After another blank weekend, it was somewhat annoying to see both Ben Mee and Luke Shaw booked in subsequent midweek games but there you go.
On we go – new month and all that – with three anytime card picks in the Premier League on Saturday, plus a venture into La Liga for what looks a strong bet in El Clasico.
Phil Bardsley – Burnley v Crystal Palace (Sat, 1500) – 12/5 (bet365)
Two players who have featured regularly in this column collide in this one – namely Phil Bardsley and Wilfried Zaha.
The wild-tackling Bardsley now has eight cards in 14 Premier League games this season and nine in 18 in all competitions, all of which means he’s now been carded in 16 of his 33 appearances for the Clarets. That’s some record.
In this one, the right-back will have to deal with Zaha. I’ll mention again that he’s the league’s most prolific dribbler and that skill is going to cause the Burnley man problems.
In his one game against Palace last season (he didn’t play in this season’s reverse fixture), Bardsley was booked for a foul on Zaha and I really like the 12/5 about him picking up another in this clash.
Referee: Lee Probert –Not the best ref if you are looking for cards, but the nature of Bardsley’s challenges often make it difficult for even a lenient ref to turn a blind eye. In any case, Probert will know of Bardsley’s reputation – indeed he has booked him the last two times their paths have crossed – and the fact that no side has picked up more yellow cards than Burnley this season.
Yves Bissouma – Brighton v Huddersfield (Sat, 1500) – 3/1 (Unibet, 888Sport, betway)
With two poor sides fighting for their Premier League lives, it’s not hard to envisage a real battle ensuing and with a strict ref in charge (see below), there’s plenty of potential for a card or two.
Mali international Bissouma certainly fits the bill in the anytime market. He’s collected five cards in his 14 starts for the Seagulls, including two in his last two, plus another as a substitute.
He has not started the last two league games but is widely expected to be the man who replaces the injured Pascal Gross.
Bissouma loves a tackle and while he hasn’t got an awful record for bad challenges, it won’t take much for a mis-timed one to attract the ref’s attention here.
Referee: Mike Dean – Ideal appointment, who makes the bet. Is averaging 4.19 yellows per game – almost a full card above the league average of 3.25. In addition, he’s shown a league-high nine reds. Stands for no nonsense and it’s easy to see him brandishing more cards in this one.
Andrew Surman – Bournemouth v Manchester City (Sat, 1500) – 13/2 (Sky Bet)
There’s got to be a bit of value here.
Surman has been filling in for another star of this column, Jefferson Lerma, in recent weeks, first due to the Colombian’s injury and now his suspension.
In the four games he’s started in Lerma’s defensive midfield position in that period, Surman has been booked twice.
Injury-hit Bournemouth have been struggling of late with teams ripping through them too regularly. Arsenal put five past them in midweek, Liverpool scored three earlier this month, while both Brighton and Watford also netted three times against the Cherries in January.
Given City’s goalscoring form, something similar an be expected here with Surman certainly in for a busy time in front of the home defence where the visitors will look to utilise the trickery of David Silva et al.
All things considered, 13/2 is simply too big.
Referee: Kevin Friend – An above average carder – the fifth strictest in card terms in the league this season. Admittedly he has slowed down with his cautions in recent times, although that pattern fits the average for this time of year and he was back booking four players in Cardiff v Everton in midweek.
First card before 22:00 – Real Madrid v Barcelona (Sat, 1945) – 5/6 (bet365)
I’m sure plenty readers will be having a bet on El Clasico but the anytime market is always one to avoid in this fixture – the bookies know cards are, well, on the cards, and make huge cuts to their regular prices.
Value remains in other markets though and for this match the one I like is time of the first card. Based largely on historical stats, bet365’s over/under line of 22 minutes looks too high to me.
Firstly, the bet has landed in 16 of the last 23 ‘Clasicos’.
Secondly, it has also landed in seven of referee Alejandro Jose Hernandez Hernandez’s Primera Division games this season. With a whopping 81 yellows in 12 games, he is the league’s highest carder and is regularly handed the whistle for a Real-Barca clash.
This will be the fourth season in a row he’s taken charge of El Clasico and in the previous three he’s shown his first card in the 12th minute twice and the 10th minute once.
With Real desperate for a win, expect this to be 100mph stuff from the off – and to see a card in the opening quarter of the contest.
A word of warning: last time I put up a bet from La Liga it failed miserably, but I simply had to bring this one to your attention – I’ll definitely be backing it myself.