Ryan Bertrand was a nice 19/5 winner for last week’s column and now I’ve got three anytime card tips for this weekend’s Premier League action.
Again, team news will be key to some of them, so take note.
Adam Masina – Huddersfield v Watford (Sat, 1500) – 10/3 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
First things first with this tip – Masina looks certain to play at left-back (or left wing-back) in this one with fellow card gatherer Jose Holebas still out injured.
Masina has been very much a like-for-like replacement on the card front, having been booked in four of his nine Premier League starts.
Relegated Huddersfield may not be a side threatening to cause him his biggest problems of the season but notably their attack is right-side heavy – 42 per cent of their attacking play goes down the right third of the field which is the joint-highest figure in the league.
Only Burnley have collected more yellow cards than Watford this season and with a strict ref in charge (see below), Masina’s price looks tempting.
Referee: Roger East – Averaging 4.63 cards per game, he’s just 0.01 behind the division’s leading ‘carder’ Mike Dean and is a major factor in this bet.
He’s already booked Masina this season (against Newcastle in December) and a look through his games shows a notable trend for booking full-backs. If you include team-mate Daryl Janmaat playing on the right side of a back three, East has booked at least one full-back in seven of his eight Premier League games this season.
Maybe it’s a statistical quirk but it could also be showing how he’s quick to penalise anyone trying to stop a flying winger by foul means.
Leandro Bacuna – Cardiff v Liverpool (Sun, 1600) – 16/5 (Sky Bet)
I’m banging the Bacuna bandwagon again but this week may finally see him actually starting (don’t place the bet until the teams are published is the advice).
That’s because Aron Gunnarsson is a doubt with a back injury and Bacuna is on stand-by to make his first start since February 26 in the Icelandic star’s defensive midfield role.
Doing so against the high-flying league leaders would be a tough task, particularly given the Reds’ ability to break at speed with the now-famous front three.
Bacuna’s card stats are pretty strong – he’s been booked in one of his two starts for Cardiff so far.
Prior to his move in January, he picked up four cards in his last 11 Championship games for Reading. Last season with the Royals he received 11 in 39 (all competitions), while in his previous Premier League spell – with Aston Villa in 2015/16 – he was carded in eight of his 27 starts.
Referee: Martin Atkinson – Issuing cards at just under the league average so not the greatest appointment. Not the worst either, it has to be said, and has booked six Cardiff players in his three games with them this season.
Phil Bardsley – Chelsea v Burnley (Mon, 2000) – 9/5 (Sky Bet)
Another column regular and another player who might not start, so again a team news check will be worthwhile.
However, the buzz is good. Boss Sean Dyche said earlier in the week that he thought the right-back would “be right” for this game – he’s missed the past two due to a cut on his leg.
Bardsley is a serious card accumulator having been booked in nine of his 19 Premier League games this season, helping the Clarets become the team with the most yellow cards in the division. Overall, his career record at Burnley has involved 17 cards in 38 appearances across all competitions.
In this match, he’s likely to be up against Eden Hazard, the league’s second most prolific dribbler. I say likely because the Belgian took a bit of a battering against Slavia Prague on Thursday; he could also play centrally as he often has done this season.
However, that’s not a huge worry. Willian, only a sub in midweek, is also a tricky customer for any full-back to deal with, as is Callum Hudson-Odoi, and Bardsley has a propensity to dive in and make silly challenges.
Referee: Kevin Friend – A strong appointment for a cards bet; he’s the third strictest in the league in terms of yellows shown. There’s also good news if Hazard does start as Friend has a proven track record of dishing out punishment for fouls on the tricky Belgian – he’s issued cautions in all three games in which the pair of them have been on the field this season (v Man Utd, Everton and Liverpool).