Yves Bissouma was an 11/4 winner for us last week, booked in Brighton’s crucial clash against Newcastle.
The Seagulls are one of several teams who will be scrapping for vital points this weekend but many of the penultimate round of Premier League matches feature a side with nothing but pride to play for and that’s not particularly appealing for cards bets.
Instead I’ve focused on the one match guaranteed to mean plenty to both sides – as well as taking a punt on the game in which nothing will be at stake.
Jamie Vardy – Manchester City v Leicester (Mon 2000) – 4/1 (Sky Bet, Unibet, 888Sport)
This is the only game of the weekend in which something is guaranteed to be at stake for both teams.
City obviously have the title to win – if Liverpool slip up on Saturday, this could be the clincher for the hosts – while Leicester will know victory will keep them in the hunt for European football next season, no matter how Wolves get on against Fulham on Saturday.
With a high-carding referee in charge too (see below), it makes sense to look for angles here and the first I’ve found is to back Vardy.
The former England striker is in red-hot scoring form but constantly plays with a scowl on his face and is always ready to get in a ref’s ear.
Despite his form, Vardy can easily become frustrated and that could well be the case if he gets short shrift from a City backline that is one of the best in the business.
Dean has been responsible for three of the four cards Vardy has received this season and it’s with this in mind I’m prepared to make a small play on the striker at the odds.
Referee: Mike Dean – In terms of cards per game, Dean is the highest issuer in the league. He’s shown 4.37 yellows per game, more than a whole card above the league average, and produced no fewer than 10 reds.
His track record for booking Vardy has already been mentioned, while in terms of Leicester as a whole, he’s shown 11 cards to Foxes players in four matches this season. The reverse fixture was among those games, with Dean showing five cards on that occasion.
Oleksandr Zinchenko – Manchester City v Leicester (Mon 2000) – 10/1 (bet365)
Zinchenko looks set to start at left-back again here and while his improved form of late has been praised, he still looks a player who can be ‘got at’ by a good winger and Leicester have plenty of those.
He looks most likely to be up against Marc Albrighton and I just don’t believe he’s a 10/1 chance for a card here, especially given the choice of ref.
Admittedly, the converted midfielder does not have a strong track record for cards but he has been booked in two of his last five starts, including the recent big game in the title race against Manchester United.
The Ukrainian looked tense in the early stages of that one and was booked after a couple of early fouls.
The games aren’t getting any smaller for City given what’s at stake so the player who is arguably their third-choice left-back looks worth a small punt at the price.
Referee: Mike Dean – see above
No cards – West Ham v Southampton (Sat 1500) – 16/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power, Sky Bet)
With nothing really riding on this game – West Ham can’t qualify for Europe and Southampton are now safe from relegation – it might just be worth a bet on very little actually happening.
Both sides are essentially on the beach now and this is the weekend’s only game where nothing is at stake.
The referee is very much in the mind when it comes to suggesting a no-cards wager.
Stuart Attwell has already failed to issue a card in three of his 19 Premier League games this season and he’s also had two others with just one shown.
Crucially, Attwell has been under fire this past week after his performance in the Leeds v Aston Villa game so there’s good reason to believe he’ll be looking to keep his cards in his pocket if he can.
The teams night not play ball – for example, Southampton have the fourth highest total when it comes to yellow cards – but as already touched upon, there’s a decent case to be made that they simply won’t be too bothered about flying into tackles in this one.