I’m not enthused by much in the cards markets this week, aside from one standout price.
I’ve also plumped for one long shot in the Manchester derby which should add interest to a game that could easily get spicy quickly.
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Fabian Schar – Newcastle v Bournemouth (Sat 1500) – 8/1 (bet365)
The referee is probably the reason bet365 are prepared to go so big on some of their anytime card prices for this game. Schar is not the only player who looks overpriced but he is by far the best bet. Just look at his recent stats.
He’s been booked in both Premier League games he’s played this season, plus two of the three he’s played for Switzerland in the Nations League. He was also carded in two of three matches at the World Cup. Overall, he’s been booked in six of the last 10 games he’s played.
That’s quite some run and a look back over a longer period shows that last season he picked up 10 bookings in 25 La Liga matches. Still not fully up to speed with the English game as he admitted this week, and facing a lively, confident attack which includes the dribbling skills of Ryan Fraser, Schar should not be 8/1 here.
Aside from the ref, the only problem is he may not start, although after he shored up the Newcastle defence last weekend after coming on a half time, I’d imagine Rafa Benitez will want to stick with Schar. And remember, if he doesn’t get onto the pitch it’s simply stake returned.
Referee: Lee Probert – He was the ref who showed the fewest cards (per game) last season. But so far this term he’s upped his tally considerably, currently averaging 3.2 yellows, while he’s also produced two reds. Not an ideal appointment but it would take a lot more to put me off backing Schar at 8/1.
Sergio Aguero – Manchester City v Manchester United (Sun 1630) – 11/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
As you can probably imagine, plenty of cards tend to get shown in a Manchester derby – the last four have had bookings points make-ups of 90-60-45-60.
With a ref more than happy to produce them (see below), I felt it worth looking towards some of those offered at a bigger price in the anytime market and Aguero seems a tad big at 11/2.
He’s been booked four times in 14 games this season in all competitions and is a player who can get a bit narky when things aren’t going well – he’s earned several cards for dissent over the years.
City have torn most sides to shreds at home this season but I’d expect a Jose Mourinho tactical plan which is set out to thwart. That could easily frustrate a side that has got used to winning easily and that’s when things could get interesting.
Referee: Anthony Taylor – Averaged 3.44 yellows per game in 2017/18 and is currently running at 3.64 this season. In a game which could be hard to keep a lid on, it’s not difficult to see him going to his pocket in a bid to keep control.