Free US Open tennis betting tips: Men

The final Grand Slam tournament of the season begins on Monday and hopefully we can add to a decent run at the majors in 2018 (see below).

Without further ado…

Click here for my outright preview of the US Open women’s singles

US Open

New York, USA (outdoor hard)

Best bets:

• 4pts Rafael Nadal to win the title at 67/20 (MarathonBet)
• 1pt e.w. Marin Cilic to win the title at 20/1 (Sky Bet, Unibet, 888Sport)
• 1pt Stefanos Tsitsipas to win the second quarter at 16/1 (Betfred)

Rafael Nadal looks the best bet for the US Open which gets under way at Flushing Meadows in the New York borough of Queens on Monday.

The bookies appear to have got themselves in a bit of a muddle in recent weeks, shortening up Novak Djokovic a bit too much.

In my opinion they have placed too much weight on the result of one match – Djokovic’s Cincinnati Masters final victory over Roger Federer – and that has had the consequence of pushing Nadal out to a tasty price. A top price of 67/20 is available but 3/1, of which there is plenty on offer, looks perfectly acceptable.

OK, the swing back the other way has begun following Thursday’s draw, one from which Nadal benefitted. The world number one avoided many of the big dangers, most notably Djokovic, who instead was placed in the same quarter as second seed Federer.

It seems it became all too easy in Cincinnati to forget about Nadal’s dominant displays in Toronto the previous week when Federer was not in attendance.

The Spaniard dropped just a single set en route to the title and looked in great form, particularly considering it was his first hardcourt tournament since January.

He’s the defending champion in New York (having also won here in 2010 and 2013) and while some will point out the fact he didn’t face a single top-20 player in last year’s tournament, the draw he’s received this year makes it more than possible he’ll get another comfortable path through to the final.

Kyle Edmund looks the only realistic candidate to take Nadal out before the second week, while last year’s beaten finalist Kevin Anderson – a possible quarter-final foe – has Ryan Harrison in round one and potentially Denis Shapovalov in round three.

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Juan Martin Del Potro can’t be trusted to make a scheduled semi-final – one which would be a rematch of the pair’s epic Wimbledon quarter-final – given his injury issues which have re-emerged of late.

Also in the second quarter are Milos Raonic, Grigor Dimitrov and Stan Wawrinka but only one of those will make the last 16 and none looks in the shape or form to be beating Nadal.

Everything points to Nadal making the final where the bookies expect Djokovic to await.

That’s probably a fair assessment, although it’s far from certain to work out that way.

Djokovic was impressive against Federer in Cincinnati but the Swiss was way short of his best and undoubtedly helped the Serb look good that day. He really struggled on return in particular.

Some will feel that’s doing Djokovic a disservice but it does fit in with that week’s pattern. Djokovic had been much less convincing en route to the final, being taken to a deciding set in four of his five pre-final matches. The previous week he lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas in Toronto so you simply can’t say this is Djokovic back to his best. It isn’t.

Still, he will be tough to beat if he continues to play as he did against Federer and would surely start favourite in any quarter-final meeting between the pair.

Federer, who last won in New York 10 years ago now, has the tougher route to that match with a possible path being Benoit Paire in round two, Nick Kyrgios in round three and Hyeon Chung in round four. Given the mentally of the first two and the fitness issues of the latter, it probably won’t turn out that way but Federer may need to work in week one and that’s not good for a man now 37. I can leave him alone.

A player I do like in the bottom half though is Marin Cilic, winner here in 2014 and a semi-finalist 12 months later.

He’s become much more consistent in recent years and he’s made two of the last five Slam finals – Wimbledon last season and the Australian Open this.

The warm-up events saw him lose only to Nadal and Djokovic. In Toronto he was the only player to take a set off Nadal, while in Cincinnati he certainly had his chances in a match with Djokovic that the Croat lost 6-3 in the third.

Those losses probably do sum up Cilic’s career – he’s been found wanting against the very best too often. Yet in this era, which players can’t you say that about and if ever there was a venue where he could deliver against the true elite it is here.

For in 2014, Cilic destroyed Federer in the semis before repeating the trick in the final against Kei Nishikori – just arriving at Flushing Meadows will fill him with belief and confidence after what he did that year.

This time around he’s in quarter three and is my favourite to come through the section. As it is, the layers make Alex Zverev the market leader but the young German still has a ropey record at Grand Slam level (one quarter-final in 13 appearances).

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He’s very aware of the need to do something about it and has duly hired Ivan Lendl, hoping the former world number one will make the same impact with him that he did with Andy Murray in 2012. It’s only just happened though and surely it is too early for results in that relationship, particularly given Zverev’s strange results in the build up.

He looked excellent winning Washington but then wasted numerous match points against Tsitsipas in Toronto before losing to Robin Haase in Cincy.

Cilic is the proven performer at the Slams in this section and can come through it. 5/2 in the quarter betting is worth considering but I’m prepared to chance him at 18/1 each way in the outright market.

My final bet is Tsitsipas in the second quarter, that of Del Potro, Dimitrov et al.

As I’ve already suggested, I’m far from convinced that Delpo will be able to give his best here and he looks a shaky market leader.

Incredibly Andy Murray is second favourite but his lack of matches means he’s easily dismissed, while only one of Raonic, Dimitrov and Wawrinka – all ahead of Tsitsipas in the betting – can reach the second week.

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Tsitsipas has made huge strides this year – from a starting position of 91 he’s in the top 20 now following his final run in Toronto – and could well make odds of 16/1 look huge. He’s 13/2 elsewhere.

A big first serve is a major weapon and will win him plenty of points, while his game off the ground has improved immeasurably and is certainly no weakness.

I’ve long sung the praises of he young Greek and I can definitely see him reaching the latter stages of a Slam at some point.

Sadly 20/1 is gone but at 16s it’s worth chancing that the time is now.

Click here for my outright preview of the US Open women’s singles

My advice in this year’s Slams so far…