Those of you who have read my tennis and football previews over the years will know I like trying to find a spot of value.
Here’s my attempt to do just that for the 2019 Cricket World Cup, which gets under way on Thursday.
Top batsman
Tamim Iqbal each way – 66/1 (various, ¼ 1-4)
It is surely only the fact that Tamim plays for Bangladesh that his odds are so high.
His statistics are extremely strong and sit right up there with many of the market leaders.
First up, it is worth mentioning that the opener finished third on the run charts at the 2017 Champions Trophy in England.
That effort is part of the reason he averages 50.71 in England – well ahead of his career average of 36.26.
However, that latter figure is also somewhat misleading in terms of the here and now.
Since the start of 2017, Tamim has averaged 60.64 in one-day internationals. In that period he’s reached 50 in 16 of his 31 games.
Some will be quick to suggest some of the opponents in that run were weaker than those gathered here. That’s true to an extent, but only five of those 31 matches came against sides who won’t be involved in this tournament.
In short, Tamim is overpriced, even when you consider Bangladesh are likely to eliminated in the group stage.
However, the format for the 2019 World Cup means that even the first eliminated team will play a minimum of nine matches – the winners will play 11.
So, a rival may get two extra games but does that really warrant a price of 66/1?
For me, the answer is no.
It is also worth pointing out at this stage that four years ago Zimbabwe’s Brendan Taylor finished fourth in this market. His side played just six games, winning only one.
Shai Hope each way – 33/1 (Betfred, ¼ 1-5)
If Tamim’s form over the past couple of years has been excellent, then take a look at that of Shai Hope.
A bit like Joe Root for England, Hope is the glue which holds the West Indies’ batting together and allows others around him to tee off.
Since the start of 2018, he averages north of 66 and even when you remove the ‘not outs’ from those figures, he is still averaging a highly-impressive 54 every time he takes to the crease.
In that period, Hope has made five tons and six half-centuries.
Admittedly, Hope’s average in England drops significantly, although his figures are based on only four matches. In addition, that effort was preceded by a Test series in which he hit two 100s and a 50 so it’s not as if England is full of bad memories.
Set to come in at three, Hope looks well placed to challenge in this market, especially if the Windies can force their way into the semi-finals which is far from beyond the realms of possibility.
Top bowler
Andile Phehlukwayo each way – 100/1 (Betfred ¼ 1-5)
I’m not hugely enthused by the top wicket-taker market but a player who catches the eye at a big price is South African Phehlukwayo.
First, a word of warning. He isn’t guaranteed to start, although I do expect him to claim the all-rounder’s role in the Proteas’ side.
Secondly, another concern – even when he does play he’s unlikely to bowl 10 overs in a game too often.
But that hasn’t stopped him racking up the wickets in ODI cricket so far in his career and in his last 17 matches he’s collected no fewer than 28. He also bagged four more in a warm-up game against Sri Lanka last week.
The fact the paceman is often trusted with the death overs is one of the reasons behind his success – batsmen desperate for runs can hand away ‘easy’ wickets in such situations.
The aforementioned 28-wicket haul has been collected across games on home soil, as well as in Sri Lanka, Australia and Zimbabwe. In England, he’s played just two games, taking three wickets.
If he can continue that run over the next month or so, then he’s certainly in with a shout.
Betfred offer five places in their each-way terms but 100/1 is also available elsewhere with bookies paying four places.
Most sixes
Chris Gayle – 7/1 (Paddy Power, bet365, Sky Bet)
Gayle is the favourite here but even at 7/1 there looks to be value in the price.
His recent figures are simply remarkable.
In 2018, he hit 22 sixes in nine ODIs. So far this year, it’s 39 in just five. That’s 61 sixes hit in his last 14 one-day internationals, an average of well over four per game. None of his main rivals averages over two in the same period.
In addition, Gayle arrives here fresh from smashing 34 maximums in 13 Indian Premier League matches – the second most in the tournament, behind his international team-mate Andre Russell. It’s worth noting at this stage that Gayle opens the batting, while Russell will be coming in as a finisher at six or seven.
Winner of this market in 2015, Gayle is one of the biggest hitters the game has ever seen and simply loves to tee off when he feels the time is right. That is often – though not always – from the word go.
Having taken England’s attack for 14 and 12 sixes in two games in their recent series, it’s possible Gayle could wrap up this prize with two big innings.
With this in mind, it’s notable that the West Indies will take on Bangladesh in Taunton – the home ground for Gayle during his stint in English domestic cricket and one of the smaller ones in this tournament.
Rohit Sharma – 16/1 (Sky Bet)
While Gayle’s six-hitting is head and shoulders above anyone else’s in ODI cricket over the past 18 months, Sharma is very much among the chasing pack.
The Indian opener has hit 55 in his 32 ODIs since the dawn of 2018, an average of 1.72 per game.
It is far from insignificant that he also featured in this market at the 2017 Champions Trophy in England, hitting seven in five games to earn a place. Sadly this time around, firms are betting win-only.
Still, I can’t resist a bet at 16/1.
Eoin Morgan – 33/1 (bet365, Sky Bet)
England’s batting line-up has been much talked about and rightly so.
Jos Buttler has been grabbing most of the headlines in recent weeks and if it’s not been him playing a leading role then Jonny Bairstow or Jason Roy has been to the fore.
However, Morgan’s contribution should not be forgotten, especially when it comes to six-hitting. The bookies, though, may have such amnesia.
In that study period since the start of 2018, there is very little between the four England stars when it comes to sixes hit. Buttler averages 1.34 per game and the other three all have a figure of 1.25.
Yet when it comes to the market, Buttler, Bairstow and Roy are all 16/1 or shorter whereas Morgan can be backed at more than twice that price.
Morgan stepped up in Champions Trophy two years ago, hitting seven sixes in four games to, like Sharma, earn a place in the market.
He’ll need to do better this time if he’s to win outright but at 33/1 it’s worth paying a small fee to see if he’s capable. He does look it.
Fastest 50
Thisara Perera each way – 20/1 (Sky Bet, ¼ 1-3)
With 17 sixes in nine ODIs so far in 2019, I considered Perera in the most sixes market at 50/1 but he comes in down the order as a finisher and so chances may be limited.
That will be a concern to some, although given the standard of the current Sri Lankan team, it seems unlikely he’ll be denied an opportunity to bat. The problem may be that he actually comes in earlier than ideal.
However, if we take it that he’s going to get chances to smash some late runs in the final 10 overs, he’s also got a chance of landing this prize.
With the winner of this market likely to have to score his 50 in 30 balls or fewer, the all-rounder’s history fits the bill.
Perera has six such half-centuries on his CV, including a 28-ball one earlier this year in New Zealand, a country whose conditions are always favourably compared to those found in England.
What is also a major factor in putting up this bet is the venues Perera will be playing at.
Sri Lanka have two games in Bristol and two in Cardiff. Both are grounds where the boundary size will favour the batsman – the former sees its playing surface reduced by temporary stands for international cricket, while the latter’s almost square shape often means there’s a fairly short boundary somewhere.
Perera has eight 50s in his last 40 ODIs – an average which suggests he will make another during this tournament. Fingers crossed it will be a quick one.
Highest 1st 15 overs
Bangladesh – 22/1 (BetVictor)
This smacks of a value bet.
As already highlighted, Bangladesh have a class performer at the top of the order in Tamim Iqbal, one who would slot into other teams at this tournament.
His strike-rate isn’t particularly eye-catching – a factor which helps explains the price – but he is capable of putting his foot down, as he’s shown in the recent tri-series in Ireland.
In any case, it his opening partner Soumya Sarkar who is likely to be the man given licence to tee off.
He has hit 20 sixes in his 12 ODIs in the past 12 months.
The pair look capable of quickly putting together a big stand.
Specifically it looks most likely to come in games at Cardiff, Bristol and Taunton – against England, Sri Lanka and West Indies respectively, three of the weaker bowling units in the tournament.
It’s small stakes only but 22/1 looks worth a try.