Last week’s column produced two winners from four bets – Ashley Young being carded at 9/2 and Jefferson Lerma rewarding those who backed him to be booked at 9/5.
That’s a decent-enough return (although I’m still wondering how Watford managed to avoid picking up a single card against Liverpool) and with the much-hyped Derby Day taking place this weekend, there are plenty more opportunities for cards punters. I’ve got four picks in the anytime card market.
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Nicolas Otamendi – Manchester City v Bournemouth (Sat, 1500) – 13/2 (bet365)
Otamendi was left out against Lyon in midweek but I’d expect him to back in the team here ahead of either John Stones or Aymeric Laporte, who could well be saved for Tuesday’s tougher trip to Watford.
The Argentine is yet to be booked in four Premier League games this season but he was nine times in 34 appearances last term. In addition, his two Champions League matches this season have both brought cards.
Otamendi is a player who struggles against pace and with Callum Wilson and Ryan Fraser both possessing plenty of that and in good form, the 30-year-old could well be tested here and 13/2 about him finding his way into a pretty card-happy ref’s notebook looks tempting indeed.
The fact he’s been booked in three of his five previous games against the Cherries possibly adds weight to that pace theory but either way it’s certainly another factor in our favour.
It’s worth keeping an eye on the team news, especially as there remains a chance Vincent Kompany could play ahead of Otamendi. If that’s the case, simply transfer your stake onto the Belgian at the same price – again it’s too big.
Kompany has now been booked in five of his last 10 starts for City. It’s three in six (all competitions) this season; last season the figures were seven in 21.
Referee: Stuart Attwell – averaging 3.67 yellows per game this season, just ahead of last season’s mark. Those figures have put him well up the list of officials most likely to show a card. The warning with Attwell is he can be feast or famine – his average of 3.67 so far has been achieved despite him failing to issue a single card in two of his six games.
Sokratis Papastathopoulos – Arsenal v Tottenham (Sun, 1405) – 23/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
It’s not certain Sokratis will play but if he does, then 23/10 is too big.
He was part of a back three at Bournemouth last week when he was booked for the fourth time in seven Premier League starts.
It’s fair to say he’s still adapting to English football and I don’t think a North London derby debut is quite what he needs right now.
This could well be another culture shock for the Greek, who can be turned by a player running at pace. Spurs have plenty of those, with Mauricio Pochettino spoilt for choice with Dele Alli, Son Hueng-min and Lucas Moura are pushing for spots in attacking midfield areas. There’s also Harry Kane’s presence to deal with, hardly a minor issue.
Spurs impressed with their slick passing against Inter in midweek, winning that game without starting either Son or Christian Eriksen.
Arsenal look in for a game here and Spurs will surely look to prey on Sokratis’ vulnerabilities.
Referee: Mike Dean – Always a good appointment if you are a punter looking for a card to be shown. Dean averaged the most bookings last season among refs who took charge of multiple Premier League games. This season he’s issuing them at an even faster rate (3.8 per game so far, as opposed to 3.72 through 2017/18). He’s also shown three reds. As for his history in this fixture, his last three North London derbies have seen five, eight and seven cards.
Richarlison – Liverpool v Everton (Sun, 1615) – 7/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Jurgen Klopp praised the Brazilian in his pre-match press conference on Friday – “what a player he is” – so don’t be surprised if the hosts keep a particularly close eye on him.
Richarlison is already the fourth-most fouled player in the league this season and in the febrile atmosphere of his first Merseyside derby, it would be no surprise at all to see him getting frustrated, particularly if Liverpool’s dominance of this fixture continues, which is exactly what the bookies expect to happen.
Everton have produced some insipid performances over the years at Anfield with their forwards often starved of service.
That could be another reason for Richarlison’s frustrations to emerge, just as they did at Bournemouth earlier in the season when he was sent off. He’s also been booked once.
Referee: Chris Kavanagh – Averaging only 2.89 yellows per game this season but was up at a well-above average 3.53 across the whole of 2017/18. In addition, this is a combustible fixture which has seen more red cards than any other in Premier League history.
Andre Gomes – Liverpool v Everton (Sun, 1615) – 11/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
The Barcelona loanee has caught the eye since coming into the team in late October but shining in home games against Cardiff, Brighton and Crystal Palace is a bit different to making an impact away to one of the Premier League’s top sides.
Any flaws will likely be exposed here and we should certainly find out whether the Portuguese is truly up to speed with the English game with a real battle expected in midfield where the stylish Gomes also likes a tackle.
He’s currently committing 2.6 fouls per game on average, putting him third on the most frequent foulers list and one of those above him, Phil Bardsley, has only played twice.
All things considered, 11/4 about Gomes finding his way into the notebook in this helter-skelter fixture looks decent. He’s as short as 11/10 elsewhere.
Referee: Chris Kavanagh (see above)