Two bets this week from a coupon which offers a mix of Premier League and FA Cup games.
One is a shortie and the other a juicy long shot, but both look to offer plenty of value.
Jefferson Lerma to be carded – Bournemouth v Newcastle (Sat, 1500) – 19/10 (Unibet, 888Sport)
They say in times of struggle turn to what you know but there’s more to this bet than simply backing a player who has earned this column plenty of profit already this season.
No-one has collected more cards in the Premier League this season than the Colombian. He’s picked up 10 in 22 games and now faces a rejuvenated Newcastle, a team who have looked particularly good on the break since the introduction of January signing Miguel Almiron. They could cause Lerma problems in his defensive-midfield area.
Admittedly Lerma has picked up just one card in his last seven but the appointment of Mike Dean for this match means it’s time to go back in, particularly given Unibet and 888Sport are prepared to dangle 19/10.
Dean is the second strictest top-flight referee this term, issuing on average 4.18 yellow cards per game – almost a whole card above the league average.
Significantly he’s also put Lerma’s name in the book in both of their meetings this season so knows all about the midfielder’s ability to commit fouls.
No bookings in Swansea v Manchester City (Sat, 1720) – 14/1 (bet365)
There aren’t too many games these days which don’t feature a card but here we have a near-perfect storm and 14/1 looks to represent plenty of value.
First up you have Swansea, the Championship’s cleanest team – by a distance. They’ve received just 34 yellow cards in the league this season – the next best figure being Hull’s 53.
Secondly, Manchester City are among the best-behaved sides in the Premier League, only Liverpool and Chelsea have seen fewer cards.
Finally, the referee appointment is a great one. Andre Marriner is among the most lenient officials. In the Premier League, his fouls-per-game figure is the second lowest and that’s also reflected in the cards he’s shown – just 2.86 yellows per match, well below the average.E
In the FA Cup, Marriner has taken charge of three games and issued just two cards. Notably, each game saw a top-flight team face one from a lower division, as is the case here.
In the last round, Marriner didn’t produce a card when Man City headed to Newport and I feel at 14/1 it’s worth backing him for a repeat in this one. You’ll find the price listed in the ‘first player booked’ market.