A card for 2/1 shot Jefferson Lerma kept things ticking over in last week’s column and while there was no joy with the other tips, hopefully your staking plan resulted in another profit.
This week I’ve got three more anytime card selections for you at tasty prices of 7/2, 9/2 and 5/1.
Any thoughts/questions, feel free to let me known using the online form or via Twitter at @SchoolerSport.
Robert Snodgrass – Fulham v West Ham (Sat, 1730) – 7/2 (Sky Bet)
I mentioned Snodgrass’ bookings record last week and despite failing to pick up another against Crystal Palace, he has still been carded in six of his last 11 games. I’m happy to try again here with the Scottish winger set to have to deal with Ryan Sessegnon’s pace down his side of the pitch.
Fulham may be bottom but they do offer plenty of threat going forward (they’ve scored two or more against four other sides in the bottom half) and so Snodgrass will be required to track back.
As for the game as a whole, this may not be a renowned London derby but it has had six red cards in its last 14 renewals so there’s certainly potential for flashpoints. There’s a card-happy ref in charge (see below).
Referee: Mike Dean – Has produced a league-leading five red cards this season, while he’s shown 4.25 yellows per game – almost a full card above the league average. Another bonus is that Dean booked Snodgrass in another London derby (v Chelsea) in September. Looks an ideal appointment.
Cedric Soares – Southampton v Arsenal (Sun, 1330) – 9/2 (Unibet, 888Sport)
The Southampton right-back is ready to return to the starting XI having missed last week’s defeat to Cardiff with a calf injury and he looks a big price to pick up a card here.
The struggling Saints look set for another tough afternoon against a side now unbeaten in 22 games in all competitions. Notably, the Gunners attack down the left considerably more – 43 per cent to 34 on the right – so Cedric is likely in for a busy afternoon. Already booked four times this season, it’s six cards in his last 19 Premier League games if you go back to the end of 2017/18.
I tipped Cedric at Manchester City a few weeks back when he was 7/2. He wasn’t carded on that occasion but he’s now a full point bigger. That can be explained by the fact Southampton are at home, but this still looks likely to be a hard encounter with Sead Kolasinac (or Nacho Monreal) charging down his side of the field, while both Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang like to drift wide. He’s as short as 15/8 elsewhere.
Referee: Chris Kavanagh – Not the greatest appointment but hardly the worst either. Averages 3.1 cards per game so far this season, slightly below the league average. Still, he’s shown 10 cards in his last two games which may offer more optimism.
Glenn Murray – Brighton v Chelsea (Sun, 1330) – 5/1 (William Hill)
Murray isn’t keeping up with his card tally of last season when he was one of the most-booked players in the top flight, collecting nine in 35 games. It’s just two in 16 so far this term but the fact is he’s still committing plenty of fouls. Of those who have played more than one game, no-one has a higher fouls per game count than Murray’s 2.9.
Nine of his 11 cards over the past two campaigns have been dished out at the Amex Stadium, a fact which reflects that the ball goes up to him more in home games, making him more likely to commit fouls. I’m not a tipster who would ever suggest Murray is ‘due’ a card after 12 games without one, but what I do think is that his price has now got too big. He’ll be up against a solid defence here, one which could easily frustrate him, while in terms of individuals David Luiz doesn’t come across as a player you’d like to deal with on any level.
At 5/1, Murray is worth backing in this one, assuming he’s back in the XI which he should be given his outstanding goalscoring record at the Amex.
Referee: Stuart Attwell – It’s hard to know what you’ll get with Attwell. His first four games this season brought 18 cards. His last six have seen just nine with three of them complete blanks on the card front. Perhaps that partially explains why 5/1 is available about Murray. However, it usually pays to put weight on the long-term trends and in the whole of last season, Attwell averaged 3.6 yellows per game – the fourth highest of refs who took charge of more than one match. With Brighton having some of the worst discipline in the league, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Attwell returning to his early-season form.