Free tennis betting tips: St Petersburg and Metz

The ATP World Tour returns this week with two events and I’ve picked up some long shots I like the look of.

Hopefully you followed me in for some winners during the US Open when I was previewing matches for the BetVictor Blog, although sadly there was no joy on the outright bets.

Here’s hoping that can change this week…

St Petersburg Open

St Petersburg, Russia (indoor hard)

Best bets:

• 0.5pt e.w. Martin Klizan at 40/1 (Various)
• 0.5pt e.w. Joao Sousa at 50/1 (BetVictor, 188Bet)

It was at this event last year that I managed to pocket a 25/1 winner in the shape of Damir Dzumhur and 12 months on I’m picking out two even bigger-priced players.

Conditions here have slowed considerably in recent years and Portable Rebound Ace will again be used this season.

That should work in Joao Sousa’s favour and at 50/1 the Portuguese is worth a shot in the top half of the draw.

It’s a section led by top seed Dominic Thiem but he arrives here straight off the clay after helping Austria to Davis Cup victory at the weekend. Thiem famously plays more than virtually any player on the tour too and this is usually the time of year where it begins to catch up with him. In short, he looks a poor favourite this week.

Roberto Bautista Agut is another with strong claims having been to the semis here in each of the last three years. However, he’s yet to get over that hurdle and looks short enough.

I’ll instead chance Sousa, a player who returned to form at the recent US Open when reaching the last 16.

That event played fairly slow this year and it’s worth noting too that Sousa beat Alex Zverev in Indian Wells, where the court speed is also tardy.

Two of Sousa’s three career titles have come indoors, while he’s also been a runner-up on indoor hard twice, including here in 2015.

That followed a semi-final run in 2013 and was followed by a quarter-final showing in 2016.

Some will expect Sousa to fall at the first hurdle to seed Daniil Medvedev but the Russian struggled during his nation’s Davis Cup win over Belarus at the weekend.

This looks a decent opportunity for Sousa, who is in Thiem’s quarter.

In the bottom half, another man with indoor hardcourt pedigree, Martin Klizan, is my outside pick.

Klizan has twice won a title on indoor hard, notably doing so here in 2012. More recently he triumphed in Rotterdam in 2016.

The Slovak has a big-hitting game to cut through the slow court and looks more than capable of troubling those in his quarter.

Embed from Getty Images

They include last year’s runner-up Fabio Fognini. You never know what you’ll get from the Italian but my approach is usually to look to take him on. I very much doubt he’ll be keen on facing Klizan first up (the Slovak will need to see off Evgeny Donskoy first).

Denis Shapovalov is the other seed in the quarter but he’s done very little on indoor hard in his fledgling career and can also be taken on.

It’s harder to dismiss the chances of Karen Khachanov – twice a winner in Davis Cup at the weekend to back up his impressive US Open – and Stan Wawrinka, but only one of those two can reach the last eight where Dzumhur could then lie in wait.

I’ll steer clear of that tougher section and back Klizan, who I certainly can see reaching the last four if he brings his A-game.

Confidence should be up following a good run on clay, which included winning Kitzbuhel last month, while look back to the indoor swing earlier in the season and you’ll see he beat Stefanos Tsitsipas on indoor hard.

It’s also not tough to see him losing in the semis but it’s worth noting that Klizan is 6-6 in ATP semi-finals and 6-0 in finals, so when he does go deep he often delivers a profit for his each-way backers.

Moselle Open

Metz, France (indoor hard)

Best bet:

• 0.5pt e.w. Filip Krajinovic at 28/1 (Sky Bet)

In contrast to St Petersburg, this tournament is considerably faster and a throwback to an era when indoor tennis meant slick conditions.

That’s reflected in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga being a three-time champion in Metz. Last year there was a surprise champion but not in terms of style of play – Peter Gojowczyk loves to come forward and is very much at home in these conditions.

Tsonga has chosen this event to make his comeback from injury and he’s actually drawn the defending champion in round one. The winner will then face top seed Kei Nishikori in what is quite a section of the draw.

I’ve often mentioned the strong record of French players at their home tournaments and this is a good time to remind you of that. This event has been staged 15 times in Metz with nine of the champions being French.

While Tsonga looks unlikely to be lifting the trophy again, Lucas Pouille, the 2016 champion, holds strong claims, as does Richard Gasquet, a runner-up way back in 2004. Both have been on indoor hard in Davis Cup week so should be well prepared, albeit Gasquet didn’t make it onto the match court.

Stefanos Tsitsipas is another player I’ve mentioned a lot in this column but such has been his rapid rise that he’s now going off at some very short prices and I can swerve the second seed here, especially given he could face the tricky Ricardas Berankis in his opening match – the Lithuanian is a good player on indoor hard, although he’s been woefully out of form on other surfaces lately.

Instead I’ll take a chance on Filip Krajinovic, a player fighting his way back to form following injury.

He made his comeback at Wimbledon and has done little of note so far but returning indoors should help him.

Embed from Getty Images

There were signs towards the end of the summer hardcourt campaign in North America that the worm was beginning to turn with Taylor Fritz beaten in Winston-Salem, while at the US Open only the extreme heat seemed to prevent the Serb defeating Matt Ebden in round two.

Krajinovic has rested for almost three weeks since that retirement loss and heading inside will bring back memories of his run to last season’s Paris Masters final.

That’s seen by many as a flash in the pan but Krajinovic backed it up to some extent on the indoor courts earlier this year by making the last eight in Marseille where he beat Gilles Simon – a potential second-round foe here – before losing to eventual finalist Pouille. There was also a narrow loss to Grigor Dimitrov in Rotterdam.

Krajinovic is in Gasquet’s quarter but he’s four times the price of the local hero. 28/1 looks worth a small play.

• Could I write for you or your company? Would you like my tips on your website? If so, please get in touch.