Three anytime cards bets this week in the Premier League for you, including an 18/1 shot. Without further ado…
Kevin de Bruyne – Huddersfield v Manchester City (Sun, 1330) – 18/1 (Sky Bet)
This is simply a massive price.
OK, City and, in particular, De Bruyne are not prolific when it comes to picking up cards but there’s enough in the stats to show the price is wrong.
De Bruyne was booked in six of his 52 games (all competitions) last season and in six of 49 in 2016/17. This season he has just one yellow card to his name but he’s only started one Premier League game.
Those stats alone make 18s look wrong but then you have the circumstances surrounding the fixture.
First up, it’s Huddersfield’s first since the departure of boss David Wagner; caretaker Mark Hudson will lead them into this one.
His pre-match comments suggest very much that the Terriers will try to make this a physical battle.
“We want to make an impact and really fight for every single minute we are on the pitch,” he said. “We will be full of intent. Aggressive.”
Secondly, there could be some bad blood between De Bruyne and Huddersfield new boy Jason Puncheon, the man who made an awful challenge on the Belgian while playing for Crystal Palace last season. It left De Bruyne on crutches, while Puncheon injured himself and didn’t play again in 2017/18.
All in all, there’s no way this should be an 18/1 shot.
The obvious problem is De Bruyne may not start – he has been in the XI for two recent cup ties but was back on the bench against Wolves last weekend – but sooner or later the Belgian will be thrown back into the mix and a game against the league’s bottom side is arguably a great opportunity for Pep Guardiola to test him out.
Referee: Andre Marriner – Below average for cards shown, so not the best official to see with the whistle. That said, Marriner can get on a roll with flurries of cards, as shown in last month’s Manchester United v Arsenal game in which he showed five in six minutes.
Ashley Young – Manchester United v Brighton (Sat, 1500) – 5/1 (bet365)
I’ve put Young up a few times this season and he’s often delivered – it’s now six cards in 16 Premier League appearances for the former winger, who simply isn’t a natural in the right-back position where he’s expected to start in this game.
Admittedly, Brighton are likely to be on the back foot for much of this match but when they do attack they will likely do so in wide areas – they tend to get the ball to the flanks, looking to get balls into Glenn Murray (or Florin Andone).
Jurgen Locadia has impressed since being brought into Brighton’s team on the left and he’s capable of troubling Young with his pace and direct running.
Referee: Paul Tierney – Averaging exactly four yellows per game, Tierney is the second strictest ref in the top flight judged on that score. He also booked Young at Bournemouth earlier this season. Looks a great appointment for the bet.
Luka Milivojevic – Liverpool v Crystal Palace (Sat, 1500) – 11/4 (Unibet, 888Sport)
Palace’s defensive midfield shield is likely to be in for a busy afternoon at Anfield, a ground at which he’s been booked on one of his two previous appearances.
The famous home attack is blessed with pace and Liverpool’s ability to break at speed could well lead directly to another Milivojevic card.
He’s been booked in six of his last 14 league appearances (including in five of his last seven away games). That continues a trend from last season which saw the Serb carded eight times in 36 matches.
Very much a game-breaker, Milivojevic is as short as 6/5 to be booked elsewhere so 11/4 looks a good price.
Referee: Jon Moss – Not the best appointment but neither is he the worst. Moss is very much a mid-ranking ref in terms of card production in the Premier League.