Cards for Ashley Young (5/1) and Fabian Schar (9/4) a fortnight ago saw this column end 2018 on a high.
Six of the last seven columns have now produced winners so we go into 2019 in good heart.
Here are four more anytime card suggestions for this weekend’s Premier League games, including a couple at 9/2.
Wilfried Zaha – Crystal Palace v Watford (Sat 1500) – 15/4 (Unibet, 888Sport)
A cards punter can’t beat a bit of bad blood and that looks likely to be on show in this game with these two sides having rattled each other’s cage in recent times.
Much of the beef has involved Zaha, the man who won the penalty – some say controversially – which ultimately decided the Championship play-off between the two sides in 2013. He certainly found himself targeted by some roughhouse tactics in the reverse fixture.
A few weeks after that game, Watford captain Troy Deeney admitted he and his team-mates “took it in turns kicking him”.
He added: “I know no-one wants to hear that, but you go: ‘You hit this time, you hit him the next time’. You don’t have the same player tackle him because you know you’re going to get booked.”
While this week’s referee is likely to be aware of this, it’s hard to see Watford going easy on Zaha given he remains Palace’s biggest attacking threat.
The Ivory Coast international responded and was booked in August’s match – his fourth card in seven games against Watford in the top flight.
Two of those were for diving, something which clearly rankled with the Hornets, whose mascot famously mocked him by diving along the touchline at a 2016 game.
Essentially this should be spicy and with Zaha having plenty of history against the Hornets, and also known to bite back when tested, 15/4 about him collecting a seventh Premier League card of the season looks decent.
Referee: Paul Tierney – Is showing 3.92 yellows per game in the Premier League this season, making him the third strictest official on that yardstick. He is a bit hit and miss though with his card numbers varying wildly from game to game. He was in charge of Wolves v Liverpool on Monday when he showed just the one card, but he’s also produced card counts of six, nine and six in his last five Premier League matches.
Phil Bardsley – Burnley v Fulham (Sat 1500) – 13/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
I’ve danced around Bardsley’s recent cards, backing him in games in which he’s failed to make it into the book and missing out when he has.
However, this looks a good game to go back in, especially at odds of 13/5 which defy the fact he’s been booked in five of his eight Premier League games this season. It’s six in 12 in all competitions, which means that his Burnley career has now brought 13 cards in 28 appearances.
The reason this game looks good for a Bardsley card is two-fold. First, it’s a huge one for both sides and surely both teams will be told to fight tooth and nail for what could be a vital win in the relegation fight.
Secondly, Fulham have plenty of talent which operates down the left (Bardsley looks set to play at right-back as long as he has recovered from a “minor strain”). That talent includes Ryan Sessegnon and Andre Schurrle, both tricky operators who will run at the full-back and draw tackles from a player who tends to dive in too often, certainly for officials’ liking.
Referee: Martin Atkinson – Sits in the middle of the ‘cards shown’ table, averaging 3.12 yellows per game which is a shade below the league’s average. Did book Bardsley last time he took charge of Burnley (against Brighton last month) though. Not the best appointment, but neither is he the worst.
Jason Puncheon – Cardiff v Huddersfield (Sat 1500) – 9/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
It’s definitely worth keeping an eye on new signings for the next month or so. They will often be players who will lack match sharpness having failed to get regular football at their previous club, or a signing from overseas not used to the English game’s pace and physicality.
Former Crystal Palace man Puncheon fits nicely into the first category. He made just three starts for Palace this season (all in the EFL Cup) and was booked in one of them.
Last season he collected five cards in 10 Premier League appearances for the Eagles. In 2016/17, it was nine in 36. Essentially, he’s a player who has a track record of picking up a booking.
Of course, there’s a chance he won’t start but in their position Huddersfield are signing players to make a difference to their starting XI, not simply to add squad depth. They’ve suffered nine straight defeats, scoring just five times in that run, and Puncheon does offer goal threat.
He did start last week’s FA Cup defeat to Bristol City and played the full 90 minutes so clearly isn’t that short on fitness.
The Terriers will be desperate for a result here against a relegation rival so it should be competitive and it’s not difficult to see Puncheon collecting a trademark card. At 9/2, he definitely looks wroth backing.
Referee: Lee Mason – A decent appointment for a bet of this sort. He’s averaging 3.55 yellows per game this season, putting him fifth on that particular list. Has shown five cards in two of his last four games.
Samir Nasri – West Ham v Arsenal (Sat 1230) – 9/2 (Sky Bet)
Nasri is another new signing who may well be worth backing at 9/2 for a card on Saturday.
I make him less likely to start than Puncheon – so it may well be worth waiting for the team news – but if he does, the price looks a good one.
Last weekend’s FA Cup win over Birmingham was Nasri’s first game in more than a year following his drugs ban so clearly he’s not going to be at 100 per cent going into a London derby which he has already admitted is likely to have a “crazy” atmosphere.
In it, he will be going up against a former club – one he left in acrimonious circumstances and the Arsenal fans are sure to be on his back throughout.
West Ham have an awful record against Arsenal so may look to take the battle to them physically, an area where they can match them. The Hammers have the fourth-worst disciplinary record in the top flight so it’s not hard to see Nasri getting sucked into such an approach.
Despite being an attacking midfielder, the Frenchman has got strong history in terms of card collection. His last full season (for Sevilla in La Liga) saw him booked seven times in 23 games. In his final season for Manchester City it was three in 12 Premier League matches and the year before that five in 24.
All in all, that makes 9/2 look a tad big and worthy of support.
Referee: Jon Moss – Another ref showing yellow cards at just below the league average, but he has produced four reds in his 14 games. Not particularly good or bad news for the bet.