It’s admittedly been a poor few weeks for this column, although in my defence January and February are traditionally ones where the card figures do drop.
It’s time to get back on the horse and there looks to be some value to be had in the anytime card market – I’ve got four tips for this week’s games and all of them involve TV matches.
Ben Mee – Burnley v Tottenham (Sat 1230) – 4/1 (Unibet, 888Sport)
The appointment of Mike Dean always attracts my attention. He loves to flash a card – full details below.
While Phil Bardsley, a regular in this column before Christmas, is an obvious candidate for a card, it’s Mee I like in this game at twice the price. He’s been carded in five of his last 13 league appearances and he’s likely to be in for a tough afternoon against an in-form Spurs side.
Harry Kane could even return following his ankle injury and whether that’s from the start or off the bench late on, it will mean problems for the Burnley skipper. He’ll also have the red-hot Son Hueng-min on his case and so 4/1 looks big here.
Referee: Mike Dean – Tops the averages for cards shown in the Premier League by some distance – he’s the only ref to be averaging over four yellows a game and it’s hardly marginal either (4.2). he’s also shown a league-high nine reds. Add in the fact that in the last three games he’s refereed in which Mee has played he’s ended up booking the defender, and this looks the ideal appointment for the bet.
Youri Tielemans – Leicester v Crystal Palace (Sat 1730) – 6/1 (bet365)
I mentioned new signing Tielemans a few weeks back only for him not to play. Typically he was booked when he finally made his debut the following week against Spurs.
That card took the Belgian’s tally for the season as a whole to 10 in 31 games. Clearly he’s not used to the English game just yet, while this match will be his home debut so you’d have thought he’ll be keen to impress, perhaps overly so.
All things considered, I’m at a loss as to why he’s 6/1 for a card against an in-form Palace side who can race through opposing midfields with their pace on the break.
Referee: Anthony Taylor –A so-so appointment for the bet – his card average is just over the figure for the league as a whole. He has, however, been showing more cards since the turn of the year with at least four shown in four of his five games this year.
Ricardo Pereira – Leicester v Crystal Palace (Sat 1730) – 9/2 (Unibet, 888Sport)
9/2 about a card for Pereira in Saturday’s late TV game is another price which looks to be good value. The Leicester right-back has been booked in five of his last 16 games and in this one looks set to go up against Wilfried Zaha.
My tactic of backing players charged with dealing with the Ivorian winger has paid dividends on several occasions this season. The thinking behind it is Zaha’s dibbling ability draws fouls, and it’s been proven. Zaha knows it too and he uses that ability regularly – he averages the most dribbles per game in the entire league.
Some will point out Leicester being the home side makes Pereira less likely to be carded but it’s worth noting that only three teams have picked up more yellows at home than Leicester, while they are one of only three to have received multiple red cards on their own patch.
In short, Pereira looks to be in for a tough afternoon and shouldn’t be the price he is to go into the notebook.
Referee: Anthony Taylor –see above
Luke Shaw – Manchester United v Liverpool (Sun 1405) – 29/10 (BetVictor)
In his 20 league games this season, Shaw has been booked in eight of them, figures which immediately suggest 29/10 is too big.
Now, it would be wrong not to point out that this fixture has produced fewer cards in recent years than most would probably expect – none of the last seven league games between the pair have seen more than four. By appointing Michael Oliver (see below) the league is perhaps hoping to keep that record going, but Shaw still has to be a runner at this price – he’s as short as 5/4 elsewhere.
The left-back will have the league’s top scorer Mo Salah in his area of the pitch, while he’ll also have to try to keep marauding full-back Trent Alexander-Arnold in check. There’s a lot at stake in this one so it’s not hard to see things getting a bit tasty and if it does, Shaw will do well to stay out of trouble.
Referee: Michael Oliver – One of the more lenient refs generally – he averages only 2.9 yellows per game, down on the league figure of 3.25. However, he has shown five reds so far this season and booked Shaw in one of the two United games he’s taken charge of.