Andre Gomes kept things ticking over for this column last weekend, being carded at 11/4 in the Merseyside derby. That added to 9/2 and 9/5 winners the week before and an 8/1 bounty prior to the international break.
I didn’t do a column for the midweek round of games but those following me on Twitter – @SchoolerSport – will have seen that of the two bets I put up, both won. Wilfried Zaha was booked on Tuesday at 4/1 in Brighton v Palace, while the following night Fabian Schar landed a similar bet in Everton v Newcastle as a 2/1 shot.
Here’s hoping that good run can continue this weekend – I’ve got four anytime card bets for you.
Jefferson Lerma – Bournemouth v Liverpool (Sat, 1230) – 2/1 (Betfred)
You might be getting tired of me bringing up Lerma but then again he’s earned us plenty of profit already this season. The Colombian may be an old friend but there are more reasons than sentimentality for me to be tipping him up again this week.
The defensive midfielder should be in for another busy afternoon here against an attack filled with pace and a team which can be devastating on the break. He’s already been carded in five of 11 Premier League games. Add in his record at the end of last season (when playing in Spain) and he’s now been booked in 13 of his last 22 league outings.
Four of his five this term have come on home soil, while it’s also notable that three have come against high-quality opponents in Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea.
Referee: Lee Mason – Averaging 3.63 yellow cards per game thus far, putting him the top five in the strict list. He is also awarding more fouls per game than any other ref in the Premier League. Finally, Mason booked Lerma at Chelsea earlier in the season. All in all, he looks a great appointment for the bet.
Luka Milivojevic – West Ham v Crystal Palace (Sat, 1500) – 3/1 (Unibet, 888Sport)
The Serb was among the most-booked Premier League players last season – eight times in all – but it took him a while to get going on the cards front this time around. However, he’s making up for lost time having been booked in four of his last six games for bad challenges. Significantly, all of those cards came in away games.
The midfield looks likely to be a key battleground in this one with the likes of Mark Noble and Declan Rice in opposition. Palace will be desperate to bounce back after being well beaten by 10-man Brighton in midweek but West Ham’s tails are up after they smashed Newcastle and Cardiff in the last week, albeit losing Marko Arnautovic in the process.
The Palace captain will be expected to help set the tone and he’ll do that with his chasing and (often mis-timed) tackling. The 3/1 price stands out from the other layers and looks worth taking.
Referee: Anthony Taylor – Is ‘carding’ below the average rate for the top flight so not the ideal appointment but he did book Milivojevic at Everton earlier in the season and also once last term.
Robert Snodgrass – West Ham v Crystal Palace (Sat, 1500) – 4/1 (Sky Bet)
Only two players have been booked six times in the Premier League this season and Snodgrass is one of them. He’s managed to collect those cards in his last 10 appearances, too, which is some going.
With that sort of run, I don’t think 4/1 should be available but it is. The Scot will likely have some defensive duties here with Palace danger man Wilfried Zaha playing down his side of the pitch and that’s another boon for his backers as the Ivorian remains one of the league’s most-fouled players, largely thanks to his dribbling ability.
Referee: Anthony Taylor (see above)
Wes Morgan – Leicester v Tottenham (Sat, 1945) – 5/1 (BetVictor)
Admittedly Morgan hasn’t been a serial card collector in his career but he’s almost 35 now and that has been shown at times this season.
He’s received six cards in his last nine games (all competitions), although two of those were second yellows so his ‘to be carded’ stats aren’t quite so good. Still, that’s a bad run he’s on (good from our perspective) and there have been several mis-timed tackles in that spell.
That doesn’t bode well for this Saturday night televised game where he’s likely going to facing one of the league’s best strikers in Harry Kane, not to mention the pace and dribbling of Lucas Moura and Son Hueng-min, the latter in particular having found something approaching top form in recent weeks. Throw in a card-happy ref (see below) and 5/1 begins to look awfully big.
Referee: Craig Pawson – Is showing, on average, 4.3 yellows per game – more than a whole card above the league average. Only one Premier League ref (Roger East) has a higher rate, while Pawson has also produced three reds in his 10 matches. One of those was shown to Morgan at Bournemouth in September. I rest my case.