Two voided selections last week made it all a bit of a waste of time and continued a frustrating trend – trying to second-guess team news can be a problem.
However, I’ve got a strong pick up first this weekend – one who should definitely play…
Mark Noble – Tottenham v West Ham (Sat 1230) – 11/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power, betway)
Noble was a 3/1 winner for this column in the reverse fixture and a marginally smaller price is no reason not to go in again, particularly with West Ham now being the away side.
The Hammers midfielder is West Ham through and through. Living the dream has become a cliched phrase used to parody these days, but in its original sense it relates very much to Noble.
He grew up in Beckton, just a few miles from the Boelyn Ground and certainly not too far from their current London Stadium home. As a West Ham fan, he would also have been brought up to dislike Spurs and that’s something which has shone through in his record against Tottenham over the years.
Noble’s booking back in October made it 10 yellow cards in 20 league appearances against Spurs, including five in the last seven. Away from home, the stats are even stronger – Noble has been booked in six of his last seven against Spurs at either White Hart Lane or Wembley.
The most cards he’s racked up against any other club is five.
This season as a whole, Noble has been carded in seven of his 28 Premier League games.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Noble sets out determined to make his mark on Spurs’ new stadium and West Ham as a whole would take great pride in becoming the first team to win there.
All in all, Noble looks a cracking bet at 11/4 to pick up a card.
Referee: Anthony Taylor –Admittedly not the greatest appointment; he’s just under the league average for cards shown. However, a look through his record shows the cards often come out in clashes between fierce rivals – Taylor produced six in Spurs v Arsenal last month and the same number when Man City hosted Liverpool in January.
Yves Bissouma – Brighton v Newcastle (Sat 1730) – 11/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power, betway)
With card machine Mike Dean in charge (more on him below) and Brighton scrapping for their Premier League lives, I’m keen to get with at least one of the Seagulls in this clash.
Bissouma is the man I’m plumping for – the midfielder has been carded in six of his 21 starts in all competitions this season, while he’s also collected another card as a substitute.
Five of his seven cards have come at the Amex Stadium, including two in the last four games there.
He started against Spurs in midweek when battling Brighton almost held out for a point before conceding late on.
Chris Hughton could opt for a more positive approach and send the Mali international back to the bench, although he’s rarely shown a penchant to really go for it and another safety-first approach would be no surprise, even against a side who have already secured their Premier League status.
That’s not ideal for the bet but I’d still expect the midfield to be a battleground and Bissouma’s fouls-per-game figure is ‘bettered’ only by fellow midfielder Dale Stephens – another strong card candidate at 7/2 – and Glenn Murray.
Cardiff could be level on points with Brighton by kick-off (the Welsh winning at Fulham is hardly beyond the realms of possibility) and the hosts simply have to scrap their way to some sort of result here.
Expect the likes of Bissouma to be busting a gut to help achieve that.
Referee: Mike Dean – Issues well over a card a game more than the league average. Only Roger East has shown more yellows per game but when you add in Dean’s 10 red cards, his overall card average makes him the strictest official in the top flight. It’s not hard to see him clamping down on any over-zealous challenges – of which there should be some – in this game.