Jefferson Lerma delivered a winner for the column last week at 14/5, although there was a dearth of cards in general with multiple games seeing none at all.
Cards punters will be hoping that changes this week and frankly it should. I’ve picked out no fewer than six bets for this weekend’s Premier League games.
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Any time card
Phil Bardsley – Burnley v Bournemouth (Sat 1500) – 13/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Ryan Fraser has made a flying start to the season for Bournemouth and no fewer than six players have been booked for fouling the Scottish international so far. The left winger is an excellent dribbler – a big reason for that high number of related cards as he lures defenders into tackles. Playing down the left wing, Fraser’s pace and trickery look likely to spell trouble for Burnley right-back Phil Bardsley, who can certainly be rash. He’s been booked in his two Premier League starts this season (Burnley’s last two games) and also picked up a yellow in Europe. It is also worth mentioning Bardsley’s hot-headed temperament here – something which could be tested if Fraser goes down in the box as easily as he did against Leicester last week. All things considered, the 13/5 price about Bardsley being booked again looks decent. Last week’s winner Jefferson Lerma is shorter this week (no surprise there) but Sky Bet’s 15/8 will still tempt some – I’ll keep a watching brief this week.
Referee: Anthony Taylor – Churning out the cards so far this season with 21 shown in his five games to date. That average of 4.2 per game has him second only to Stuart Attwell in the card-happy stakes. Was in the top half of the table for cards shown last season too. Definitely a good official to have in charge if you’re looking for cards.
DeAndre Yedlin – Crystal Palace v Newcastle (Sat 1500) – 11/2 (bet365)
After his comments last week, there’s going to be a lot of attention on Wilfried Zaha in this game. I would not be surprised were that to also stretch to the referee. Zaha played in a wider role last week, playing primarily down the left wing, and having helped his side claim a 1-0 victory at Huddersfield, you’d imagine Roy Hodgson will be sticking largely to a winning formula. Zaha will likely be up against Yedlin, the Newcastle right-back, and I’m not sure it will take much for him to earn a card for a foul on Zaha in the current climate. The American has no great record of picking up cards but certainly he’s worth chancing at the 11/2 offered by bet365. Isaac Hayden, Newcastle’s defensive midfielder, is another I considered at 13/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair). He’s already served a suspension this season for a red card at Cardiff and having collected seven bookings in 26 games last season, he could well come into play if it emerges Zaha will play more centrally.
Referee: Andre Marriner – one of the more lenient officials last season but was quite happy to dish out the cards last weekend in the Wolves v Burnley game – two sides who had good disciplinary records heading into the fixture.
Glenn Murray – Brighton v Tottenham (Sat 1730) – 7/2 (various)
Murray has committed the most fouls in the Premier League by some distance and last term his persistent fouling saw him collect plenty of cards – nine in total. This season it’s two so far. It’s no co-incidence that both of those came in home games; last season seven of the nine cards were collected at the Amex Stadium. Basically the more the ball is hit towards Brighton’s target man, the more likely he is to commit fouls and receive cautions, and his supply chain is better on home soil than on the road. 7/2 looks a decent price.
Referee: Chris Kavanagh – averaged 3.53 yellows per game last season, a figure putting him firmly in the top half of the table for cards produced. Nothing off-putting in those stats.
Pablo Zabaleta – West Ham v Chelsea (Sun 1330) – 12/5 (Unibet, 888Sport)
Andriy Yarmolenko – West Ham v Chelsea (Sun 1330) – 9/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Like the aforementioned Fraser, Eden Hazard is a player whose dribbling ability draws fouls from opponents and given the perfect storm surrounding this game in terms of cards, I simply have to have an interest in those playing on his side of the field. They look set to be Pablo Zabaleta at right-back and Andriy Yarmolenko in front of him. Zabaleta has picked up two yellow cards in his two Premier League starts this season; Yarmolenko was carded on his first start (last week at Everton) and also collected one as a sub last month. In total, West Ham have already had 18 yellows this season (the most of any team by a country mile) and now they face a derby with proper needle which has a history of cards – five of the last seven meetings have featured seven or more. On top of that, the referee fits the bill when it comes to dishing out the cautions (see below). With Marcos Alonso happy to join Hazard in attack on the Chelsea left, Yarmolenko will simply have to track back and get involved with dealing with the Blues’ duo. And if he doesn’t that will leave Zabaleta, booked nine times last season, even more exposed.
Referee: Mike Dean – Was the strictest ref in terms of cards issues last season (if you ignore the two who took charge of only one game). He produced 3.72 yellows per game (and also showed three reds) in 2017/18 and I’m more inclined to look at that bigger data pool than this term’s handful of games which has seen him average only 3.00 so far.
Most bookings points
West Ham to get more than Chelsea at 21/10 (William Hill)
With West Ham racking up the cards so far (see above), 21/10 about them accumulating more booking points than Chelsea (only four cards in five games this season) looks too good to ignore. They may have won for the first time last week but it’s hard to see Chelsea’s defence being as generous as Everton’s and so another tough day at the office could be in store. It’s not difficult to see both their players and fans becoming frustrated, adding to what is always a spicy (to say the least) derby atmosphere. Don’t get me wrong, Chelsea could easily get lured into something of a fight but West Ham’s price screams value.
Total bookings points
40 or more in Leicester v Huddersfield at evens (Sky Bet)
I mentioned ref David Coote a few weeks ago but he failed to deliver a profit, showing one card less than was needed to land a similar bet to this. He’s earned a card-happy reputation and has now shown at least four cards in 16 of his last 20 matches at all levels. Eight of those have seen him hand out six or more. OK, most of the matches in question have been Championship games and we should probably expect Coote’s average to be a bit lower in the top flight, but old habits die hard and I think it could pay to keep following him to show four or more cards; this is only his second Premier League game of the season.
Sky Bet go evens about 40 or more booking points. Neither side is churning out the bookings – nine and eight respectively so far – but both have already had a man sent off, in Leicester’s case two, and remember it’s 35 points for any player picking up two yellows. Both sides are in need of a gritty performance, Huddersfield having yet to win and the Foxes coming in off a mauling at Bournemouth. With that in mind, I’m perfectly happy to back Coote to return to his old ways.