This column’s poor run was rather summed up last week by the fact that the bet I really fancied, Phil Bardsley to be carded against Crystal Palace, was somewhat thwarted by the Eagles’ decision to switch their danger man, Wilfried Zaha, to the other side of the pitch.
There was potentially another piece of bad luck when the referee I’d highlighted as a big carder in Spain pulled out of El Clasico late on, but we did still get the early card predicted so perhaps the luck is beginning to turn.
On we go with two anytime card bets this week – one shortie and one value selection.
Wilfried Zaha – Crystal Palace v Brighton (Sat, 1230) – 9/2 (Unibet, 888Sport)
The rivalry between these two sides should not be underestimated and the in-form Zaha is sure to be a target of both Brighton players and fans at Selhurst Park.
He hasn’t always responded to such treatment particularly well – remember his autumn TV rant against the supposed lack of protection he was receiving? – and that is, to an extent, reflected in his record against the Seagulls.
He’s been booked in four of his nine appearances against them, including this game last season and the reverse fixture earlier in the current campaign, while he’s also netted five goals in those matches. Essentially, this is a game which gets Zaha fired up.
Given the winger has already been carded in nine of his 27 games this season, 9/2 is surely too big about him collecting another in this contest.
Referee: Craig Pawson – an above average card issuer in the Premier League, Pawson is the seventh strictest in terms of yellows shown. No complaints over this appointment for the bet.
Granit Xhaka – Arsenal v Manchester United (Sun, 1630) – 15/8 (bet365)
I haven’t put serial card collector Xhaka up in this column very often but this week looks a good one for him to enter the fray.
The defensive midfielder is often a short price and that’s the case again but this game looks almost ideal for him to head back into the book.
Xhaka has been carded in 11 of his 30 games, including three of the last five. But it his record against the better teams which really stands out.
So far in 2018/19 he’s played nine matches against the other members of the Premier League’s ‘Big Six’ and picked up six cards.
The Swiss missed the reverse fixture (due to suspension) but his record against United is also encouraging with four cards in seven previous encounters, including his time with Basel.
United are flying right now – they’ve won a club record nine away games in a row under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer – and are using pace as a much greater weapon than they did under Jose Mourinho.
It would be no surprise to see Xhaka over-stretched in a breakaway, just as he was when booked for a foul on Harry Kane last weekend, especially with Paul Pogba returning to the side following his midweek ban.
Referee: Jon Moss –The numbers show Moss is a fraction below the average number of yellow cards per game, although he has made up for that with his five reds. With five of the last seven meetings between the sides producing at least six cards, it’s not that difficult to see Moss reaching for his book on a regular basis.