Last week’s column brought a first blank in a long time (two losers, one void). Seven days on and I’m hopeful of a recovery with three tips in all – two card regulars and one longer shot.
I’m not sure exactly what I’ll be doing in terms of the column over the festive period so the best bet is to check my Twitter feed – @SchoolerSport – where I’ll post a link to any column/tips once available.
Here’s hoping these three give us all a Happy Christmas!
Jefferson Lerma – Bournemouth v Brighton (Sat, 1500) – 11/5 (Unibet, 888Sport)
I make no apologies for putting up the Colombian again – after all he’s made us plenty already this season.
The Cherries midfielder is now on a league-leading seven cards from just 13 appearances. Five of those have come in home games and, as regular readers will already know, those stats come on the back of his collection of 16 yellows in 26 La Liga games last season.
In short, Lerma attracts cards and while the opponents aren’t ideal (I’d prefer a quicker side on the counter-attack than Brighton), that’s compensated by a near-perfect ref (see below).
In any case, it’s not all bad with Brighton. Their midfield can be a spiky one with Dale Stephens sent off once and booked three times this season, while Glenn Murray’s knock downs tempt runners from deep who could trouble Lerma in his defensive-midfield role.
Referee: Mike Dean – Booked Lerma the only time he’s taken charge of a Bournemouth game this season and is running at a high yellows-per-game average of 4.15. He’s also dished out five reds.
Phil Bardsley – Arsenal v Burnley (Sat, 1230) – 23/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
I’ll keep this pretty simple.
Let’s look at Bardsley’s record while playing for Burnley. Last season, his first at Turf Moor, he picked up seven bookings in his 15 appearances in all competitions. This term it’s five in nine (including four in five Premier League games).
Overall, that’s 12 cards in 24 matches. The stats say he should be an even-money shot for another but instead you can get 23/10.
The opponents are good too – one of the better teams in the league, who should keep Burnley on the back foot for much of the contest. As pointed out in last week’s column, Arsenal also prefer to attack down their left, meaning right-back Bardsley should be in for a tough afternoon.
Throw in the fact that Bardsley will get Christmas off (well, Boxing Day any way) due to suspension if he’s carded again in this one, and the 23/10 looks a good price.
Referee: Kevin Friend – Fifth in terms of yellow cards shown per game; fourth for fouls given per game. A decent appointment for those wanting to see a few cards.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin – Everton v Tottenham (Sun, 1600) – 7/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
A long shot worth taking a risk on – if he’s in the starting XI, which is a possibility after he started and scored at Manchester City last week.
Again, look at DCL’s stats. Last season he received four cards in 18 Premier League starts; this time around he’s been booked on two of his five starts, including last weekend. Yet he’s offered at 7/1 here.
He gives more than the odd foul away when tracking back and that’s something he may find himself doing more often than he’d like in this match.
Spurs crushed Everton 7-0 across last season’s two matches and their strong form (which contrasts to Everton’s one win in six) means it could be a frustrating day for the home attack.
That’s the sort of scenario we’ve seen Calvert-Lewin pick up cards in before and at 7/1 he looks worth a poke.
Referee: Paul Tierney – Another high-carder this season – he’s averaging four per game, a figure which makes him the third-strictest in the division. In his last six games, Tierney has produced make-ups of nine, six and seven. He booked seven in the first half alone in his last match (Arsenal v Huddersfield). Basically, no worries for the bet on the ref front.