This final column of the season will take a somewhat different approach to cards betting – but with good reason.
While usually I’m on the lookout for players likely to be booked, on the final day of the season it could well pay to look for matches in which few cards will be shown.
The general theory is that little is at stake come mid-May. That’s the case this year too with the top-four, Europa League and relegation issues all already sorted.
The stats back it up too. Just take a look at the final day last season. Of the 10 games, two saw no cards issued and three had only one shown. For a ‘matchday’ in the Premier League, such figures are pretty rare.
This season only 24 of the 370 matches played so far have not seen a card brandished – that’s well below one per matchday. Yet, for the final day of a season you have to go back to 2013 to find an occasion when all 10 matches featured a card.
Final-day games without a card:
2017/18 – 2
2016/17 – 1
2015/16 – 2
2014/15 – 1
2013/14 – 1
My approach this week is therefore two-fold – find games which could see no cards at all and also put together an ‘unders’ accumulator.
You can find my recommendations below.
One final thing – thanks for reading this column this season. It was something a bit different but after some early success things did tail off rather in the second half of the season which was disappointing.
I’m not sure at this stage if I’ll continue it in 2019/20 but whatever I decide, I’ll keep people informed on my Twitter feed, @SchoolerSport.
No cards in Fulham v Newcastle at 9/1 (bet365)
Key to my thinking here is referee Kevin Friend. Although he’s been a fairly high carder on average this season, he’s also shown no cards in three of his 26 matches. No ref has more no-card games.
Significantly he’s also been appointed referee for next weekend’s FA Cup final so I suspect he’ll want to avoid any controversy this week and will only card players if he absolutely has to.
Friend was one of the officials who failed to show a card on the final day of last season, while he only produced one on the last day in 2016.
Neither side has anything to play for so this looks worth a go.
It’s worth noting the bet can be backed in the ‘first card received’ and the ‘first player booked’ markets.
No cards in Leicester v Chelsea at 12/1 (bet365)
With a top-four finish already guaranteed and a Europa League final to come, expect plenty of changes and fairly relaxed attitude for this game from Chelsea.
Leicester don’t have anything at stake either – their Europa League hopes bit the dust at the Etihad on Monday night.
Both sides are well below the average in terms of yellow cards collected – only five teams have seen fewer than the Foxes and one of those is Chelsea.
Referee Anthony Taylor is around the league average for cards shown but he’s had two games in which he’s shown none which bodes well.
Again, this is a tempting price and worth a small punt.
Under 2.5 cards shown in each of Fulham v Newcastle, Leicester v Chelsea, Southampton v Huddersfield and Tottenham v Everton at 13.18/1 (bet365)
I’ve already made my case for a lack of cards at Fulham and Leicester (see above).
As for the game at Southampton, this features one of the most lenient referees in the league this season, Lee Probert. He averages only 2.65 per game and two of his 17 games have seen no cards at all. That was also the case for his final-day game in 2014.
In Probert’s last-round match this season, the away team are down in 17th in terms of yellow cards collected and while Southampton are much higher in that list, they are at home and will be expected to win. Again, with so little at stake, this makes the coupon.
The final game of the acca, at Spurs, features two teams well down that yellow-cards-shown list, while ref Andre Marriner is another who likes to keep his cards in his pocket. He averages 2.73 per game and produced none on the final day in 2017.
Tottenham’s players will certainly be keen to avoid injury with the Champions League final looming and that fact may also reduce silly tackles in the sense that boss Mauricio Pochettino may frown upon them as he mulls over his final selection – everyone will want to play in Madrid next month and won’t want to be in their manager’s bad books.
Under 20 bookings points in each of Fulham v Newcastle, Leicester v Chelsea, Southampton v Huddersfield and Tottenham v Everton at 86.75/1 (BetVictor)
A similar bet to the one above but one which basically means all four games will need to feature one card or none at all. Yes, unlikely, but, in my opinion, not as unlikely as the odds suggest.
I’ll throw a bit of loose change at this one, too.