year-old pushed Halep all the way in the Montreal final having defeated Svitolina with ease en route and I’m prepared to write off a loss to Mertens in Cincy the following week.
Stephens has proved she’s a big-stage player, winning in Miami back in the spring and then almost adding a second Slam title when she reached the French Open final in June – a match she led by a set and a break before succumbing to Halep.
The player Stephens succeeded as champion, Kerber, is considered by the bookies the most likely to come through the bottom half of the draw.
She’s defensively very strong but those defences could be tested to the limit in New York with big-hitters such as Madison Keys, Coco Vandeweghe, Jelena Ostapenko and Maria Sharapova possible opponents in her quarter, one which looks tough to call.
I think the fourth quarter looks much weaker and it is here where my title outsider has been drawn.
Both Caroline Wozniacki (knee) and Petra Kvitova (shoulder), the two leading seeds in the section, come in under injury clouds, as does another of 2018’s breakout stars, Mihaela Buzarnescu. Meanwhile, Naomi Osaka arrives having spoken publicly about the struggles she’s had mentally since winning in Indian Wells earlier in the year.
Many will like the chances of Kiki Bertens after her Cincinnati success but I’m prepared to take a chance on Aryna Sabalenka, a player who has improved a lot in 2018.
She appears to have really built on helping Belarus become surprise Fed Cup finalists last year and recently beat Jo Konta, Karolina Pliskova, Caroline Garcia and Madison Keys in Cincinnati before falling to Halep in the last four.
The 20-year-old power-hitter continued that form this week in New Haven and at time of writing is due to contest the final. In doing so she’s taken her career record against top-10 players to 5-5 – it’s 4-1 over the summer hardcourt season.
40/1 in the outright market is worth a dabble, as is 14/1 that she comes through this section to reach the semis, given so many of those above her in the market have question marks surrounding them.
Click here for my outright preview of the US Open men’s singles