The last Mark Your Card column was a source of regret.
I didn’t put James Milner up for a card after the Friday team news suggested he wouldn’t, after all, have to play at right-back against the league’s most prolific dribbler, Wilfried Zaha.
He did actually start and was duly booked – twice – for fouls on the Crystal Palace winger, although at least followers of my Twitter account (@SchoolerSport) got the advice to back him once the team news was known.
Any way, let’s hope for better this week in both he Premier League and La Liga – I’ve mentioned a special game in the latter which should provide a route to profit this week.
To be carded
Jason Puncheon – Chelsea v Huddersfield (Sat 1500) – 5/1 (bet365)
I mentioned Puncheon a few weeks back without enjoying a profit but he did earn the first card of his Huddersfield career in midweek against Everton.
The midfielder has now been booked in six of his last 11 Premier League starts and I’m happy to back him at 5/1 to see if that run continues.
If should certainly be another tough game for the Terriers despite Chelsea’s 4-0 horror show against Bournemouth the other day. Boss Maurizio Sarri said afterwards that he’s not sure how to motivate his players but that line in itself should draw a response.
What we do know is that Chelsea have recovered from every defeat they’ve had this season by winning the next game and Puncheon looks in for a busy day with the likes of Jorginho and Mateo Kovacic buzzing around him.
Referee: Paul Tierney – Ranks second in the Premier League for yellow cards issued. Also managed to card four Huddersfield players when they visited Arsenal earlier in the season. A good appointment for the bet.
Youri Tielemans – Leicester v Manchester United (Sun 1405) – 3/1 (Betfred)
I’ll certainly be monitoring the deadline-day signings over the next few weeks, particularly those new to the Premier League.
Tielemans is one who immediately stands out, although clearly it’s not certain he’ll start this one so it may well be worth holding onto your cash until the teams are out.
What is known already is that there’s a strict ref in charge (see below), while the player himself has been carded nine times this season in 30 games for Monaco.
This will be the youngster’s first taste of the English game with even Leicester boss Claude Puel admitting he “needs to have some adaptation”.
It could be quite an introduction for the midfielder with a rejuvenated Paul Pogba and an in-form United to deal with – remember they have yet to lose under interim boss Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.
Referee: Mike Dean – Leads the league averages for both yellow and red cards shown per game – he’s averaging over four yellows a match (the league average being 3.25) and has shown nine red cards in his 18 matches thus far.
Asier Illarramendi – Real Sociedad v Athletic Bilbao (Sat 1515) – 11/8 (BetVictor)
This column is supposed to be all about Premier League cards but I’m making an exception this week as two of my best bets come in the Basque derby – arguably Europe’s purest derby encounter given the number of locals who play in it.
It’s therefore no surprise to see it has a history for cards; the last eight bookings points make-ups have been, most recent first, 110-115-30-90-60-130-70-75.
Former Real Madrid man Illarramendi is a proud Basque. He’s also a serial card collector. Just look at the defensive midfielder’s card tally in La Liga since joining Sociedad in 2015:
15/16 – 15 cards in 33 games
16/17 – 13 cards in 34 games
17/18 – 9 cards in 36 games
This season he’s been booked in seven of his 18 starts.
However, the real reason I’m prepared to play at 11/8 is his remarkable ability to be booked in this particular game – he’s started the Basque derby on 11 occasions and been cautioned in 10 of those matches.
Referee: Antonio Mateu Lahoz – One of the more card-happy officials in the Primera Division. He also issued 10 cards on the only previous occasion he took charge of the Basque derby.
Time of first card
Before 21:00 – Real Sociedad v Athletic Bilbao (Sat 1515) – 5/6 (bet365)
My other bet in the Basque derby is on an early card.
You’ll see above that the game is usually good for a high number of cards but they often come early too.
Here are the first-card times in the last 10 (most recent first): 19-13-56-26-6-5-8-12-13-12.
It’s when you couple those stats with the referee that you see how good a bet this is.
The aforementioned Lahoz has issued a card inside 18 minutes in 12 of his 17 club games this season; he likes to clamp down early and if ever there was a game for such a tactic, this is it.
William Hill will give you 17/10 about there being a card in the first 15 minutes – as you can see that’s happened in seven of the last 10 Basque derbies. There looks to be value in that price too, but I’ll take the safer option of bet365’s market.