The reliable Jefferson Lerma kept the winners coming for the column last weekend, although the two other tips sadly disappointed.
As we head into the second half of the season, I’ve got four anytime card tips for this weekend’s action…
Fabian Schar – Watford v Newcastle (Sat, 1500) – 9/4 (Sky Bet)
It’s fair to say it’s taking time for the Swiss defender to get to grips with the English game following his summer move.
So far, he’s been booked in five of his eight Premier League games, including in the reverse fixture, a run which means he’s now received a card in nine of his last 15 competitive matches. That run comes on the back of a 10-yellow haul in 25 La Liga games last season.
Schar, who has won praise for his distribution but criticism for some of his positional play, was dropped/rested for the Boxing Day mauling at Anfield, that having helped the Magpies keep back-to-back clean sheets. Therefore there’s a strong chance he’ll be recalled to face a side who have returned to form in recent weeks.
Roberto Pereyra and Gerard Deulofeu are both tricky customers prepared to run at defenders, while Troy Deeney is exactly the English-type of forward that Schar won’t have seen that much of over the years.
Throw in a good referee appointment (see below) and Schar looks a solid play at 9/4.
Referee: Roger East – Leads the league for cards shown per game (4.67) although those stats have been accrued from only three games. Still, he’s been carding heavily enough in the Championship too (just under 4 per game). Last season, East was bang on the league average of 3.06. Looks a good man for this bet.
Phil Bardsley – Burnley v West Ham (1415, Sun) – 11/4 (Sky Bet)
With Matt Lowton suspended, Bardsley should return to the Burnley starting XI here and he has to be a bet at 11/4.
I tried and failed with Bardsley last weekend at Arsenal but despite drawing a blank on that occasion, he’s still managed to be booked in 12 of his 25 games for the Clarets, including in four of the six Premier League matches he’s played this season.
Maybe he held something back at the Emirates, knowing one more card would lead to a suspension, but the deadline for a five-card ban has since passed.
He dives in too regularly and now he’ll likely have to deal with the red-hot Felipe Anderson down his side of the field, a player who netted twice on Thursday at Southampton and also bagged a brace in the reverse fixture last month.
Anderson ranks seventh in the division for dribbles attempted and looks sure to draw challenges from Bardsley.
The only explanation for Bardsley’s price is the choice of referee (see below) but that’s more than built into the price. I rate him my best bet of the weekend.
Referee: David Coote – The Premier League newcomer averages fewer than two cards per game this season in the top flight, although he’s only taken charge of four matches. Given that small sample, it is wise to look at longer-term trends and if you look back to last season he showed at least four cards in 14 of his last 17 games. Coote is also averaging 4.00 cards per game in the Championship this term, figures which suggest the Premier League stat could simply be an anomaly.
Oleksandr Zinchenko – Southampton v Manchester City (Sun, 1415) – 15/2 (Sky Bet)
With Benjamin Mendy still injured and Fabian Delph suspended, Pep Guardiola faces a big decision about who to play left-back at St Mary’s on Sunday – a game they simply have to win following back-to-back defeats.
Zinchenko has to be the favourite. It may be wise to wait to see if that is indeed the case but if it is, then 15/2 will look a big price.
The Ukrainian, who made only two Premier League appearances this season, has had his defensive abilities questioned, most recently following the Carabao Cup tie with Leicester.
If he plays here, he’ll likely have those abilities tested, with Nathan Redmond favouring the right-hand side (he’s third for dribbles attempted behind only Wilfried Zaha and Eden Hazard) and lively teenager Yann Valery having added an attacking threat out wide in recent weeks.
City don’t usually receive many cards but then usually they are winning. It was notable that when the pressure was on at Leicester last week they picked up two yellows and Delph’s red.
Referee: Paul Tierney – Only three refs are averaging more yellows per game this season than Tierney’s figure of 3.83, earned across 12 games. That’s a significant increase on last term and encouraging for the bet.
Ashley Young – Manchester United v Bournemouth (Sun, 1630) – 5/1 (Sky Bet)
I’d expect Young to return at right-back for this game – the 33-year-old was benched against Huddersfield on Boxing Day having started Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s first game, the 5-1 win at Cardiff.
That will likely put him in Ryan Fraser’s firing line, the Scot who is enjoying an impressive season. Even if Fraser lines up on the right (a change which didn’t go well at Spurs the other day when the Cherries slumped to a 5-0 defeat), Junior Stanislas is more than capable of troubling Young, whose card record very much reflects the fact he’s a converted winger.
It’s five cards in 13 Premier League starts this season for the former England international, this following nine in 38 first-team games (all competitions) last term.
Bournemouth won’t be cowed by a visit to Old Trafford and despite some poor results of late, it’s hard to see them abandoning their attacking philosophy which saw them impress across Manchester at the Etihad recently.
Referee: Lee Mason – Having averaged 3.7 yellows per game thus far, he’s sixth in the table for bookings. In addition, no top-flight ref is awarding as many fouls per game (23.6) as Mason.
An added bonus is that Mason booked Young in his only previous United game this season (v Crystal Palace).