No fewer than five recommended bets this week, including a 6/1 shot and a foray into the total cards market.
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Anytime card
Jefferson Lerma – Bournemouth v Leicester (Sat, 1500 BST) – 14/5 (BetVictor)
I mentioned Lerma – the most-booked player in Europe’s top leagues last season – in a previous column but he failed to make the team. He made it into the Premier League XI for the first time against Chelsea last time out – and was duly booked. No great surprise given he collected 16 cards in 26 La Liga games for Levante last season. 14/5 about him adding another here is good value. First of all, the Colombian is still getting used to the different style of English football. Second, Leicester are exactly the type of team against whom Lerma is likely to collect a booking. They break at pace and especially with Jamie Vardy back in the side, it’s not difficult to envisage Bournemouth’s defensive midfielder finding himself exposed on the counter. Sky Bet go evens – someone is wrong and I believe it’s BetVictor. bet365 offer an acceptable 12/5 too.
Referee: Craig Pawson – not the ideal ref for this bet but he has already managed two red cards in his three games this season, as well as issuing 10 yellows – that’s around the average.
Victor Camarasa – Chelsea v Cardiff (Sat, 1500) – 3/1 (Unibet/888Sport)
Like Lerma, Camarasa is still adapting to life in the Premier League following a summer move from Spain. The former Real Betis man will have his work cut out against a Chelsea midfield including N’golo Kante, Jorginho and Mateo Kovacic. In addition, there’s Eden Hazard dipping into all sorts of areas, although mainly he’ll be expected to play on the left. It was that area of the pitch Camarasa was working in last time out against Arsenal and if he’s forced to deal with the Belgian’s fabulous footwork, there’s every chance he finds his way into the notebook for the third time in four games.
Referee: Jon Moss – a friendly face for punters hoping to see cards. He averaged 3.69 yellows last season, putting among the highest card issuers. He’s shown 11 in three games this term, plus two red cards.
Nicolas Otamendi – Man City v Fulham (Sat, 1500) – 6/1 (Sky Bet)
Otamendi received nine yellow cards in 34 Premier League games last season and that immediately makes 6/1 look big. Aleksandar Mitrovic is in fine form in the Fulham attack and will surely cause City’s defence problems at times, even if they do manage to dominate possession once more. The issue here is whether Otamendi will actually play. He’s yet to do so for City this season, although I like his chances here. He was excused international duty this past week and having a pair of fresh legs available is good news for boss Pep Guardiola, especially with their Champions League opener against Lyon coming up on Wednesday.
Referee: Stuart Attwell – is backing up his well-earned reputation for cards. He booked 3.6 players per game on average last season and so far this has already flashed 14 yellow cards in his two games. Such stats make the big prices on offer about some of City’s stars here worth a second look, even if you think they will ease to victory.
Jack Wilshere – Everton v West Ham (Sun, 1600) – 5/2 (BetVictor)
Following their awful start, the Hammers are rock bottom of the Premier League table and they are also propping up the fair play standings having received 13 yellows in four games. Everton, for their part, have collected seven yellows and two reds. With a hard-fought midfield battle expected and a strict referee in charge (see below), Wilshere is very much in play in the anytime card market. The England international has two in four games so far, adding to the nine in 25 he was shown last season when playing for Arsenal. West Ham need a response after their dreadful start which has seen them lose all four matches thus far. A lack of effort was among the criticisms thrown at them after losing to Wolves before the international break so I’d expect them to be fired up and out to prove those critics wrong here with Wilshere chief among those ready to get stuck in.
Referee: Martin Atkinson – a disciplinarian, who issued an above average 3.64 yellows per game last season, as well as a league-high five red cards. It’s 13 yellows in four games so far this campaign. If things get a bit spicy, expect him to try to control things via his pocket.
Total cards
Under four cards – Wolves v Burnley (Sun, 1330) – 4/5 (William Hill)
This looks the perfect storm for a game low on, or perhaps even devoid of, cards. Ref Andre Marriner is one of the most lenient in the league having only issued 2.67 yellows per game in 2017/18. He’s also operating bang on that average so far this season. In addition, Wolves have picked up just three cards in their four matches so far, while Burnley’s figure of five is also well below average. William Hill offer under 4 cards at 4/5 which I slightly prefer ahead of going under bet365’s Asian line of 3 at 9/10 or Paddy Power’s 10/11 about their being under 40 booking points.