After an 8/1 winner prior to the international break, Mark Your Card returns with three anytime card bets for this weekend’s Premier League games, plus a banker in the most bookings points market.
There’s also a look at the card festival which should be the Copa Libertadores final, second leg between two giants of Argentine football – River Plate and Boca Juniors.
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Anytime card
Felipe Anderson – West Ham v Manchester City (Sat, 1500) – 11/2 (Unibet, 888Sport)
The Brazilian’s skills have already caught the eye this season but I suspect you’ll be seeing more about his more dubious side at some point soon.
He makes plenty of questionable challenges when tracking back – something he’ll need to do in this game – and also has a petulant side; he’s already been booked for challenging a referee’s decision this season.
Overall it’s now three cards in 12 games for the winger and all have come at the London Stadium. A coincidence? Maybe not as he seems the sort of talent who responds to a good atmosphere, be that with his mazy runs or his tackling. With everyone looking to take down City, it should be raucous from the off in this one, although if City do get on top that’s when the petulant side of Anderson may come out.
11/2 about him being booked again looks big to me.
Referee: Andre Marriner – Has shown 30 yellows and two reds in his 10 games this season in the Premier League. Not the best appointment when looking for cards but not the worst either.
Ashley Young – Manchester United v Crystal Palace (Sat, 1500) – 9/2 (bet365)
Carded in four of his last eight games, Young looks a decent candidate to go back into the book in this one.
Ideally, he’ll be staying at right-back to go up against the pace and dribbling skills of the fit-again Wilfried Zaha, who is currently the league’s most-fouled player going by the ‘fouls per game’ stats.
The problem is he could be asked to go back to the left-hand side, where he played most last season, due to Luke Shaw’s suspension.
Jose Mourinho has plenty of options though – Marcos Rojo could be a straight swap for Shaw on the left. Alternatives on the right include Diego Dalot, Matteo Darmian and Antonio Valencia.
Young was booked nine times in 39 appearances last season and even if does line up on the left, he’ll still probably have to deal with the pace of Andros Townsend which won’t be easy.
Essentially I’m surprised to see Young at 9/2 – he’s not that price in this market very often these days – and it looks worth backing, although waiting for the team news is wise if you want to try to ensure that extra Zaha angle.
Referee: Lee Mason – Issuing an above-average 3.5 cards per game so far this season so no worries on this front.
Jefferson Lerma – Bournemouth v Arsenal (Sun, 1330) – 9/5 (Unibet, 888Sport)
The bookies have wisened up to Lerma’s card stats but even at the shorter price this looks a good time to get back on this particular bus.
The most carded player in the top European leagues last season has already collected four cards in nine starts for the Cherries but despite this boss Eddie Howe said this week he would not look to change the Colombian’s game style.
“When you are that kind of player, I don’t know if you can take that natural aggression away when that is part of their strength,” said Howe. “I haven’t had too many conversations with him regarding that because I think it would be counter-productive.”
Three of Lerma’s four bookings have come in home games, with two received against sides with pace and trickery in Manchester United and Chelsea.
Arsenal have that in spades and anyone who saw them against Leicester last month will know how they can cut through teams with their ability to pass at speed.
That could see them moving around holding midfielder Lerma regularly and it’s not hard to see a player with a proven track record of resorting to foul means doing so again here.
Referee: Craig Pawson – A great appointment for this bet as he leads the league in cards shown (per game). He’s averaging 4.63 bookings so far, while he’s also sent three players off. As an added bonus, he knows all about Lerma already having booked him against Leicester earlier in the campaign.
Most bookings points
Watford – Watford v Liverpool (Sat 1500) – 11/10 (William Hill)
A bet based largely on simple maths this.
Liverpool are the best-behaved team in the division in terms of cards, having collected only 12 yellows in their 12 outings so far. Watford, on the other hand, are the second worst with 27 yellows and one red received.
In Jose Holebas, Watford have the league’s most-booked player this season with six cards, while the Hornets’ tough-tackling midfield always looks likely to add to the overall tally given the physical nature of Abdoulaye Doucoure, Etienne Capoue and Will Hughes.
Odds-against about the hosts picking up most bookings points looks more than fair.
Referee: Jon Moss – When making a decision on a bet such as this, thought process isn’t effected as much by the choice of referee, although you’d probably want a fairly high-carder if given the choice. As it is, Moss is averaging three yellows per game and three reds. Slightly low on count one compared to average, well ahead of the curve on the second.
Copa Libertadores final, second leg
If you like a cards bet, you simply have to be interested in this game between the two great Argentina sides, River Plate and Boca Juniors (Saturday, 2000 GMT)
Arch rivals in Buenos Aires, the cards fly when they meet. Here are the bookings points totals from the last 20 stagings of the ‘SuperClasico’:
60-70-150-100-70-85-80-70-40-95-40-125-90-100-70-80-105-90-100-80.
Translated, that’s:
Red card in 7
70+ points in 17
80+ points in 13
100+ points in 6
As you can probably imagine, the bookies are giving little away with some predictably high lines so it is a referee-related angle that looks to be, potentially, the route to profit.
Uruguayan ref Andres Cunha, who took charge of one of the World Cup semi-finals back in July, has shown 52 yellow cards and five reds in his 10 Copa Libertadores matches this year, including 8+1 in one of River’s semi-final legs and 6+1 in one of Boca’s quarter-final games. On the sendings-off front, he’s shown a red in each of his last three games in this competition.
In his last eight games in all competitions, his bookings points totals have been:
70-105-105-125-70-85-130-65
But it his penchant for a late card which is where potential value lies for those ready to bet in play. You’ll see why in his stats across the 27 matches he’s taken charge of in 2018:
Card in last 15 mins: 26 (the odd one out saw a card shown in the 75th minute)
Card in second-half stoppage time: 17 (inc 6 of 10 in Copa Libertadores)
Two or more cards in second-half stoppage time: 6
In short, get ready to bet in-play on a late card. You’ll obviously need to assess the state of the game, the amount of stoppage time expected and the odds available, but there’s definite potential here.
If one team is one goal up after 89 minutes – and there was little between the sides in a first leg which ended 2-2 – or even if one is ahead on away goals, then there’s clearly a chance of a card for time wasting or a cynical, clock-eating foul. Alternatively, history shows these two go down fighting so if there is a wider margin in terms of the scoreline, don’t be put off too much.