Last week’s picks disappointed but weren’t helped by team selections – two were void and another appeared only as a late substitute so the damage wasn’t particularly big.
It will likely be the same this week with several of my anytime card tips below not guaranteed to start so the advice is to wait for the team news before placing your bets.
Matthew Lowton – Burnley v Cardiff (Sat, 1500) – 3/1 (bet365)
With Phil Bardsley having gashed on his leg on a table tennis table while playing head tennis, Lowton played in last week’s win at Bournemouth and looks set to start his first home game since Boxing Day in this one.
While Bardsley is a regular in the book, Lowton isn’t too far behind on the card stats – he’s collected seven in 19 games in all competitions this season, including four in the seven home games he’s played.
He was also booked in the reverse fixture and this game should be hard-fought with Burnley on a good run and Cardiff potentially in the last-chance saloon – defeat here would really leave them staring at relegation so expect them to have a real go at the home defence.
With this in mind, it will be worth seeing if Leandro Bacuna, 12/5 with the same firm, is in the Cardiff starting XI – he’s a player I’ve mentioned in the column before and his record suggests the midfielder could easily find himself in the book in a game like this.
Referee: Mike Dean – This appointment makes cards likely. Dean is the second strictest in terms of yellows shown; he averages almost a full card more than the league mean. It’s worth noting he’s booked Bardsley the last three times their paths have crossed so if he does recover and starts, you know what to do.
Ryan Bertrand – Southampton v Wolves (Sat, 1500) – 19/5 (BetVictor)
The pace of Wolves could trouble the England international in this one and he looks worth a try at the price.
He’s been carded in seven of his 18 games this season, including the reverse fixture at Molineux. Four of those have been at home, including last week’s loss to Liverpool.
Playing in something of a wing-back role at present, Bertrand will also have to deal with Wolves’ Matt Doherty, whose forward runs have helped ensure praise has been heaped upon him this season.
Referee: Jon Moss – Showing yellow cards almost bang on the league average but has also produced five reds. Booked Bertrand the only previous time this season that they’ve been involved in the same game.
Jesse Lingard – Manchester United v West Ham (Sat, 1730) – 10/1 (Sky Bet)
With a low-carding ref in charge, this is only a small-stakes long shot but if Lingard plays 10/1 is just too tempting.
He’s made just two starts in the last two months (a hamstring injury not helping) but with Barcelona looming on Tuesday night, this could well be a game which sees him come back into Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s XI.
If he does, he’ll be keen to impress and win back his place on a permanent basis and Lingard is the sort of excitable character who will put in an energetic display – perhaps a little too energetic.
He’s been booked in four of his last 19 appearances, while United are bottom of the league’s fair-play table. West Ham have only received seven fewer yellow cards and this should be a competitive game with United desperate for points as they chase a top-four finish and West Ham still potentially eyeing Europe themselves.
Referee: Graham Scott – Admittedly a bit of a problem in this bet and he helps explain why 10/1 is on offer. Scott is one of the lower card issuers – indeed he’s failed to produce one in three games this season with none of his matches featuring more than four. Still, with two fairly feisty teams on display, I’m prepared to take a risk on Lingard – as long as he’s in the starting XI, so it’s a case of wait and see (hopefully the price, or something close to it, will remain).
James Milner – Liverpool v Chelsea (Sun, 1630) – 4/1 (Unibet, 888Sport)
Liverpool and Chelsea may be two of he cleanest teams in terms of cards in this season’s Premier League but eight were shown in their League Cup tie back in the autumn.
This clash, which will bring back memories of Steven Gerrard’s famous slip in the 2014 title race run-in, should also be hard fought with both sides badly needing points to fend off their chasing rivals for the championship and a top-four finish respectively.
Milner is potentially very interesting. Again, I’ve picked out a potential non-starter so it’s another case of wait for the team news, but the facts are he’s been carded in seven of 28 starts this season, while since joining Liverpool he’s played eight times against Chelsea and been carded in four of them.
Milner won’t be at left-back as he was in the week as Andy Robertson’s suspension is over but he could play either in midfield, where Chelsea always provide a physical battle with the likes of Jorginho, or right-back where he impressed as a substitute at Southampton last weekend.
The latter would be ideal as it would likely put him in the firing line of Eden Hazard. Let’s see who’s on the teamsheet at 1530.
Referee: Michael Oliver – Shows yellow cards at just below the league average but has also produced an above-average number of reds (six in total). Booked Milner last time out against Manchester United (when he played at right-back).
Ross Barkley – Liverpool v Chelsea (Sun, 1630) – 4/1 (bet365, Unibet, 888Sport)
Again, far from guaranteed to start but as a childhood Evertonian, this game will mean plenty to the England midfielder, who is sure to receive plenty of flak from the home fans.
That’s reflected in his record against the Reds – he’s been carded in four of his seven starts against them, although all were in the blue of Everton.
It is that stat and the likelihood of a feisty encounter which attracts me to the price but team news will need to be assessed before any bet is placed.
Barkley will probably be on the bench but with the second leg of their Europa League quarter-final to come on Thursday, Maurizio Sarri’s selection cannot be predicted with any great certainty.
Referee: Michael Oliver (see above)